Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

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Gold Gets Support From Geopolitical Risk​

Gold is trading in a mixed setup. US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks keep safe-haven demand alive, but higher-for-longer Fed expectations and a stronger dollar are still limiting the upside.

Short-term pressure remains possible if Treasury yields keep rising. Markets are also pricing a higher chance of another Fed hike, which can weigh on gold because it offers no yield. A deeper pullback could bring the $4,000 area back into focus.

Still, the bigger picture remains supportive. Central banks continue to build gold reserves as geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and global fragmentation increase demand for non-dollar reserve assets.

Technically, XAUUSD is still below the 50-day SMA, so the trend has not fully turned bullish yet. RSI near 49.8 is neutral, while the rising MACD shows selling pressure is fading.

For now, resistance is around 4,056, 4,068, and 4,075. Support stands at 4,036, 4,029, and 4,017. A break above resistance could support recovery, while failure near these levels may keep gold choppy.

 

[Z Forex]

Markets Stay Defensive Amid Tensions (07.09.2026)​

U.S. Central Command executed additional targeted airstrikes against Iranian assets to preserve freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The military action followed repeated Iranian assaults on commercial vessels transiting international waters. As the conflict entered its second day, Tehran vowed to retaliate against regional American military installations, intensifying broader geopolitical friction.

These escalating hostilities severely disrupted financial markets, pushing energy prices higher and renewing structural inflation anxieties. Reflecting these macroeconomic concerns, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilized near a seven-week high of 4.58%. Strong safe-haven demand lifted the dollar index toward 101, positions underpinned by shifting monetary policy expectations. While recent Federal Reserve minutes revealed minimal immediate appetite for tightening, market participants are increasingly pricing in a rate hike before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Wall Street equity futures stabilized on Thursday as investors adjusted to the shifting macroeconomic landscape. This followed a mixed cash session where the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.09% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.28%, while energy and technology shares helped the Nasdaq Composite post a marginal 0.2% gain. Market participants are now focused on upcoming initial jobless claims, housing data, and corporate earnings reports.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro consolidated near $1.14, languishing close to a one-year low as rising energy costs stoked inflation worries and fueled ECB tightening expectations, darkening the regional growth outlook.
• The yen hovered near 162.50 per dollar on Thursday, remaining close to forty-year lows as the expanding U.S. conflict with Iran drove crude prices higher, squeezing Japan's energy-dependent economy.
• The pound retreated to $1.335 from a multi-week peak as climbing oil prices stoked inflation fears, clouding the UK economic outlook. Brent hit recent highs following renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, with Donald Trump declaring the truce over at the NATO summit.
• The offshore yuan appreciated to approximately 6.79 per dollar, snapping a three-day losing streak as accelerating producer price inflation softened domestic deflation anxieties.
• Gold fell for a second session below $4,100 an ounce Thursday as intensifying Middle East conflict stoked inflation and supply concerns.
• Silver remained capped below $59 an ounce on Thursday, declining for a second session as expanding Middle East hostilities triggered industrial supply chain and inflation worries.
• Bitcoin dropped 1.5% to 2.5%, trading around $61,800 to $62,300 as escalating Middle East tensions prompted a risk-off rotation that unwound leveraged long positions.
• Brent crude surged toward $79 a barrel, capping a nearly 10% weekly gain as sustained U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian threats to Strait of Hormuz navigation.
• The Nasdaq 100 faced selling pressure near $29,170, testing its 200-period moving average amid a semiconductor retreat and changing Federal Reserve rate expectations.

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Warsh Unveils Fed Task Forces​

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh announced the members of five new task forces focused on communications, balance sheet policy, data, employment, and inflation. The groups include leading economists, former central bankers, and business figures such as Mervyn King, Raghuram Rajan, Raj Chetty, Marc Andreessen, Greg Mankiw, and Thomas Sargent. Their goal is to conduct a broad review of the Fed's policy framework and provide recommendations for future decision-making.

Financial markets responded to a mix of monetary policy developments and easing geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar Index slipped toward 100.5, marking its third consecutive daily decline as ongoing US-Iran peace talks reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Lower oil prices also eased inflation concerns, although markets continue to expect at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year. New York Fed President John Williams noted that AI-driven demand remains an important source of inflationary pressure.

The US 10-year Treasury yield also edged lower to around 4.54%, extending its decline for a second session as falling energy prices improved the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, US stock futures were little changed following Thursday's rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remained on track for weekly gains, supported by strength in semiconductor shares. AI-related stocks continued to see mixed trading as valuation concerns persisted, though SK Hynix's heavily oversubscribed US share offering helped achieve confidence across the sector. Micron, Sandisk, and AMD were among the session's strongest performers, aided by easing oil prices and improving geopolitical sentiment.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro stabilized near $1.145, holding gains from June’s one-year low as investors weighed a potential September ECB rate hike against cooling Eurozone inflation.
• The Japanese yen advanced past 161.5 per dollar on Friday, erasing earlier weekly losses as market participants remained alert for official intervention following recent 40-year lows.
• The pound advanced past $1.34, hitting its highest level since mid-June, as investors increased Bank of England rate-hike expectations amid intensifying U.S.–Iran frictions.
• The offshore Chinese yuan appreciated to approximately 6.78 per dollar on Friday, reaching its strongest level in nearly three weeks
• Gold held steady above $4,120 an ounce on Friday, concluding a turbulent week flat as investors assessed Middle East geopolitics
• Silver stabilized near $60 an ounce on Friday, though it remained on track for a weekly loss as market participants monitored Middle East developments.
• Bitcoin climbed 2.18% over 24 hours to trade near $63,844, stabilizing after its late-June recovery from $57,750.
• Brent crude stabilized near $76 a barrel on Friday, down 2% on the session following reports that U.S.–Iran peace talks will persist despite recent shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.62% to trade near 29,727.10, recovering from a semiconductor-driven pullback that tested support at 29,200.

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Outlook on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Markets Await Inflation Amid Conflicts (07.13.2026)​

CENTCOM conducted fresh military strikes against Iranian positions to diminish Tehran's capacity to threaten commercial shipping throughout the Strait of Hormuz. Ordered by Donald Trump, this operation followed a previous massive intervention that destroyed approximately 140 Iranian military assets via aircraft, drones, and naval munitions.

In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy declared the crucial shipping lane closed until further notice, halting one non-compliant vessel with warning shots and warning neighboring states against assisting Western forces.

While the United States insists the channel remains open, this severe geopolitical escalation is creating significant waves across financial markets. Historically, the S&P 500 experiences initial volatility during the onset of such tightening cycles before recovering over a longer horizon.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that subsequent inflationary pressures could drag equity indexes lower by forcing the Federal Reserve to implement restrictive interest rate hikes, despite otherwise resilient corporate earnings reports. Although the investment bank anticipates steady rates in the near term, market participants are rapidly pricing in 50 basis points of monetary tightening by mid-2027.

Economic Calendar​

• The euro remains weak against the dollar, hovering near the critical 1.1400 threshold as geopolitical conflict fuels safe-haven demand for the dollar.
• The USD/JPY pair consolidated within a narrow range ahead of key U.S. inflation metrics, retreating from recent multi-decade peaks while preserving its overarching bullish trajectory.
• The GBP/USD pair traded under pressure near 1.3400 as intensifying Middle East conflict drove safe-haven dollar demand, neutralizing previous sterling gains from soft U.S. employment figures.
• The USD/CNY pair extended its steady downward correction, approaching critical support thresholds. The PBOC actively adjusted its midpoint fixing to counter market volatility amid trimmed Chinese growth projections from Beijing and the World Bank.
• Gold dropped beneath $4,100 an ounce on Monday, remaining under pressure as ongoing U.S.-Iran missile strikes drove crude prices upward, intensifying expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes to contain inflation.
• Silver fell below $59 an ounce on Monday, extending recent losses as escalating U.S.–Iran missile exchanges drove oil prices higher, intensifying expectations of Federal Reserve monetary tightening.
• Brent crude jumped over 3% past $78 a barrel on Monday, reversing a two-day decline as escalating U.S.–Iran missile friction threatened shipping lines.
• The Nasdaq 100 stabilized near record peaks following a two-day recovery, maintaining a 16% year-to-date advance.
• Bitcoin established short-term upward momentum, recovering from recent lows to reclaim its 100-day moving average.

Check more on zForex.com - Technical Analysis on Charts​

 

[Z Forex]

Dollar Index Holds Firm Above 101​

The dollar gained support from renewed geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices, which revived expectations that the Fed may need to stay restrictive against inflation risks.

Technically, the Dollar Index remains strong above the 101.00 level. If DXY breaks and holds above 101.80, buying momentum may accelerate again, with the next upside zone coming into focus.