Daily Dax

[rols]

I was wondering if anybody had an opinion about the difficulty level of trading DAX or how you view this instrument as opposed to other indices. Probably more volatile, but is there anybody who has traded another instrument an turned to DAX or vice versa and has anything to comment on that? I'm interested in hearing what they have to say.

It depends how you define difficult? Are we talking volatility?
Perhaps you could enlighten me...

The DAX has been kind to my system lately and has some nice intraday trends if you are patient. Today was OK!

 

[firewalker99]

It depends how you define difficult? Are we talking volatility?
Perhaps you could enlighten me...

The DAX has been kind to my system lately and has some nice intraday trends if you are patient. Today was OK!

Today was very good indeed. With difficult I mean establish a pattern of price movement of some kind... Check out the charts attached... I just get it all mixed up over and over again with these kind of moves.

Stick with the trending days and ignore the ranging days? The problem you never know what kind of day it's gonna be

 

[rols]

Today was very good indeed. With difficult I mean establish a pattern of price movement of some kind... Check out the charts attached... I just get it all mixed up over and over again with these kind of moves.

Stick with the trending days and ignore the ranging days? The problem you never know what kind of day it's gonna be

Can you give me the dates of these charts and I'll look in more detail....

The trick is to devise a system that minimises losses on range bound days and cashes in on a trending day....

Then have another system that likes range bound days etc.

With a little more experience you will be able to see a trending day or a range day coming by real time observation. i don't think the market's going to tell us in advance by way of a few cursory glances at ATR, volume or probability calculations - that would be too easy wouldn't it?!

There are sooo many factors which after time and experience your brain will recognise, and more importantly they will be unique to the way your brain perceives the info.

Be patient and have faith.....

 

[firewalker99]

Can you give me the dates of these charts and I'll look in more detail....

If you move your mouse over the charts and hold still the filename will show the date. For instance: dax20060323.jpg is March 23rd. Anyway: first chart is 23/3, 31/3, 28/4, 19/5, I just picked some random...

With a little more experience you will be able to see a trending day or a range day coming by real time observation. i don't think the market's going to tell us in advance by way of a few cursory glances at ATR, volume or probability calculations - that would be too easy wouldn't it?!

There are sooo many factors which after time and experience your brain will recognise, and more importantly they will be unique to the way your brain perceives the info.

Indeed, I don't think the market will tell me by those signals, but don't know with what signals it will... Sometimes the day seems to range all around, but as the US markets open, it's trends along nicely... Do you trade DAX as in two time periods? Before and after American stock exchanges open?

 

[rols]

If you move your mouse over the charts and hold still the filename will show the date. For instance: dax20060323.jpg is March 23rd. Anyway: first chart is 23/3, 31/3, 28/4, 19/5, I just picked some random...



Indeed, I don't think the market will tell me by those signals, but don't know with what signals it will... Sometimes the day seems to range all around, but as the US markets open, it's trends along nicely... Do you trade DAX as in two time periods? Before and after American stock exchanges open?

A quick look through the charts you posted and looking at my trend system for these days - they would have all been losers. I can't say whether i would have taken the trades because this current system has only been live for three months and I don't want to get into smarty retrospective analysis. However backtesting gives me the confidence that even if I had taken the trades on these range bound and chop days I would still be up because of risk management - another subject altogether.

However just using a simple trend indicator of three SMAs on a five minute chart of 10, 18, and 40 there were only a few occasions where they lined up. I had a signal at 14.20 on 20060331 chart and may have taken it and exited at at 16.15 at R1 pivot point. Otherwise perhaps would have stayed out.

I also look at oscillators, the EUR/USD FX and the $index as well as having a homemade DAXometer which is a bit like the TIKKI and observe price action in relation to volume and divergences in real time. As well as standard Pivots I also draw in other price lines and channels which have more of a longer term significance.

Regarding the US opening then yes it is another time period. Yesterday was a good example of how the DOW can lead the DAX. If you can, watch them together.

Also be aware of certain times of day where key reversals often take place.

IMO a proportion of discretionary trading is actually making ultra complex mechanical decisions in a blink and giving the illusion of being intuitive.

Attached a couple of docs, with thanks to SpeedScalper which may be helpful.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=19478&highlight=ACV

 

[firewalker99]

A quick look through the charts you posted and looking at my trend system for these days - they would have all been losers. I can't say whether i would have taken the trades because this current system has only been live for three months and I don't want to get into smarty retrospective analysis. However backtesting gives me the confidence that even if I had taken the trades on these range bound and chop days I would still be up because of risk management - another subject altogether.

Also be aware of certain times of day where key reversals often take place.

Hi rols, thanks for the docs, are interesting to think about, although I'm a bit sceptic about those time frames that indicate a possible key reversal. They are quite narrow, about 10 minutes? Also, have you any reason to believe that the corresponding time frames for the DAX also hold a higher probability for a reversal?

These choppy days are actually quite a hassle for me and apparently not at all profitable for you too. Problem is you never now how the day's going to turn out. It can be trendlessness in the morning and making very nice moves in the afternoon...

 

[rols]

Hi rols, thanks for the docs, are interesting to think about, although I'm a bit sceptic about those time frames that indicate a possible key reversal. They are quite narrow, about 10 minutes? Also, have you any reason to believe that the corresponding time frames for the DAX also hold a higher probability for a reversal?

These choppy days are actually quite a hassle for me and apparently not at all profitable for you too. Problem is you never now how the day's going to turn out. It can be trendlessness in the morning and making very nice moves in the afternoon...

You have to have faith. In your system and in yourself. That is all!

 

[firewalker99]

You have to have faith. In your system and in yourself. That is all!

So you've managed to take that whole upmove right from the beginning to the end... quite nice I might say! My system on the other hand didn't produce any signals :| (cfr journal).

 

[rols]

So you've managed to take that whole upmove right from the beginning to the end... quite nice I might say! My system on the other hand didn't produce any signals :| (cfr journal).

This system is working well at the moment and I am also running two other systems on the SMI and YM though they need constant attention.

I decided the key elements for my personal tastes were systems that when back and forward tested displayed (i)low draw downs (ii) captured the bigger moves intraday(iii)exited losing position quickly and frequently....

 

[alan5616]

The Dax is a much better market to trade than the FTSE. Good momentum and volatility.

Given the choice of trading the FTSE futures or, watching paint dry, i would choose the latter option

 

[foale]

well as far as Europe is concerned today the action has been more in the Euro / USD than the Dax (unless you took out the afternoon dip of course )

 

[cd173]

Hi All

Great thread at last for the DAX.!!
I've been trading it on and off for the last couple of years and would be interested in swapping strategies and theory on system trading!

Not sure if this is what this thread was created for and apologies if it's out of context.

Cheers
Chris

 

[firewalker99]

The Dax is a much better market to trade than the FTSE. Good momentum and volatility.

Given the choice of trading the FTSE futures or, watching paint dry, i would choose the latter option

don't know about today though?
the range is as even small as 25 points

 

[foale]

Today..and infact for a good few days this month...
the FTSE was a better trade than the range bound Dax.. buy at open sell late afternoon.

I am sure its just the August effect.... Generally the Dax is a better mover...imo

 

[foale]

Dax does not seem to have an appetite to test 5900....
I suppose that its assuming 10400 a step too far for the Dow...

Any thoughts anyone

 

[daxdaytrader]

seems to be due a down move

 

[foale]

Stern rebuff of 5900 for Dax as US carries on past11400

FTSE too well off ealier highs

Still Sept does not really start until next Tuesday does it !!

 

[daxdaytrader]

A nice basis for a head and shoulders has formed today.

 

[daxdaytrader]

Hi,

My prior observation was false, the H&S never formed, and indeed it just looked like a probe higher anyway.

The bears came early this morning, so I didn't get in off the open range, and sold 5910 instead. Unfortunately I was stopped out break even by a retest.

Best price was to enter short at around 5916, which was traded strongly before.

 

[daxdaytrader]

Yesterday was a hangman day, the candlestick body also engulfed the prior days doji. No surprise that the open sold again today.