Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Markets Stay Cautious Amid Geopolitical Uncertainties (08.14.2026)​

Global markets remained caught between cooling US inflation and persistent Middle East risks. Softer US CPI and core PPI data reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike to around 35%, supporting gold despite recent profit-taking and helping risk assets.

In Europe, however, inflation expectations remained elevated at 2.4%, above the ECB's 2% target, after July CPI reached 2.9%. Combined with 0.4% Q2 GDP growth, this kept expectations for a 25-basis-point ECB hike in September intact and supported the euro near $1.153.

Geopolitics remained centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where stalled US-Iran negotiations continued to threaten energy supplies and inflation. Brent held near $87, with shipping continuing despite security risks.

Elevated energy and import costs also weighed on the Japanese yen, which traded near 159.4 per dollar. Meanwhile, softer US inflation helped the US 100 Tech Index advance, while Bitcoin remained under pressure near $63,280. The offshore yuan eased toward 6.74, driven mainly by a weaker PBOC fixing rather than geopolitical developments.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro hovered near $1.153 on Friday as markets evaluated Middle East geopolitical friction, uncertain US-Iran agreement signals, and energy-driven inflation risks
• The Japaneseyen hovered near 159.4 per dollar on Friday, heading toward a 1% weekly decline as the lack of fresh official intervention encouraged traders to hold short positions.
• The British pound pulled back below $1.35 as investors weighed solid UK economic indicators against ongoing Middle East geopolitical friction. Second-quarter UK GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, meeting forecasts, backed by a stronger 0.3% rise in June.
• The offshore yuan eased toward 6.74 per dollar on Thursday, surrendering earlier gains after a softer PBOC midpoint fixing weighed on sentiment.
• Gold dropped below $4,350 per ounce on Friday, extending recent pullbacks as traders took profits while weighing Federal Reserve policy expectations against Middle East developments.
• Silver slid below $64 per ounce on Friday, continuing previous losses as investors secured profits and reevaluated Federal Reserve monetary policy. Cooler US core producer price data for July further confirmed moderating inflation following earlier soft CPI figures
• Bitcoin traded near $63,280 on Friday, August 14, slipping 126 points or 0.20% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency registered a 2.24% drop over the past four weeks.
• Brent crude stabilized around $87 per barrel on Friday following earlier losses, as traders carefully tracked diplomatic discussions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Nasdaq 100 Index traded near 29,985 on Friday, August 14, climbing 342 points or 1.15% from the prior session.

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[Z Forex]

Hedge funds purchased $6.8 billion in US equities last week, the largest weekly inflow in 18 years and the ninth-largest relative to S&P 500 market capitalization since 2008.

Combined with $4.8 billion bought the previous week, two-week purchases reached a record $11.6 billion, lifting the four-week average to $1.8 billion.

In contrast, institutional investors sold $1.1 billion for a second straight week, while retail investors sold $4.1 billion, pushing their four-week average sales to $500 million. Hedge fund demand for US stocks continues to accelerate sharply.

 

[Z Forex]

Weak U.S. Data Supports Metals and Currencies (08.17.2026)​

The US 10-year yield held near 4.69% after rising about 5bps Friday. Michigan one-year inflation expectations climbed above 4% for a fifth month, while the US-Iran ceasefire expires today with Hormuz talks still stalled. Despite softer inflation, consumer sentiment, and retail sales data, the probability of a September Fed hold has risen to 67% from below 50% a month ago.

The Dollar Index fell for a third session to around 99.5 as softer US data reduced Fed hike expectations. The probability of a September hold now stands near 67%, compared with below 50% a month ago. Focus turns to the FOMC minutes, Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and Empire State and NAHB data, with the dollar weakest against the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and pound.

US stock futures edged higher as attention shifted to earnings from Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart. Wednesday’s Fed minutes are also in focus after softer inflation reduced September hike expectations. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained for three straight weeks, helped by strong earnings despite Middle East and AI concerns.

Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to 2.93%, its highest since 1996, as expectations for a BOJ hike grew. Q2 GDP expanded 1.1% annualized, below the 2% forecast, as weak domestic demand offset strong exports. The BOJ recently raised its FY2026 growth forecast to 0.6%, while yen weakness and inflation support calls for tighter policy.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro strengthens near 1.1570 against the dollar, challenging resistance around 1.1600 as US dollar exceptionalism loses steam. Middle East tensions and climbing EU natural gas prices linger as risks for both currencies.
• The Japanese yen strengthened to around 159 per dollar Monday, clawing back some of last week's losses as a softer dollar followed weaker US data, with markets now seeing roughly 67% odds of a September Fed hold, up from below 50% a month ago.
• GBP/USD trades near 1.35, maintaining a steady consolidation pattern. Technical levels show firm support at 1.3400 and strong resistance at 1.3600 as the market awaits a clear breakout catalyst.
• The USD/CNH pair traded tight near 6.7412, holding a narrow range between 6.7401 and 6.7461 amid low volatility across Asian and early European sessions.
• Gold climbed above $4,400/oz, extending gains as soft US data trimmed Fed rate hike odds to roughly one-in-three from near 50%, following tame inflation and weaker consumer sentiment and retail sales.
• Silver climbed toward $66 per ounce on Monday, extending recent gains as soft US economic reports, including muted inflation, declining retail sales, and weakening consumer sentiment, reduced September Fed rate hike probabilities to roughly one-in-three.
• Bitcoin traded under moderate pressure near $62,777, showing mild intraday stabilization above local support at $62,500.
• Brent crude held above $88/barrel, extending last week's gains as Middle East tensions stayed elevated after Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
• The Nasdaq-100 closed under mild pressure at 30,046.14, down 0.13%, as technical profit-taking offset optimism around a cooling macro backdrop.

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