Daily Global Analysis By zForex

[Z Forex]

Risk-On Mood Lifts Currencies and Metals (04.15.2026)​

While the United States continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is reportedly considering a temporary suspension of shipments to support renewed negotiations.

This shift in tone helped ease defensive demand for the US dollar, leaving the dollar index hovering near 98 on Wednesday, close to six-week lows and nearly wiping out the gains recorded since the conflict began.

The US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.25% after two consecutive sessions of decline. Hopes for renewed diplomatic progress helped moderate inflation pressure, allowing yields to settle near recent lows.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield stabilized around 2.41% after easing in the previous session, as uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s policy path remained in focus. Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the need to closely assess the economic consequences of the conflict, noting that higher oil prices could place additional strain on Japan’s growth outlook.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1800​

EUR/USD held firm near 1.1800 as hopes for renewed US–Iran negotiations weakened the dollar. Support for the pair stems from improved market sentiment and cooling US inflation, with talks expected to resume shortly. Further gains likely hinge on diplomatic breakthroughs, as ongoing energy and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz maintain the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted the bank is prepared for conflict-related risks but cautioned that it is too early to dismiss the war's full economic impact.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1800, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1770.

Gold Climbs Above $4,800​

Gold remained above $4,800 on Wednesday following a 2% gain, as hopes for a US–Iran peace agreement eased fears of an energy-led inflation spike. Reports indicate both nations are preparing for a second round of negotiations after previous attempts stalled.

Although the US maintains its naval blockade of Iranian oil in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is reportedly considering a temporary suspension of shipments to foster a better environment for the upcoming talks. This potential diplomatic shift continues to anchor the metal's recent strength.

First resistance is seen at $4870, with initial support near $4800.

USD/JPY Stabilizes Below 159.00​

USD/JPY remained below 159.00 as opposing market forces limited movement. While optimism regarding US–Iran diplomacy pressured the dollar, the yen failed to capitalize on this weakness. Persistent tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten energy supplies, creating economic anxiety for Japan due to its heavy reliance on oil imports.

This ongoing resource vulnerability effectively offsets safe-haven demand, keeping the yen under pressure.

Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Pound Climbs Toward $1.36 on Peace Hopes​

The British pound strengthened toward $1.36, hitting its highest point since mid February. This rise follows improved risk appetite fueled by hopes for US–Iran peace talks in Islamabad, even as the US blockade of Iranian ports continues. Falling oil prices below $100 per barrel further supported the currency.

However, persistent inflation risks and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz have shifted market expectations. Traders now anticipate a more aggressive Bank of England, pricing in nearly two interest rate hikes by the end of the year.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3600, with resistance around 1.3510.

Silver Surges Past $79​

Silver maintained its position above $79 on Wednesday after a powerful 5% rally, driven by the prospect of a US–Iran settlement. This diplomatic shift has mitigated fears of a massive inflation spike linked to energy costs.

While the US naval blockade persists, Tehran’s potential move to pause oil shipments is seen as a gesture to facilitate upcoming talks in Islamabad. Further aiding the metal’s ascent are retreating oil prices, which have slipped under $100, and a weakening dollar that recently touched a six-week low.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.00 while support is located around $77.70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude traded near $95 per barrel, holding onto recent losses as attention turned to the possibility of renewed negotiations before the current two-week ceasefire expires. Donald Trump indicated that discussions could restart within days in Pakistan following earlier failed talks.

The United States continues its blockade of Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran is reportedly considering a temporary halt in shipments to support diplomatic progress.

Brent’s resistance is seen at 97.50 with initial support near 94.30.

NASDAQ 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded near 25,872, gaining 458 points or 1.81%. Over the past four weeks, the index has advanced approximately 4.93%, while yearly performance remains strong at 41.71%.

Projections suggest the index could move toward 24,431 by the end of the current quarter and decline further to around 22,484 within the next year.

Nasdaq’s resistance is seen at 26.200, with initial support near 25.250.

 

[Z Forex]

Optimism Supports Markets (04.16.2026)​

Market behavior pointed to a gradual return of confidence rather than a full risk rally. Participants are responding to improving signals, but sentiment remains closely tied to the next developments in diplomacy and energy supply conditions.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Holds Near Pre-War Highs​

EUR/USD remained steady near pre-war peaks as optimism over a potential US–Iran deal supported the currency. Despite fresh US troop deployments and Christine Lagarde’s warnings regarding high energy costs, the ECB maintained a cautious stance on interest rates, keeping the euro supported amid shifting geopolitical headlines.

For EUR/USD, the initial resistance is seen at 1.1840, while the closest support is positioned at 1.1800.

Gold Still Above $4,800​

Gold continues to be above the $4,800 level, finding support as hopes for prolonged ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran improved market sentiment. This recovery occurred despite persistent friction in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed under continued tensions.

First resistance is seen at $4870, with initial support near $4800.

Yen Recovers to 158.8​

The yen strengthened toward 158.8 against the dollar, reversing earlier losses. This rebound followed signals from Japanese officials regarding active discussions with US authorities and a firm commitment to intervene in the currency markets if volatility necessitates decisive action.

Initial resistance stands at 160.20, while the first support is located at 158.10.

Pound Stabilizes Near $1.36​

Sterling traded near $1.36, holding near multi-month highs as improving sentiment around potential ceasefire extensions supported the currency. While this optimism provided a steady floor for the currency, gains were tempered by a wary market reaction to news of further US military deployments in the region.

From a technical view, support stands near 1.3600, with resistance around 1.3510.

Silver Tops $80 Amid Peace Hopes​

On Thursday, silver climbed past $80, nearing monthly peaks as traders weighed the potential for a lasting US–Iran peace agreement. While such a deal could mitigate inflationary pressures, the metal's price still remains notably below the levels seen prior to the conflict’s onset.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $82.00 while support is located around $77.70.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude stabilized above $94 per barrel after sharp volatility earlier in the week.

Sentiment improved on expectations of a possible ceasefire extension and broader cooperation between the United States and Iran, although uncertainty around shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to cap confidence.

The resistance is seen at 97.50 with initial support near 94.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 climbed to 26,293, marking a strong daily advance and extending its upward trajectory. Performance remains solid on both a monthly and yearly basis, even as forward projections signal the possibility of softer conditions in the periods ahead.

The resistance is seen at 26.900, with initial support near 26.100.

 

[Z Forex]

US Debt Interest Hits Record High​

The interest burden on US federal debt has reached an unprecedented peak. During the first half of fiscal year 2025, servicing costs hit a record $623 billion, reflecting a 7% annual increase. This total surpasses the interest paid during the height of the 2021 pandemic response.

Over the past year, total interest expenses reached $1.3 trillion, making them the government’s second-largest expenditure, trailing only Social Security.

Remarkably, debt interest now costs $300 billion more than health programs and $400 billion more than national defense, signaling that a fiscal crisis is firmly established.

 

[Z Forex]

Not a Surprise: A Repricing Move​

The recent rally in US equities may look sudden, but the groundwork was already there. Positioning, sentiment, and policy expectations had been building in the background.

One of the main triggers was the shift in US–Iran expectations. Markets were pricing a more disruptive scenario. When tensions showed signs of stabilizing instead, portfolios had to adjust quickly, pushing equities higher.

Positioning played a big role. Many investors were hedged for downside risk. As prices moved up, shorts were closed and hedges were reduced, adding fuel to the rally.

This is a familiar pattern. Markets don’t always move on new information. They move when expectations change and positioning gets forced to realign.