Fed in Focus Amid Easing Tensions (07.27.2026)
US stock futures rose as a weekend pause in US-Iran hostilities sent oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns. Despite the truce, Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea facilities kept supply risks in focus. Attention now turns to earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Visa, Exxon, Starbucks, Ford, and PayPal, along with Wednesday's Fed decision, where rates are expected to stay unchanged.
More S&P 500 companies are raising guidance than lowering it, with 93% beating earnings estimates versus a 78% historical average. Stocks have still struggled to build momentum as concerns over AI spending, geopolitical risks, and rich valuations persist. Gains have also broadened beyond Big Tech into sectors such as energy and semiconductors.
The US Dollar Index slipped to around 101.2 as lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns following the US-Iran truce.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around
4.64%, retreating from six-month highs as easing geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices lower. Markets now wait for the Fed meeting, Q2 GDP, PCE data, and a busy week of earnings for further direction.
Economic Calendar
- The euro traded at $1.1411, up 0.14%, holding above the key $1.1400 level after a bullish gap. The ECB left rates unchanged while signaling a likely September hike, as higher oil and gas prices kept inflation concerns alive.
- The yen strengthened to around 163.5 per dollar as the dollar and oil prices retreated following the pause in US-Iran hostilities. Despite the rebound, the currency remained near a 40-year low.
- The British pound fluctuated around $1.33, remaining close to multi-week lows as safe-haven demand from Middle East friction and new U.S. tariffs sustained the dollar.
- Offshore Chinese Yuan traded around 6.7700 as traders assessed the PBOC's liquidity measures and China's growth outlook. The central bank set a slightly stronger daily fixing at 6.7911 and injected CNY 500 billion through its MLF facility.
- Gold rose 1% toward $4,100, rebounding from a nine-month low as oil prices fell after the US and Iran paused hostilities over the weekend.
- Silver rose over 2% toward $60, rebounding from eight-month lows as crude prices tumbled following a weekend pause in U.S.–Iran conflict. The U.S. suspended its two-week strike campaign while Iran ended retaliatory strikes to initiate talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
- Bitcoin traded near 65,160, edging higher as $274 million in weekly ETF inflows improved institutional sentiment. Lower oil prices also eased inflation concerns after the weekend pause in the US-Iran conflict.
- Brent fell as much as 7% below $90 before recovering part of its losses after the US suspended strikes on Iran for a second straight night.
- The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.22% to 28,474 as easing geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices improved sentiment.
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