Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

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Gold Gets Support From Geopolitical Risk​

Gold is trading in a mixed setup. US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks keep safe-haven demand alive, but higher-for-longer Fed expectations and a stronger dollar are still limiting the upside.

Short-term pressure remains possible if Treasury yields keep rising. Markets are also pricing a higher chance of another Fed hike, which can weigh on gold because it offers no yield. A deeper pullback could bring the $4,000 area back into focus.

Still, the bigger picture remains supportive. Central banks continue to build gold reserves as geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and global fragmentation increase demand for non-dollar reserve assets.

Technically, XAUUSD is still below the 50-day SMA, so the trend has not fully turned bullish yet. RSI near 49.8 is neutral, while the rising MACD shows selling pressure is fading.

For now, resistance is around 4,056, 4,068, and 4,075. Support stands at 4,036, 4,029, and 4,017. A break above resistance could support recovery, while failure near these levels may keep gold choppy.

 

[Z Forex]

Markets Stay Defensive Amid Tensions (07.09.2026)​

U.S. Central Command executed additional targeted airstrikes against Iranian assets to preserve freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The military action followed repeated Iranian assaults on commercial vessels transiting international waters. As the conflict entered its second day, Tehran vowed to retaliate against regional American military installations, intensifying broader geopolitical friction.

These escalating hostilities severely disrupted financial markets, pushing energy prices higher and renewing structural inflation anxieties. Reflecting these macroeconomic concerns, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilized near a seven-week high of 4.58%. Strong safe-haven demand lifted the dollar index toward 101, positions underpinned by shifting monetary policy expectations. While recent Federal Reserve minutes revealed minimal immediate appetite for tightening, market participants are increasingly pricing in a rate hike before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Wall Street equity futures stabilized on Thursday as investors adjusted to the shifting macroeconomic landscape. This followed a mixed cash session where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.09% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.28%, while energy and technology shares helped the Nasdaq Composite post a marginal 0.2% gain. Market participants are now focused on upcoming initial jobless claims, housing data, and corporate earnings reports.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro consolidated near $1.14, languishing close to a one-year low as rising energy costs stoked inflation worries and fueled ECB tightening expectations, darkening the regional growth outlook.
• The yen hovered near 162.50 per dollar on Thursday, remaining close to forty-year lows as the expanding U.S. conflict with Iran drove crude prices higher, squeezing Japan's energy-dependent economy.
• The pound retreated to $1.335 from a multi-week peak as climbing oil prices stoked inflation fears, clouding the UK economic outlook. Brent hit recent highs following renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, with Donald Trump declaring the truce over at the NATO summit.
• The offshore yuan appreciated to approximately 6.79 per dollar, snapping a three-day losing streak as accelerating producer price inflation softened domestic deflation anxieties.
• Gold fell for a second session below $4,100 an ounce Thursday as intensifying Middle East conflict stoked inflation and supply concerns.
• Silver remained capped below $59 an ounce on Thursday, declining for a second session as expanding Middle East hostilities triggered industrial supply chain and inflation worries.
• Bitcoin dropped 1.5% to 2.5%, trading around $61,800 to $62,300 as escalating Middle East tensions prompted a risk-off rotation that unwound leveraged long positions.
• Brent crude surged toward $79 a barrel, capping a nearly 10% weekly gain as sustained U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian threats to Strait of Hormuz navigation.
• The Nasdaq 100 faced selling pressure near $29,170, testing its 200-period moving average amid a semiconductor retreat and changing Federal Reserve rate expectations.

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Warsh Unveils Fed Task Forces​

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced the members of five new task forces focused on communications, balance sheet policy, data, employment, and inflation. The groups include leading economists, former central bankers, and business figures such as Mervyn King, Raghuram Rajan, Raj Chetty, Marc Andreessen, Greg Mankiw, and Thomas Sargent. Their goal is to conduct a broad review of the Fed's policy framework and provide recommendations for future decision-making.

Financial markets responded to a mix of monetary policy developments and easing geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar Index slipped toward 100.5, marking its third consecutive daily decline as ongoing US-Iran peace talks reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Lower oil prices also eased inflation concerns, although markets continue to expect at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year. New York Fed President John Williams noted that AI-driven demand remains an important source of inflationary pressure.

The US 10-year Treasury yield also edged lower to around 4.54%, extending its decline for a second session as falling energy prices improved the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, US stock futures were little changed following Thursday's rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remained on track for weekly gains, supported by strength in semiconductor shares. AI-related stocks continued to see mixed trading as valuation concerns persisted, though SK Hynix's heavily oversubscribed US share offering helped achieve confidence across the sector. Micron, Sandisk, and AMD were among the session's strongest performers, aided by easing oil prices and improving geopolitical sentiment.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro stabilized near $1.145, holding gains from June’s one-year low as investors weighed a potential September ECB rate hike against cooling Eurozone inflation.
• The Japanese yen advanced past 161.5 per dollar on Friday, erasing earlier weekly losses as market participants remained alert for official intervention following recent 40-year lows.
• The pound advanced past $1.34, hitting its highest level since mid-June, as investors increased Bank of England rate-hike expectations amid intensifying U.S.–Iran frictions.
• The offshore Chinese yuan appreciated to approximately 6.78 per dollar on Friday, reaching its strongest level in nearly three weeks
• Gold held steady above $4,120 an ounce on Friday, concluding a turbulent week flat as investors assessed Middle East geopolitics
• Silver stabilized near $60 an ounce on Friday, though it remained on track for a weekly loss as market participants monitored Middle East developments.
• Bitcoin climbed 2.18% over 24 hours to trade near $63,844, stabilizing after its late-June recovery from $57,750.
• Brent crude stabilized near $76 a barrel on Friday, down 2% on the session following reports that U.S.–Iran peace talks will persist despite recent shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.62% to trade near 29,727.10, recovering from a semiconductor-driven pullback that tested support at 29,200.

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[Z Forex]

Markets Await Inflation Amid Conflicts (07.13.2026)​

CENTCOM conducted fresh military strikes against Iranian positions to diminish Tehran's capacity to threaten commercial shipping throughout the Strait of Hormuz. Ordered by Donald Trump, this operation followed a previous massive intervention that destroyed approximately 140 Iranian military assets via aircraft, drones, and naval munitions.

In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy declared the crucial shipping lane closed until further notice, halting one non-compliant vessel with warning shots and warning neighboring states against assisting Western forces.

While the United States insists the channel remains open, this severe geopolitical escalation is creating significant waves across financial markets. Historically, the S&P 500 experiences initial volatility during the onset of such tightening cycles before recovering over a longer horizon.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that subsequent inflationary pressures could drag equity indexes lower by forcing the Federal Reserve to implement restrictive interest rate hikes, despite otherwise resilient corporate earnings reports. Although the investment bank anticipates steady rates in the near term, market participants are rapidly pricing in 50 basis points of monetary tightening by mid-2027.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro remains weak against the dollar, hovering near the critical 1.1400 threshold as geopolitical conflict fuels safe-haven demand for the dollar.
• The USD/JPY pair consolidated within a narrow range ahead of key U.S. inflation metrics, retreating from recent multi-decade peaks while preserving its overarching bullish trajectory.
• The GBP/USD pair traded under pressure near 1.3400 as intensifying Middle East conflict drove safe-haven dollar demand, neutralizing previous sterling gains from soft U.S. employment figures.
• The USD/CNY pair extended its steady downward correction, approaching critical support thresholds. The PBOC actively adjusted its midpoint fixing to counter market volatility amid trimmed Chinese growth projections from Beijing and the World Bank.
• Gold dropped beneath $4,100 an ounce on Monday, remaining under pressure as ongoing U.S.-Iran missile strikes drove crude prices upward, intensifying expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes to contain inflation.
• Silver fell below $59 an ounce on Monday, extending recent losses as escalating U.S.–Iran missile exchanges drove oil prices higher, intensifying expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening.
• Brent crude jumped over 3% past $78 a barrel on Monday, reversing a two-day decline as escalating U.S.–Iran missile friction threatened shipping lines.
• The Nasdaq 100 stabilized near record peaks following a two-day recovery, maintaining a 16% year-to-date advance.
• Bitcoin established short-term upward momentum, recovering from recent lows to reclaim its 100-day moving average.

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Analysis on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Dollar Index Holds Firm Above 101​

The dollar gained support from renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices, which revived expectations that the Fed may need to stay restrictive against inflation risks.

Technically, the Dollar Index remains strong above the 101.00 level. If DXY breaks and holds above 101.80, buying momentum may accelerate again, with the next upside zone coming into focus.

 

[Z Forex]

CPI is in Focus as Geopolitical Risks Persist (07.14.2026)​

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mocked President Trump's proposed 20% transit fee for cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that Iran, not the US, is responsible for securing the waterway and calling the proposed charge excessive.

Tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and US futures lower after President Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade on Iranian vessels. Rising energy costs revived inflation concerns ahead of US CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony. Bank earnings are also in focus, while chipmakers, including Sandisk and Intel, extended losses on concerns that AI spending could slow.

The Fed will maintain Treasury bill purchases at $10 billion per month, alongside $17.6 billion in reinvestments through August 13, to help offset declining reserves. Since late 2025, the Fed has gradually reduced purchases from $40 billion to $10 billion while keeping the option to pause quantitative tightening if liquidity conditions deteriorate.

President Trump warned that the US would "hit Iran very hard" and identified the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz as a potential target. CENTCOM confirmed that US airstrikes entered a third consecutive night, with operations focused on reducing threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic Calendar​

• EUR/USD traded around 1.1385, remaining under pressure as renewed US strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raised demand for the US dollar.
• USD/JPY traded near 162.43, just below its 40-year high of 162.84. Rising oil prices continued to pressure the energy-importing Japanese economy.
• The pound slipped under $1.34 as Middle East hostilities pushed crude prices higher, elevating inflation concerns and strengthening Bank of England rate-hike expectations.
• USD/CNY traded near 6.7802 after the PBOC set a strong daily fixing at 6.7972, helping stabilize the yuan despite broad dollar strength.
• Gold held near $4,000 after Monday's 3% decline as renewed tensions between the US and Iran kept markets cautious.
• Silver stayed depressed below $58 on Tuesday following a steep 4% drop. Pressures intensified after Donald Trump reinstated a shipping blockade on Iranian ships and proposed transit fees, driving oil higher and sparking fresh inflation concerns
• Bitcoin traded near $62,030, extending its pullback after falling below $64,000. Slower ETF inflows and MicroStrategy's planned $1.25 billion share sale added further pressure.
• Brent crude climbed above $84 per barrel, bringing weekly gains to more than 10%. Prices surged after President Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade on Iranian vessels and proposed a 20% cargo fee for Gulf countries.
• The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.44% to 29,237.80 as higher oil prices and recent expectations for Fed tightening weighed on technology shares.

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Geopolitical risks surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep oil prices high.

With Brent crude holding above $84 a barrel, energy prices are expected to remain one of the biggest inflation risks in the months ahead.

 

[Z Forex]

Softer U.S. Inflation Supports Metals (07.15.2026)​

The US launched fresh airstrikes on Iran and confirmed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, effective 11:00 PM local time (4:00 PM ET), as part of efforts to reduce threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump abandoned his proposed 20% transit fee for Hormuz cargo, choosing to pursue trade and investment agreements with Gulf states instead. He reiterated that the strait remains open to all shipping except Iran-linked vessels, which remain under a full US blockade.

US futures moved higher after June inflation slowed to 3.5%, below expectations, with consumer prices posting their first monthly decline since 2020. The softer data reduced near-term Fed hike expectations, following Tuesday's gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq driven by tech, energy, and strong bank earnings. Results from Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock are next now.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, describing the US economy as resilient, with steady consumer spending, solid business investment led by AI infrastructure, and a healthy labor market supported by low unemployment and steady wage growth.

Economic Calendar​

• EUR/USD traded near 1.1420, remaining under medium-term pressure as Middle East tensions supported the US dollar and reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates elevated for longer.
• USD/JPY consolidated around 162.15, remaining close to multi-decade highs as the wide interest rate gap between the US and Japan continued to favor the dollar.
• The British Pound traded steadily near $1.34 as Hormuz-related U.S. airstrikes on Iran pushed crude oil higher, renewing inflation fears and cementing Bank of England rate-hike expectations.
• Offshore Chinese Yuan traded near 6.77 as the yuan remained supported by China's 3.69% current account surplus, driven by strong AI hardware exports.
• Gold held near $4,050, gaining more than 1% after US inflation slowed to 3.5%, below expectations, and consumer prices recorded their first monthly decline since 2020.
• Silver climbed nearly 2% to trade just below $59 after June inflation slowed to a below-forecast 3.5%, marking the first monthly CPI drop since 2020. This eased aggressive Fed rate-hike expectations.
• Brent crude climbed above $86 for a third consecutive session after President Trump warned of further strikes on Iran unless negotiations resume.
• Bitcoin traded near $64,800, extending its recovery after softer US inflation reduced expectations for further Fed tightening.
• The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.31% to 29,648 after softer US inflation eased pressure on technology stocks. Strong demand for AI memory chips, supported by Micron and SK Hynix, also lifted sentiment.

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

U.S. Producer Inflation Cools in June​

U.S. producer inflation came in weaker than expected in June, showing softer price pressure at the wholesale level. PPI rose 5.5% year-over-year, below the 6.2% forecast.

Monthly producer prices fell 0.3%, the sharpest drop since April 2025. Energy prices were a major drag, while goods prices also weakened.
Core PPI also slowed more than expected, easing to 4.7% year-over-year versus the 5.2% forecast. Lower revisions to May added to the view that producer inflation is losing momentum.

This softer data may ease some pressure on the Fed. It can also weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields, while supporting gold and other rate-sensitive assets

 

[Z Forex]

Metals Find Support After Losses (07.16.2026)​

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh rejected criticism over his ties to President Trump and defended the Fed's new internal task forces, describing himself as "an independent guy for an independent job." He maintained a firm focus on inflation while addressing questions on forward guidance, asset sales, and the Fed's AI initiatives.

The Fed's Beige Book showed economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace in 11 of 12 districts. Consumer spending remained restrained by higher fuel costs, employment increased modestly, and businesses continued to report moderate to strong price pressures, partly linked to Middle East tensions and tariffs.

CENTCOM confirmed a second wave of US airstrikes on Iran after an earlier round the same day, saying the operations target military capabilities threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under President Trump's orders.

Russia's Maria Zakharova urged the US and Iran to return to talks brokered by Islamabad, warning that a wider regional conflict could have serious global consequences. She also criticized NATO's support for Ukraine and reiterated Russia's opposition to Western military involvement.

Economic Calendar
​

• EUR/USD traded around 1.1415-1.1440, remaining under pressure despite softer US inflation, which briefly reduced expectations for another Fed rate hike.
• USD/JPY held near 162.00-162.20, remaining close to four-decade highs as the wide interest rate gap between the US and Japan continued to favor the dollar.
• The pound climbed to a multi-month high of $1.3540 on anticipation that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham will favor fiscal conservative Shabana Mahmood as chancellor over the expansionary Ed Miliband.
• USD/CNH traded between 6.7650 and 6.7780, extending its broader downtrend after softer US inflation weakened the dollar.
• Gold traded in a $4,035-$4,065 range after softer US inflation helped stabilize prices.
• Silver stabilized within a $57.50 to $58.80 range, down 52% from January's historic peak of $121.64 as softer U.S. inflation metrics cushioned further liquidation.
• Bitcoin traded around $64,500-$65,100, recovering nearly 4% this week after falling to a 21-month low of $58,076 in June.
• Brent crude traded around $84.70-$85.70, up nearly 8% this month after rebounding from the low $70s.
• The Nasdaq 100 traded between 29,400 and 29,600 after a volatile stretch, with 20 of the past 26 sessions recording moves of more than 1%.

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[Z Forex]

US Stocks Fall as AI Spending Concerns Grow​

US stocks closed lower as semiconductor shares fell, with the chip index down 2.5% and the Nasdaq 100 losing nearly 1%.

Despite strong guidance from TSMC, its higher capital spending plans fueled concerns over AI overinvestment, with the four largest US AI companies expected to spend more than $725 billion this year.

Meanwhile, Brent crude rose above $85 per barrel, increasing inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of higher Fed rates.

Strong US retail sales and labor data continued to point to a resilient economy.