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Daily analytics from the experts of Fibo Group
Daily Analytics from Fibo Group
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Counterattack of central banks
Central banks around the world include anti-virus boost.
The European Central Bank has launched a program of redemption of bonds worth 750 billion euros, which will last at least until the end of the year.
The Central Bank of Australia lowered the rate to 0.25%, Brazil - to a record low 3.75%, and the Swiss regulator, although it kept the rate, announced an increase in foreign exchange interventions against the strengthening of the franc.
#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #financial #trade #crisis #australia #brazil #europe #centralbank #switzerland
Central banks around the world include anti-virus boost.
The European Central Bank has launched a program of redemption of bonds worth 750 billion euros, which will last at least until the end of the year.
The Central Bank of Australia lowered the rate to 0.25%, Brazil - to a record low 3.75%, and the Swiss regulator, although it kept the rate, announced an increase in foreign exchange interventions against the strengthening of the franc.
#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #financial #trade #crisis #australia #brazil #europe #centralbank #switzerland
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Crisis: US Labor Market Collapse
According to the Ministry of Labor on Thursday, 281,000 people applied for benefits for the first time - 70,000 more than the week before last. The new figure is the highest for two and a half years.
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At first glance, it’s not a very important indicator for trading on currency pairs. However, in the current situation, this may become the next black swan. About half of those working in the United States are private businesses, whose rents account for the largest portion of business expenses. And it’s easier to close a business and then reopen without debt (this is better than paying rent in the absence of sales and movement restrictions).
=======
In the current situation, the best way out is to wait until next Thursday, there are well-founded reasons that the number of unemployed American businessmen will increase.
And these are very serious risks and maybe we will see another bottom on #EURUSD and world stock indices.
=====
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According to the Ministry of Labor on Thursday, 281,000 people applied for benefits for the first time - 70,000 more than the week before last. The new figure is the highest for two and a half years.
=======
At first glance, it’s not a very important indicator for trading on currency pairs. However, in the current situation, this may become the next black swan. About half of those working in the United States are private businesses, whose rents account for the largest portion of business expenses. And it’s easier to close a business and then reopen without debt (this is better than paying rent in the absence of sales and movement restrictions).
=======
In the current situation, the best way out is to wait until next Thursday, there are well-founded reasons that the number of unemployed American businessmen will increase.
And these are very serious risks and maybe we will see another bottom on #EURUSD and world stock indices.
=====
Trade with the Fibo Group!
#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #financial #trade #crisis #us #labormarket
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🔥Market Watch🔥
💥Europe is preparing for a total quarantine 💥
On Thursday, March 19, it became quite complicated for Europe and, in particular, European currencies. Let me remind you that Italy still faces a continuous quarantine zone which restricts the movement of the population. France also followed in the footsteps of Italy and in a number of other European countries the situation remains quite complex. Given the rapid spread of the virus in Europe, the situation is bound to remain volatile in the coming days.
As a result, we observed a sharp fall in the EUR / USD currency pair which brought it to the lowest levels since 2017. At the same time, there remains a lot of buying interest around the 1.0785 level which for now should keep the Euro from suffering further losses.
The situation is similar with the GBP / USD currency pair which hit historical lows. Today we are already seeing some type of rebound with the target at 1.2000 and even to 1.2125. This scenario will be a major target but we may see a return to the support level of 1.1785. However, active market purchases are no longer feasible, since now there is no way to place a short “stop” to get a risk to profit ratio of 1 to 3 or more.
The rapid deterioration of the economic situation in Europe and the talk by several countries on the possible extension of quarantine, as well as moves by the Fed who are attempting to save the US stock market, contributed to the strengthening of the USD. I’ll draw attention to the US dollar index, which has reached its highest level since 2016, which, in turn, increases the risk of a strong correction in the short term.
Now let's move on to the oil market and in particular, American grade WTI. After collapsing to $ 20.5 per barrel, buying interest has picked up. But it’s hard to imagine a significant increase in prices until the position of Russia and Saudi Arabia on the issue of production, as well as stabilization of the situation associated with the coronavirus, changes.
And traditionally for the Friday review, we will consider two transactions for traders on the purchase of the GBP / USD currency pair in full lot. The first deal to buy was opened on Thursday, March 19, at a price of 1.1480. The Take Profit order was set at 1.1650. As you know, the pair reached the level of 1.1792 that day, but then collapsed under the support level of 1.1465. Since buyers immediately managed to return above the noted support level, it was decided to open another buy deal from the level of 1.1480, setting a Take Profit at 1.1780 - the previous maximum. The total Profit on two transactions amounted to $ 4700.
=====
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💥Europe is preparing for a total quarantine 💥
On Thursday, March 19, it became quite complicated for Europe and, in particular, European currencies. Let me remind you that Italy still faces a continuous quarantine zone which restricts the movement of the population. France also followed in the footsteps of Italy and in a number of other European countries the situation remains quite complex. Given the rapid spread of the virus in Europe, the situation is bound to remain volatile in the coming days.
As a result, we observed a sharp fall in the EUR / USD currency pair which brought it to the lowest levels since 2017. At the same time, there remains a lot of buying interest around the 1.0785 level which for now should keep the Euro from suffering further losses.
The situation is similar with the GBP / USD currency pair which hit historical lows. Today we are already seeing some type of rebound with the target at 1.2000 and even to 1.2125. This scenario will be a major target but we may see a return to the support level of 1.1785. However, active market purchases are no longer feasible, since now there is no way to place a short “stop” to get a risk to profit ratio of 1 to 3 or more.
The rapid deterioration of the economic situation in Europe and the talk by several countries on the possible extension of quarantine, as well as moves by the Fed who are attempting to save the US stock market, contributed to the strengthening of the USD. I’ll draw attention to the US dollar index, which has reached its highest level since 2016, which, in turn, increases the risk of a strong correction in the short term.
Now let's move on to the oil market and in particular, American grade WTI. After collapsing to $ 20.5 per barrel, buying interest has picked up. But it’s hard to imagine a significant increase in prices until the position of Russia and Saudi Arabia on the issue of production, as well as stabilization of the situation associated with the coronavirus, changes.
And traditionally for the Friday review, we will consider two transactions for traders on the purchase of the GBP / USD currency pair in full lot. The first deal to buy was opened on Thursday, March 19, at a price of 1.1480. The Take Profit order was set at 1.1650. As you know, the pair reached the level of 1.1792 that day, but then collapsed under the support level of 1.1465. Since buyers immediately managed to return above the noted support level, it was decided to open another buy deal from the level of 1.1480, setting a Take Profit at 1.1780 - the previous maximum. The total Profit on two transactions amounted to $ 4700.
=====
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #oil #GBPUSD #crisis #MarketWatch
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US will buy a billion barrels of oil
The US Treasury Department recommends that President Donald Trump allocate $ 10-20 billion for the purchase of oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
At current prices of the American WTI grade ($ 22 per barrel for delivery in April), this means a purchase of 454-909 million barrels. The acquisition of oil will be aimed at keeping the reserve filled to capacity for a decade.
How exactly this will be done is unclear, most likely, things will not go beyond verbal rhetoric, because strategic oil reserve a week ago contained 635 million barrels with a total capacity of 727 million barrels.
=====
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The US Treasury Department recommends that President Donald Trump allocate $ 10-20 billion for the purchase of oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
At current prices of the American WTI grade ($ 22 per barrel for delivery in April), this means a purchase of 454-909 million barrels. The acquisition of oil will be aimed at keeping the reserve filled to capacity for a decade.
How exactly this will be done is unclear, most likely, things will not go beyond verbal rhetoric, because strategic oil reserve a week ago contained 635 million barrels with a total capacity of 727 million barrels.
=====
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⠀
#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #financial #trader #crisis #us #oil #usa #trump
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📢 Forex analytics 📢
🔥Market Watch🔥
💥Italy shows more rounds of disappointing data💥
US and European stock markets are in a bearish trend and there are no real reasons the situation will change. In fact, the volatility of the stock indices reflects the real mood and expectations of large investors - a panic mood. The reason for the panic is total quarantine in most European countries, as well as other countries in the world.
It is worth noting that by the end of last week, the amount of sellers, both on the stock market and foreign exchange market, had noticeably declined. For example, buyers of the EUR / USD and GBP / US currency pairs managed to compensate for some of the lost positions. But today we are seeing a moderate weakening of EUR and GBP.
So, the quotes of the EUR / USD currency pair returned to the psychological level of 1.0700, while only a break of support at 1.0650 will indicate the possibility of a further selloff to 1.0570 and 1.0500. The situation with the GBP / USD currency pair is similar - after an unsuccessful attempt by buyers to push the pound higher, the pair returned to the support level of 1.1655. As a result, the risk of a breakdown of support at 1.1540 and a further decline to 1.1425–1.1465 is quite possible.
Let me remind you that the ECB continues to use not only verbal interventions, but also various tools to stabilize the economy. At the same time, regular statements by representatives of the ECB about the readiness to participate more actively if necessary, play an important role, thereby providing support to the stock market while at the same time putting pressure on the EUR.
Turning to the oil market, which continues to decline, I note the increasing risk of a collapse in the price of WTI in the region of $ 16– $ 18 per barrel. At the same time, I do not expect prices to remain at this level for the long-. Therefore, I consider the decline in oil prices as a more favorable point for opening long positions. Of course, we are talking about medium-term trading in the context of several weeks, possibly even months.
To sum up, I will turn to the US and their attempts to restrain panic in the financial markets, as well as among the population. We are talking about a package of incentive measures for some sectors of the economy, for example, industrial, as well as airlines, small businesses and households. They plan to allocate at least $ 1 trillion for this, which should help markets avoid further losses in the long run.
=====
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #oil #GBPUSD #crisis #MarketWatch #Europe #USA #Italy
🔥Market Watch🔥
💥Italy shows more rounds of disappointing data💥
US and European stock markets are in a bearish trend and there are no real reasons the situation will change. In fact, the volatility of the stock indices reflects the real mood and expectations of large investors - a panic mood. The reason for the panic is total quarantine in most European countries, as well as other countries in the world.
It is worth noting that by the end of last week, the amount of sellers, both on the stock market and foreign exchange market, had noticeably declined. For example, buyers of the EUR / USD and GBP / US currency pairs managed to compensate for some of the lost positions. But today we are seeing a moderate weakening of EUR and GBP.
So, the quotes of the EUR / USD currency pair returned to the psychological level of 1.0700, while only a break of support at 1.0650 will indicate the possibility of a further selloff to 1.0570 and 1.0500. The situation with the GBP / USD currency pair is similar - after an unsuccessful attempt by buyers to push the pound higher, the pair returned to the support level of 1.1655. As a result, the risk of a breakdown of support at 1.1540 and a further decline to 1.1425–1.1465 is quite possible.
Let me remind you that the ECB continues to use not only verbal interventions, but also various tools to stabilize the economy. At the same time, regular statements by representatives of the ECB about the readiness to participate more actively if necessary, play an important role, thereby providing support to the stock market while at the same time putting pressure on the EUR.
Turning to the oil market, which continues to decline, I note the increasing risk of a collapse in the price of WTI in the region of $ 16– $ 18 per barrel. At the same time, I do not expect prices to remain at this level for the long-. Therefore, I consider the decline in oil prices as a more favorable point for opening long positions. Of course, we are talking about medium-term trading in the context of several weeks, possibly even months.
To sum up, I will turn to the US and their attempts to restrain panic in the financial markets, as well as among the population. We are talking about a package of incentive measures for some sectors of the economy, for example, industrial, as well as airlines, small businesses and households. They plan to allocate at least $ 1 trillion for this, which should help markets avoid further losses in the long run.
=====
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #oil #GBPUSD #crisis #MarketWatch #Europe #USA #Italy
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The Federal Reserve just pledged asset purchases with no limit to support markets
The Fed announced an “endless” quantitative easing to support the economy. The markets soared up.
======
The press release includes a lot of incentives.
We're giving you a short summary. In our opinion, there are only two most important points:
1. Unlimited QE in relation to government bonds and mortgage securities agencies.
2. Repurchase of corporate bonds and various measures of credit support to companies in the amount of $300 billion.
The second point is very important, since it is corporate debts that are now in a severe stress and demonstrate a crushing collapse.
The markets are trying to stabilize on this news.
How long will it last? Share your opinion in the comments!
=====
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #crisis #fed
The Fed announced an “endless” quantitative easing to support the economy. The markets soared up.
======
The press release includes a lot of incentives.
We're giving you a short summary. In our opinion, there are only two most important points:
1. Unlimited QE in relation to government bonds and mortgage securities agencies.
2. Repurchase of corporate bonds and various measures of credit support to companies in the amount of $300 billion.
The second point is very important, since it is corporate debts that are now in a severe stress and demonstrate a crushing collapse.
The markets are trying to stabilize on this news.
How long will it last? Share your opinion in the comments!
=====
Trade with the Fibo Group!
#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #crisis #fed
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Fed Official Warns of 30% Unemployment
The US government has reconsidered the forecast for the number of unemployed in the United States. This Thursday, an increase in the number of unemployed is expected to reach one million at a rate of 220 thousand per week over the past 3-5 years ...
American businesses are closed nationwide. This could provoke a halving of GDP growth in the next three months and pull the dollar even higher.
=====
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⠀
#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #crisis #USA #dollar #unemployment
The US government has reconsidered the forecast for the number of unemployed in the United States. This Thursday, an increase in the number of unemployed is expected to reach one million at a rate of 220 thousand per week over the past 3-5 years ...
American businesses are closed nationwide. This could provoke a halving of GDP growth in the next three months and pull the dollar even higher.
=====
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⠀
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The dollar is falling due to Fed stimulus measures
- The dollar fell on Tuesday: tough financing conditions eased somewhat after the US Federal Reserve did its best to provide much-needed dollar liquidity.
- On Monday, the Fed announced unlimited quantitative easing and credit market support programs in a decisive attempt to support an economy struggling with extreme trade restrictions to fight coronavirus.
We can confidently say that we are out of the phase when all assets (stocks, bonds and gold) were sold. Now the situation resembles a controlled fall.
=====
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #crisis #USA #dollar
- The dollar fell on Tuesday: tough financing conditions eased somewhat after the US Federal Reserve did its best to provide much-needed dollar liquidity.
- On Monday, the Fed announced unlimited quantitative easing and credit market support programs in a decisive attempt to support an economy struggling with extreme trade restrictions to fight coronavirus.
We can confidently say that we are out of the phase when all assets (stocks, bonds and gold) were sold. Now the situation resembles a controlled fall.
=====
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Market Watch
The calm after the storm
The situation in the financial markets is stabilizing, but is seen as only a temporary phenomenon, since most countries still cannot control the spread of the virus. Currently, Europe and the United States are forced to keep the population at home, thereby putting added pressure on their own economies which results in an overall weakness in the global economy.
Currently, main topic is the intention of the US government to allocate about $ 2 trillion to save the economy. This stimulus package provides for business financing, as well as direct financial assistance to the population. According to data published by Reuters in the United States, about 100 million people are forced to stay at home due to quarantine, which is almost a third of the total population.
Pay attention to the US stock market, most of the shares returned to the green zone, since the allocation of interest-free loans will allow companies to significantly improve the current state of affairs, including restructuring their financial obligations, as well as redeeming their own shares at lower prices (at a market price that is currently significantly below the average for the last 12 months).
At the same time, I will draw your attention to the weakening of the US dollar, which has occurred over the last few days against most currencies. So, for example, the GBP / USD currency pair has already overcome the technical resistance area 1.1880–1.1900, thereby opening the way to the psychological and at the same time technical resistance level 1.2000.
I also draw attention to the publication of a weaker than expected report regarding business conditions, as well as the current situation and economic expectations in Germany from IFO. Despite data coming in below expectations, the demand for the EUR / USD pair remains stable which probably has more to do with USD weakness. Nevertheless, active purchases of EUR / USD should remain subdued until the signing of the bill to provide financial assistance in the United States, which is likely to exert strong, but short-term pressure on the USD.
Since most countries of the world are still in quarantine, long-term purchases of stock indices remain at risk.
=====
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The calm after the storm
The situation in the financial markets is stabilizing, but is seen as only a temporary phenomenon, since most countries still cannot control the spread of the virus. Currently, Europe and the United States are forced to keep the population at home, thereby putting added pressure on their own economies which results in an overall weakness in the global economy.
Currently, main topic is the intention of the US government to allocate about $ 2 trillion to save the economy. This stimulus package provides for business financing, as well as direct financial assistance to the population. According to data published by Reuters in the United States, about 100 million people are forced to stay at home due to quarantine, which is almost a third of the total population.
Pay attention to the US stock market, most of the shares returned to the green zone, since the allocation of interest-free loans will allow companies to significantly improve the current state of affairs, including restructuring their financial obligations, as well as redeeming their own shares at lower prices (at a market price that is currently significantly below the average for the last 12 months).
At the same time, I will draw your attention to the weakening of the US dollar, which has occurred over the last few days against most currencies. So, for example, the GBP / USD currency pair has already overcome the technical resistance area 1.1880–1.1900, thereby opening the way to the psychological and at the same time technical resistance level 1.2000.
I also draw attention to the publication of a weaker than expected report regarding business conditions, as well as the current situation and economic expectations in Germany from IFO. Despite data coming in below expectations, the demand for the EUR / USD pair remains stable which probably has more to do with USD weakness. Nevertheless, active purchases of EUR / USD should remain subdued until the signing of the bill to provide financial assistance in the United States, which is likely to exert strong, but short-term pressure on the USD.
Since most countries of the world are still in quarantine, long-term purchases of stock indices remain at risk.
=====
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WHO: United States could become coronavirus epicenter
New cases of coronavirus infection are observed in the United States.
Representatives of some US states and municipalities criticize the federal government for the lack of coordinated action that provokes local competition for medical equipment. This was reported by Reuters, noting that the existence of the problem was recognized by Donald Trump.
- “The world market for face masks and ventilators is crazy,” the President of the United States tweeted. “We're helping states get equipment, but it's not easy.”
85% of the new cases of coronavirus observed in the last day were recorded in Europe and the United States (with 40% of this number in the states).
=====
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New cases of coronavirus infection are observed in the United States.
Representatives of some US states and municipalities criticize the federal government for the lack of coordinated action that provokes local competition for medical equipment. This was reported by Reuters, noting that the existence of the problem was recognized by Donald Trump.
- “The world market for face masks and ventilators is crazy,” the President of the United States tweeted. “We're helping states get equipment, but it's not easy.”
85% of the new cases of coronavirus observed in the last day were recorded in Europe and the United States (with 40% of this number in the states).
=====
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #crisis #dollar #pandemic #coronavirus #epidemic
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Germany: recession begins
- IFO business climate index collapses from 96 to 86.1 points in March
- Assessment of the current situation failed from 99 to 93
- Business expectations collapsed from 93.1 to 79.7
These figures were slightly worse than forecasts.
=======
The IFO index is close to the minimum values of the previous crisis in 2008/2009 - then it fell to 80.0 (in March 2009). The assessment of the current situation was weaker, while expectations were already starting to improve.
The current assessment of the situation is still quite high, and this shows that the economy is most likely far from the bottom point. The recession is likely to intensify in the coming months.
=====
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- IFO business climate index collapses from 96 to 86.1 points in March
- Assessment of the current situation failed from 99 to 93
- Business expectations collapsed from 93.1 to 79.7
These figures were slightly worse than forecasts.
=======
The IFO index is close to the minimum values of the previous crisis in 2008/2009 - then it fell to 80.0 (in March 2009). The assessment of the current situation was weaker, while expectations were already starting to improve.
The current assessment of the situation is still quite high, and this shows that the economy is most likely far from the bottom point. The recession is likely to intensify in the coming months.
=====
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G20: Americans want to put pressure on Saudi Arabia at the summit
USA intends to put pressure on Saudi Arabia on the kingdom’s planned increase in oil production during the G20 summit scheduled on Thursday, which will be held via videoconference. This was reported on Wednesday by the Wall Street Journal, citing sources.
G20 leaders intend to discuss the spread of coronavirus, but USA also plans to raise the theme of the need to end the price war, which adversely affects US companies and banks. In particular, the United States wants to warn Saudi Arabia that the kingdom could also suffer if Western financial systems are destabilized.
=====
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USA intends to put pressure on Saudi Arabia on the kingdom’s planned increase in oil production during the G20 summit scheduled on Thursday, which will be held via videoconference. This was reported on Wednesday by the Wall Street Journal, citing sources.
G20 leaders intend to discuss the spread of coronavirus, but USA also plans to raise the theme of the need to end the price war, which adversely affects US companies and banks. In particular, the United States wants to warn Saudi Arabia that the kingdom could also suffer if Western financial systems are destabilized.
=====
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Even a Saudi-Russia Truce Would Be Too Late to Save OPEC+ Legacy
On Thursday, the States held an urgent teleconference between leaders of the G-10 countries to discuss how to encourage the Saudis to make peace with the Russians.
Even if President Donald Trump could resolve the conflict between the two exporters, the kingdom had already committed to flood the crude oil market next month. And Moscow in every possible way makes it clear that it will not work. The ceasefire would stop a further collapse in prices, but it is too late to save relations between the former partners, who, until this month, together supported the oil market in a state of equilibrium.
Back in 2016, when Saudi Arabia and Russia led the global alliance of oil-producing countries, known as OPEC, the main motive for cooperation was the desire to reduce the oversupply of 300 million barrels of oil in industrialized countries, which prevented price increases.
But now the kingdom is pumping oil at full strength, producing 12 million barrels a day, and demand is falling due to the coronavirus. Goldman Sachs Group Inc estimates that stocks will rise 20 million barrels per day next month.
Even assuming that storage tanks are capable of holding such a volume, everything OPEC+ has achieved in recent years of casualties and reductions will be destroyed in one month.
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On Thursday, the States held an urgent teleconference between leaders of the G-10 countries to discuss how to encourage the Saudis to make peace with the Russians.
Even if President Donald Trump could resolve the conflict between the two exporters, the kingdom had already committed to flood the crude oil market next month. And Moscow in every possible way makes it clear that it will not work. The ceasefire would stop a further collapse in prices, but it is too late to save relations between the former partners, who, until this month, together supported the oil market in a state of equilibrium.
Back in 2016, when Saudi Arabia and Russia led the global alliance of oil-producing countries, known as OPEC, the main motive for cooperation was the desire to reduce the oversupply of 300 million barrels of oil in industrialized countries, which prevented price increases.
But now the kingdom is pumping oil at full strength, producing 12 million barrels a day, and demand is falling due to the coronavirus. Goldman Sachs Group Inc estimates that stocks will rise 20 million barrels per day next month.
Even assuming that storage tanks are capable of holding such a volume, everything OPEC+ has achieved in recent years of casualties and reductions will be destroyed in one month.
=====
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Market Watch
Another 3.3 million unemployed in the USA
A crisis is a time of rapid and fairly strong changes not only in the economy, but also amongst the population as panic sets in. Last week, the main talk was the significant deterioration in the economic situation in Europe, which put pressure on European currencies. Investors also began a massive exodus from all stock markets.
At this point, the US dollar and US government bonds were in great demand, generating a 10 % spike in the US dollar index and causing it to rise to the highest level since 2016. Investor sentiment has changed so far this week causing a pullback in the US currency
The main reason for the weakening of the USD remains investors' expectations of a record package of monetary stimulus from the Fed and the US government, a bearish fundamental factor for the USD and at the same time bullish for the stock market. A big jump in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States only increases the likelihood of further stimulation of the economy.
Let me remind you that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits approached the mark of 3.3 million with an average of about 200 thousand.
I will draw your attention to the EUR / USD currency pair. Buyers managed to overcome the resistance area of 1.1040–1.1065, but by the middle of the European trading session, the pair had adjusted to the psychological mark of 1.1000. This indicates a lack of buyers and for now a pause for any further gains in the dollar
Turning to the current situation in Europe,it is clear that the pessimistic situation in Italy, Spain and France is continuing as they still cannot stop the spread of the virus which may keep the Euro under pressure
I will also point out the GBP / USD currency pair - a breakdown of support at 1.2140 can cause a fairly strong wave of sales, returning the pair to 1.2000. The risk of a bearish scenario developing remains elevated, as there are still no bullish fundamental factors for the GBP, and the recent growth in the currency can be attributed to USD weakness.
I will conclude with a review of the transaction for the sale of the USD / JPY currency pair. After the breakdown of the technical support level at 110.50 the trader opened a full lot sell order. A Take Profit order was placed at the next support level of 109.50. As you can see now, the pair has fallen much further, thereby allowing the trader to earn a little more than $ 900. At the same time, the risk was less than $ 300, since the Stop Loss order was placed 25 points above the transaction opening price.
=============
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#MarketWatch
Another 3.3 million unemployed in the USA
A crisis is a time of rapid and fairly strong changes not only in the economy, but also amongst the population as panic sets in. Last week, the main talk was the significant deterioration in the economic situation in Europe, which put pressure on European currencies. Investors also began a massive exodus from all stock markets.
At this point, the US dollar and US government bonds were in great demand, generating a 10 % spike in the US dollar index and causing it to rise to the highest level since 2016. Investor sentiment has changed so far this week causing a pullback in the US currency
The main reason for the weakening of the USD remains investors' expectations of a record package of monetary stimulus from the Fed and the US government, a bearish fundamental factor for the USD and at the same time bullish for the stock market. A big jump in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States only increases the likelihood of further stimulation of the economy.
Let me remind you that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits approached the mark of 3.3 million with an average of about 200 thousand.
I will draw your attention to the EUR / USD currency pair. Buyers managed to overcome the resistance area of 1.1040–1.1065, but by the middle of the European trading session, the pair had adjusted to the psychological mark of 1.1000. This indicates a lack of buyers and for now a pause for any further gains in the dollar
Turning to the current situation in Europe,it is clear that the pessimistic situation in Italy, Spain and France is continuing as they still cannot stop the spread of the virus which may keep the Euro under pressure
I will also point out the GBP / USD currency pair - a breakdown of support at 1.2140 can cause a fairly strong wave of sales, returning the pair to 1.2000. The risk of a bearish scenario developing remains elevated, as there are still no bullish fundamental factors for the GBP, and the recent growth in the currency can be attributed to USD weakness.
I will conclude with a review of the transaction for the sale of the USD / JPY currency pair. After the breakdown of the technical support level at 110.50 the trader opened a full lot sell order. A Take Profit order was placed at the next support level of 109.50. As you can see now, the pair has fallen much further, thereby allowing the trader to earn a little more than $ 900. At the same time, the risk was less than $ 300, since the Stop Loss order was placed 25 points above the transaction opening price.
=============
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Coronavirus: a huge debt crisis in Europe
In 2012, at the height of Italy's sovereign debt crisis, Mario Draghi saved the euro by saying that the European Central Bank (ECB) would do everything possible to save the euro. Today, when Italy is at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, the strength of the euro will again be tested by the full-blown Italian crisis.
=======
We can assume that for the sake of the Italian and world economy and despite the high financial costs, Europe will have the political will to do everything possible to save the euro. So we are waiting for the repetition of the scripts.
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In 2012, at the height of Italy's sovereign debt crisis, Mario Draghi saved the euro by saying that the European Central Bank (ECB) would do everything possible to save the euro. Today, when Italy is at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, the strength of the euro will again be tested by the full-blown Italian crisis.
=======
We can assume that for the sake of the Italian and world economy and despite the high financial costs, Europe will have the political will to do everything possible to save the euro. So we are waiting for the repetition of the scripts.
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #crisis #debt #Europe #Italy #ECB #euro #coronavirus
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🔥Market Watch🔥
💥Cheap money💥
The next financial crisis has already begun and it is still extremely difficult to assess its scale. A number of experts say that the economic consequences associated with this pandemic will be comparable with the consequences of the Second World War. At this stage, I would consider this forecast as pessimistic, although it cannot be ruled out.
Let me remind you that the vast majority of companies are forced to quarantine and, as a result, dismiss or send some employees on unpaid leave. During the first week of quarantine in the USA the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 3.3 million, while the usual number averages around 200 thousand. Of course, this news put pressure on the USD
Additional pressure on the US currency was exerted by information about the government’s readiness to allocate more than $ 2 trillion of financial assistance for business and the US population. On Friday, March 27, Donald Trump signed the corresponding act for the allocation of the $ 2.2, which caused the USD index to fall back to levels seen in the middle of the month. All these factors and some others have caused the USD to fall by more than 5% in just a few days.
I’ll draw your attention to the GBP / USD currency pair, which has strengthened by almost 9% over the same period. This growth was due not only to a weakening USD, but also a fairly strong strengthening of GBP against most currencies, including JPY and EUR.
Now let's move on to the oil market. The first trading day of the week started with a gap down - the open price of the market was below the closing price on Friday by about $ 1 or 5%. The reason for the latest wave of sales was information that oil companies are running out of storage. At the same time, demand for oil from businesses and an increase in physical demand for raw materials is not expected to pick up in the nearest future so there is a risk of a further decline in black gold prices.
Nevertheless, it is not necessary to believe that the price of American WTI oil will remain at $ 20, As a result, with every dip it may be an opportunity to open a long position at a lower price. At the same time, traders choosing this strategy should take into account the risk of a short-term decline.
Trade with the Fibo Group!
#MarketWatch
💥Cheap money💥
The next financial crisis has already begun and it is still extremely difficult to assess its scale. A number of experts say that the economic consequences associated with this pandemic will be comparable with the consequences of the Second World War. At this stage, I would consider this forecast as pessimistic, although it cannot be ruled out.
Let me remind you that the vast majority of companies are forced to quarantine and, as a result, dismiss or send some employees on unpaid leave. During the first week of quarantine in the USA the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 3.3 million, while the usual number averages around 200 thousand. Of course, this news put pressure on the USD
Additional pressure on the US currency was exerted by information about the government’s readiness to allocate more than $ 2 trillion of financial assistance for business and the US population. On Friday, March 27, Donald Trump signed the corresponding act for the allocation of the $ 2.2, which caused the USD index to fall back to levels seen in the middle of the month. All these factors and some others have caused the USD to fall by more than 5% in just a few days.
I’ll draw your attention to the GBP / USD currency pair, which has strengthened by almost 9% over the same period. This growth was due not only to a weakening USD, but also a fairly strong strengthening of GBP against most currencies, including JPY and EUR.
Now let's move on to the oil market. The first trading day of the week started with a gap down - the open price of the market was below the closing price on Friday by about $ 1 or 5%. The reason for the latest wave of sales was information that oil companies are running out of storage. At the same time, demand for oil from businesses and an increase in physical demand for raw materials is not expected to pick up in the nearest future so there is a risk of a further decline in black gold prices.
Nevertheless, it is not necessary to believe that the price of American WTI oil will remain at $ 20, As a result, with every dip it may be an opportunity to open a long position at a lower price. At the same time, traders choosing this strategy should take into account the risk of a short-term decline.
Trade with the Fibo Group!
#MarketWatch
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This week, the OPEC+ agreement will cease to exist, while the world continues to fight the coronavirus
Starting April 1, OPEC and its former allies will be free from obligations to reduce oil production. A number of large manufacturers have already announced their intention to increase supplies, but the coronavirus may make adjustments to their plans. Global oil demand is in free fall, and storage will soon be full.
=======
Weekly Calendar:
03/30/2020, Monday
- Meeting of finance ministers on the use of stabilization measures
03/31/2020, Tuesday
- #PMI manufacturing industries in China
- March EU #inflation
04/01/2020, Wednesday
- The cessation of the existence of OPEC +
- #NonFarmPayroll US labor market preliminary data
- US Crude Oil Reserves
- #unemployment in February, forecast 7,4%
04/02/2020, Thursday
- US #tradebalance
05/03/2020, Friday
- #NonFarmPayroll US labor market data
=====
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Starting April 1, OPEC and its former allies will be free from obligations to reduce oil production. A number of large manufacturers have already announced their intention to increase supplies, but the coronavirus may make adjustments to their plans. Global oil demand is in free fall, and storage will soon be full.
=======
Weekly Calendar:
03/30/2020, Monday
- Meeting of finance ministers on the use of stabilization measures
03/31/2020, Tuesday
- #PMI manufacturing industries in China
- March EU #inflation
04/01/2020, Wednesday
- The cessation of the existence of OPEC +
- #NonFarmPayroll US labor market preliminary data
- US Crude Oil Reserves
- #unemployment in February, forecast 7,4%
04/02/2020, Thursday
- US #tradebalance
05/03/2020, Friday
- #NonFarmPayroll US labor market data
=====
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #coronavirus #crisis #financialcalendar
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China says manufacturing activity expanded in March, defying expectations of a contraction
PMI in China in March (data from the National Bureau of Statistics):
• Industry - 52.0 vs 35.7 in February
• Services sector - 52.3 vs 29.6
• Composite (industry + services) - 53.0 vs 28.9
=======
On Tuesday China announced that its official Purchasing Manager's Index for March was 52.0, which exceeded expectations for an economy affected by the outbreak of coronavirus. The growth is significant after the disastrous data from February (February PMI of China - 35.7).
=======
This only means that most companies, indeed, resumed their work. But it is obvious that Chinese business is now facing a serious collapse in external demand due to quarantines in the United States and Europe. Therefore, a return to the normal level of economic activity seems to be very smooth.
=====
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PMI in China in March (data from the National Bureau of Statistics):
• Industry - 52.0 vs 35.7 in February
• Services sector - 52.3 vs 29.6
• Composite (industry + services) - 53.0 vs 28.9
=======
On Tuesday China announced that its official Purchasing Manager's Index for March was 52.0, which exceeded expectations for an economy affected by the outbreak of coronavirus. The growth is significant after the disastrous data from February (February PMI of China - 35.7).
=======
This only means that most companies, indeed, resumed their work. But it is obvious that Chinese business is now facing a serious collapse in external demand due to quarantines in the United States and Europe. Therefore, a return to the normal level of economic activity seems to be very smooth.
=====
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#fibogroup #forex #forexnews #economy #finance #trader #China #PMI #coronavirus
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Fed will launch a new credit line for foreign central banks
The repo mechanism for foreign central banks will be launched on April 6, and its duration will be at least 6 months.
The Fed has already launched a number of programs to provide dollar loans at close to zero interest rates to other central banks for up to 84 days to ensure sufficient dollar liquidity outside the United States.
Earlier this month, the Fed reopened swap lines with five central banks in Canada, Japan and Europe, and began to provide loans of up to $60 billion to regulators in Australia, Brazil, Mexico and six other countries.
Many business transactions in the world are carried out in dollars, while international organizations issue dollar loans. The swap lines were actively used by the Fed in 2008 and 2009.
The Fed’s scale of action surpasses all that the regulator did during the 2008 global financial crisis and the debt crisis in the eurozone 2011-2012, since now dollar financing is available to a much larger number of central banks in developing economies.
=====
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The repo mechanism for foreign central banks will be launched on April 6, and its duration will be at least 6 months.
The Fed has already launched a number of programs to provide dollar loans at close to zero interest rates to other central banks for up to 84 days to ensure sufficient dollar liquidity outside the United States.
Earlier this month, the Fed reopened swap lines with five central banks in Canada, Japan and Europe, and began to provide loans of up to $60 billion to regulators in Australia, Brazil, Mexico and six other countries.
Many business transactions in the world are carried out in dollars, while international organizations issue dollar loans. The swap lines were actively used by the Fed in 2008 and 2009.
The Fed’s scale of action surpasses all that the regulator did during the 2008 global financial crisis and the debt crisis in the eurozone 2011-2012, since now dollar financing is available to a much larger number of central banks in developing economies.
=====
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