Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Stocks Have Beaten Housing Over the Long Run​

Over the past 50 years, US stocks have delivered much stronger returns than home prices.

Since 1975, the S&P 500 has produced an average annual total return of 12.2%, including dividends. US home prices increased by around 5.1% per year over the same period.

Even without dividends, the S&P 500 returned about 9.3% annually. That still leaves stocks well ahead of the housing market.

The gap becomes wider after inflation. Real stock returns averaged 8.3% per year, compared with only 1.4% for home prices.

The takeaway is simple. Housing can provide stability, rental income, and leverage, but stocks have been the stronger long-term wealth-building asset based on historical returns.

 

[Z Forex]

Fed in Focus Amid Easing Tensions (07.27.2026)​

US stock futures rose as a weekend pause in US-Iran hostilities sent oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns. Despite the truce, Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities kept supply risks in focus. Attention now turns to earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Visa, Exxon, Starbucks, Ford, and PayPal, along with Wednesday's Fed decision, where rates are expected to stay unchanged.

More S&P 500 companies are raising guidance than lowering it, with 93% beating earnings estimates versus a 78% historical average. Stocks have still struggled to build momentum as concerns over AI spending, geopolitical risks, and rich valuations persist. Gains have also broadened beyond Big Tech into sectors such as energy and semiconductors.

The US Dollar Index slipped to around 101.2 as lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns following the US-Iran truce.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.64%, retreating from six-month highs as easing geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices lower. Markets now wait for the Fed meeting, Q2 GDP, PCE data, and a busy week of earnings for further direction.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro traded at $1.1411, up 0.14%, holding above the key $1.1400 level after a bullish gap. The ECB left rates unchanged while signaling a likely September hike, as higher oil and gas prices kept inflation concerns alive.
• The yen strengthened to around 163.5 per dollar as the dollar and oil prices retreated following the pause in US-Iran hostilities. Despite the rebound, the currency remained near a 40-year low.
• The British pound fluctuated around $1.33, remaining close to multi-week lows as safe-haven demand from Middle East friction and new U.S. tariffs sustained the dollar.
• Offshore Chinese Yuan traded around 6.7700 as traders assessed the PBOC's liquidity measures and China's growth outlook. The central bank set a slightly stronger daily fixing at 6.7911 and injected CNY 500 billion through its MLF facility.
• Gold rose 1% toward $4,100, rebounding from a nine-month low as oil prices fell after the US and Iran paused hostilities over the weekend.
• Silver rose over 2% toward $60, rebounding from eight-month lows as crude prices tumbled following a weekend pause in U.S.–Iran conflict. The U.S. suspended its two-week strike campaign while Iran ended retaliatory strikes to initiate talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
• Bitcoin traded near 65,160, edging higher as $274 million in weekly ETF inflows improved institutional sentiment. Lower oil prices also eased inflation concerns after the weekend pause in the US-Iran conflict.
• Brent fell as much as 7% below $90 before recovering part of its losses after the US suspended strikes on Iran for a second straight night.
• The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.22% to 28,474 as easing geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices improved sentiment.

Check more on zForex.com | Technical Analysis on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of CB Decisions (07.28.2026)​

Global markets traded cautiously ahead of key central bank meetings, with investors focused on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan for fresh policy signals.

The Dollar Index held near 101.5 before the Fed decision. Markets still price over a one-third chance of a rate hike this week and 56% odds for September, while easing US-Iran tensions had little impact on the greenback.

The 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.64% as traders looked to the Fed for policy signals. Lower oil prices eased inflation concerns but did not change rate expectations.

US stock futures edged lower as chipmakers extended their decline. Focus now shifts to earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple, along with the Fed announcement.

Japan's 10-year yield hovered near 2.77% ahead of the BOJ meeting. Rates are expected to stay unchanged, while the prospect of future tightening and fiscal concerns kept yields supported.

Economic Calendar​

• EUR/USD trades near 1.1374, staying close to multi-month lows as the dollar remains supported by firm US data and expectations of a hawkish Fed.
• The yen hovered around 163.7 per dollar, remaining close to a four-decade low as expectations of a possible Fed rate hike continued to support the dollar.
• GBP/USD fluctuated near 1.3295 as cautious risk sentiment supported the dollar ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings. While both central banks are projected to hold rates steady.
• USD/CNY trades around 6.7661, recovering modestly after touching a 52-week low. A slightly weaker daily fixing from the PBOC helped limit yuan strength.
• Gold slipped toward $4,050, giving back recent gains as traders assessed the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week.
• Silver fell toward $57 per ounce, remaining under pressure as traders weighed a roughly 35% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week. Citadel Securities noted a rate increase would reinforce Chair Warsh's inflation-fighting credentials.
• Bitcoin trades around $63,279, easing about 0.65% after failing to sustain its breakout above $65,000. Attention has shifted to tomorrow's Fed decision, while $465 million in ETF outflows weighed on spot demand.
• Brent extended its decline toward $87, marking a third consecutive session of losses as hopes for easing tensions between the US and Iran improved the supply outlook.
• The Nasdaq-100 slipped 0.32% to 28,039.21 as traders trimmed exposure to semiconductor stocks before a busy week of earnings and central bank decisions. Focus now turns to results from Microsoft, Meta, and Apple, together with Wednesday's Fed meeting.

Check more on zForex.com | Technical Outlook on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Gold Holds Near $4,028 Ahead of the Fed​

Gold is trading near $4,028 after falling toward $4,040 earlier in the session. Traders are reducing risk ahead of the Fed decision, while easing US-Iran tensions have also weakened the immediate safe-haven demand.

Markets still see some chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Even without a hike, a hawkish Fed message could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, adding more pressure on gold.

The downside has remained limited around the $4,000 psychological level. Dip buying and continued ETF inflows suggest investors are not fully abandoning gold, especially while geopolitical risks around the Middle East remain unresolved.

Technically, the picture is neutral to slightly bearish. Gold remains below its key moving averages near $4,209 and $4,345, while RSI around 49 shows little directional strength. MACD is improving, which suggests the recent selling pressure may be losing momentum.

For now, $4,000 is the main support to watch. A clear break below it could extend the decline, while a recovery above $4,209 would improve the short-term outlook. Until the Fed decision, gold may remain volatile and headline-driven.