Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Markets Stay Cautious Amid Geopolitical Uncertainties (08.14.2026)​

Global markets remained caught between cooling US inflation and persistent Middle East risks. Softer US CPI and core PPI data reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike to around 35%, supporting gold despite recent profit-taking and helping risk assets.

In Europe, however, inflation expectations remained elevated at 2.4%, above the ECB's 2% target, after July CPI reached 2.9%. Combined with 0.4% Q2 GDP growth, this kept expectations for a 25-basis-point ECB hike in September intact and supported the euro near $1.153.

Geopolitics remained centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where stalled US-Iran negotiations continued to threaten energy supplies and inflation. Brent held near $87, with shipping continuing despite security risks.

Elevated energy and import costs also weighed on the Japanese yen, which traded near 159.4 per dollar. Meanwhile, softer US inflation helped the US 100 Tech Index advance, while Bitcoin remained under pressure near $63,280. The offshore yuan eased toward 6.74, driven mainly by a weaker PBOC fixing rather than geopolitical developments.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro hovered near $1.153 on Friday as markets evaluated Middle East geopolitical friction, uncertain US-Iran agreement signals, and energy-driven inflation risks
• The Japaneseyen hovered near 159.4 per dollar on Friday, heading toward a 1% weekly decline as the lack of fresh official intervention encouraged traders to hold short positions.
• The British pound pulled back below $1.35 as investors weighed solid UK economic indicators against ongoing Middle East geopolitical friction. Second-quarter UK GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, meeting forecasts, backed by a stronger 0.3% rise in June.
• The offshore yuan eased toward 6.74 per dollar on Thursday, surrendering earlier gains after a softer PBOC midpoint fixing weighed on sentiment.
• Gold dropped below $4,350 per ounce on Friday, extending recent pullbacks as traders took profits while weighing Federal Reserve policy expectations against Middle East developments.
• Silver slid below $64 per ounce on Friday, continuing previous losses as investors secured profits and reevaluated Federal Reserve monetary policy. Cooler US core producer price data for July further confirmed moderating inflation following earlier soft CPI figures
• Bitcoin traded near $63,280 on Friday, August 14, slipping 126 points or 0.20% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency registered a 2.24% drop over the past four weeks.
• Brent crude stabilized around $87 per barrel on Friday following earlier losses, as traders carefully tracked diplomatic discussions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Nasdaq 100 Index traded near 29,985 on Friday, August 14, climbing 342 points or 1.15% from the prior session.

Check more on zForex.com | Technical Outlook on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Hedge funds purchased $6.8 billion in US equities last week, the largest weekly inflow in 18 years and the ninth-largest relative to S&P 500 market capitalization since 2008.

Combined with $4.8 billion bought the previous week, two-week purchases reached a record $11.6 billion, lifting the four-week average to $1.8 billion.

In contrast, institutional investors sold $1.1 billion for a second straight week, while retail investors sold $4.1 billion, pushing their four-week average sales to $500 million. Hedge fund demand for US stocks continues to accelerate sharply.