Daily Analytics from Fibo Group

Fibo Group Forex Broker

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Counterattack of central banks

Central banks around the world include anti-virus boost.
The European Central Bank has launched a program of redemption of bonds worth 750 billion euros, which will last at least until the end of the year.
The Central Bank of Australia lowered the rate to 0.25%, Brazil - to a record low 3.75%, and the Swiss regulator, although it kept the rate, announced an increase in foreign exchange interventions against the strengthening of the franc.




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Fibo Group Forex Broker

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36 0
Crisis: US Labor Market Collapse

According to the Ministry of Labor on Thursday, 281,000 people applied for benefits for the first time - 70,000 more than the week before last. The new figure is the highest for two and a half years.
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At first glance, it’s not a very important indicator for trading on currency pairs. However, in the current situation, this may become the next black swan. About half of those working in the United States are private businesses, whose rents account for the largest portion of business expenses. And it’s easier to close a business and then reopen without debt (this is better than paying rent in the absence of sales and movement restrictions).
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In the current situation, the best way out is to wait until next Thursday, there are well-founded reasons that the number of unemployed American businessmen will increase.
And these are very serious risks and maybe we will see another bottom on #EURUSD and world stock indices.

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Fibo Group Forex Broker

Junior member
36 0
🔥Market Watch🔥

💥Europe is preparing for a total quarantine 💥


On Thursday, March 19, it became quite complicated for Europe and, in particular, European currencies. Let me remind you that Italy still faces a continuous quarantine zone which restricts the movement of the population. France also followed in the footsteps of Italy and in a number of other European countries the situation remains quite complex. Given the rapid spread of the virus in Europe, the situation is bound to remain volatile in the coming days.
As a result, we observed a sharp fall in the EUR / USD currency pair which brought it to the lowest levels since 2017. At the same time, there remains a lot of buying interest around the 1.0785 level which for now should keep the Euro from suffering further losses.
The situation is similar with the GBP / USD currency pair which hit historical lows. Today we are already seeing some type of rebound with the target at 1.2000 and even to 1.2125. This scenario will be a major target but we may see a return to the support level of 1.1785. However, active market purchases are no longer feasible, since now there is no way to place a short “stop” to get a risk to profit ratio of 1 to 3 or more.
The rapid deterioration of the economic situation in Europe and the talk by several countries on the possible extension of quarantine, as well as moves by the Fed who are attempting to save the US stock market, contributed to the strengthening of the USD. I’ll draw attention to the US dollar index, which has reached its highest level since 2016, which, in turn, increases the risk of a strong correction in the short term.
Now let's move on to the oil market and in particular, American grade WTI. After collapsing to $ 20.5 per barrel, buying interest has picked up. But it’s hard to imagine a significant increase in prices until the position of Russia and Saudi Arabia on the issue of production, as well as stabilization of the situation associated with the coronavirus, changes.
And traditionally for the Friday review, we will consider two transactions for traders on the purchase of the GBP / USD currency pair in full lot. The first deal to buy was opened on Thursday, March 19, at a price of 1.1480. The Take Profit order was set at 1.1650. As you know, the pair reached the level of 1.1792 that day, but then collapsed under the support level of 1.1465. Since buyers immediately managed to return above the noted support level, it was decided to open another buy deal from the level of 1.1480, setting a Take Profit at 1.1780 - the previous maximum. The total Profit on two transactions amounted to $ 4700.

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Fibo Group Forex Broker

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US will buy a billion barrels of oil

The US Treasury Department recommends that President Donald Trump allocate $ 10-20 billion for the purchase of oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

At current prices of the American WTI grade ($ 22 per barrel for delivery in April), this means a purchase of 454-909 million barrels. The acquisition of oil will be aimed at keeping the reserve filled to capacity for a decade.

How exactly this will be done is unclear, most likely, things will not go beyond verbal rhetoric, because strategic oil reserve a week ago contained 635 million barrels with a total capacity of 727 million barrels.

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Fibo Group Forex Broker

Junior member
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📢 Forex analytics 📢

🔥Market Watch🔥

💥Italy shows more rounds of disappointing data💥


US and European stock markets are in a bearish trend and there are no real reasons the situation will change. In fact, the volatility of the stock indices reflects the real mood and expectations of large investors - a panic mood. The reason for the panic is total quarantine in most European countries, as well as other countries in the world.
It is worth noting that by the end of last week, the amount of sellers, both on the stock market and foreign exchange market, had noticeably declined. For example, buyers of the EUR / USD and GBP / US currency pairs managed to compensate for some of the lost positions. But today we are seeing a moderate weakening of EUR and GBP.
So, the quotes of the EUR / USD currency pair returned to the psychological level of 1.0700, while only a break of support at 1.0650 will indicate the possibility of a further selloff to 1.0570 and 1.0500. The situation with the GBP / USD currency pair is similar - after an unsuccessful attempt by buyers to push the pound higher, the pair returned to the support level of 1.1655. As a result, the risk of a breakdown of support at 1.1540 and a further decline to 1.1425–1.1465 is quite possible.
Let me remind you that the ECB continues to use not only verbal interventions, but also various tools to stabilize the economy. At the same time, regular statements by representatives of the ECB about the readiness to participate more actively if necessary, play an important role, thereby providing support to the stock market while at the same time putting pressure on the EUR.
Turning to the oil market, which continues to decline, I note the increasing risk of a collapse in the price of WTI in the region of $ 16– $ 18 per barrel. At the same time, I do not expect prices to remain at this level for the long-. Therefore, I consider the decline in oil prices as a more favorable point for opening long positions. Of course, we are talking about medium-term trading in the context of several weeks, possibly even months.
To sum up, I will turn to the US and their attempts to restrain panic in the financial markets, as well as among the population. We are talking about a package of incentive measures for some sectors of the economy, for example, industrial, as well as airlines, small businesses and households. They plan to allocate at least $ 1 trillion for this, which should help markets avoid further losses in the long run.

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Fibo Group Forex Broker

Junior member
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The Federal Reserve just pledged asset purchases with no limit to support markets

The Fed announced an “endless” quantitative easing to support the economy. The markets soared up.
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The press release includes a lot of incentives.
We're giving you a short summary. In our opinion, there are only two most important points:
1. Unlimited QE in relation to government bonds and mortgage securities agencies.
2. Repurchase of corporate bonds and various measures of credit support to companies in the amount of $300 billion.
The second point is very important, since it is corporate debts that are now in a severe stress and demonstrate a crushing collapse.
The markets are trying to stabilize on this news.
How long will it last? Share your opinion in the comments!

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Fibo Group Forex Broker

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Fed Official Warns of 30% Unemployment

The US government has reconsidered the forecast for the number of unemployed in the United States. This Thursday, an increase in the number of unemployed is expected to reach one million at a rate of 220 thousand per week over the past 3-5 years ...
American businesses are closed nationwide. This could provoke a halving of GDP growth in the next three months and pull the dollar even higher.
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Fibo Group Forex Broker

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36 0
The dollar is falling due to Fed stimulus measures

- The dollar fell on Tuesday: tough financing conditions eased somewhat after the US Federal Reserve did its best to provide much-needed dollar liquidity.

- On Monday, the Fed announced unlimited quantitative easing and credit market support programs in a decisive attempt to support an economy struggling with extreme trade restrictions to fight coronavirus.

We can confidently say that we are out of the phase when all assets (stocks, bonds and gold) were sold. Now the situation resembles a controlled fall.

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Fibo Group Forex Broker

Junior member
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Market Watch

The calm after the storm


The situation in the financial markets is stabilizing, but is seen as only a temporary phenomenon, since most countries still cannot control the spread of the virus. Currently, Europe and the United States are forced to keep the population at home, thereby putting added pressure on their own economies which results in an overall weakness in the global economy.
Currently, main topic is the intention of the US government to allocate about $ 2 trillion to save the economy. This stimulus package provides for business financing, as well as direct financial assistance to the population. According to data published by Reuters in the United States, about 100 million people are forced to stay at home due to quarantine, which is almost a third of the total population.
Pay attention to the US stock market, most of the shares returned to the green zone, since the allocation of interest-free loans will allow companies to significantly improve the current state of affairs, including restructuring their financial obligations, as well as redeeming their own shares at lower prices (at a market price that is currently significantly below the average for the last 12 months).
At the same time, I will draw your attention to the weakening of the US dollar, which has occurred over the last few days against most currencies. So, for example, the GBP / USD currency pair has already overcome the technical resistance area 1.1880–1.1900, thereby opening the way to the psychological and at the same time technical resistance level 1.2000.
I also draw attention to the publication of a weaker than expected report regarding business conditions, as well as the current situation and economic expectations in Germany from IFO. Despite data coming in below expectations, the demand for the EUR / USD pair remains stable which probably has more to do with USD weakness. Nevertheless, active purchases of EUR / USD should remain subdued until the signing of the bill to provide financial assistance in the United States, which is likely to exert strong, but short-term pressure on the USD.
Since most countries of the world are still in quarantine, long-term purchases of stock indices remain at risk.

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Fibo Group Forex Broker

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WHO: United States could become coronavirus epicenter

New cases of coronavirus infection are observed in the United States.

Representatives of some US states and municipalities criticize the federal government for the lack of coordinated action that provokes local competition for medical equipment. This was reported by Reuters, noting that the existence of the problem was recognized by Donald Trump.

- “The world market for face masks and ventilators is crazy,” the President of the United States tweeted. “We're helping states get equipment, but it's not easy.”

85% of the new cases of coronavirus observed in the last day were recorded in Europe and the United States (with 40% of this number in the states).
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Fibo Group Forex Broker

Junior member
36 0
Germany: recession begins

- IFO business climate index collapses from 96 to 86.1 points in March

- Assessment of the current situation failed from 99 to 93

- Business expectations collapsed from 93.1 to 79.7

These figures were slightly worse than forecasts.
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The IFO index is close to the minimum values of the previous crisis in 2008/2009 - then it fell to 80.0 (in March 2009). The assessment of the current situation was weaker, while expectations were already starting to improve.
The current assessment of the situation is still quite high, and this shows that the economy is most likely far from the bottom point. The recession is likely to intensify in the coming months.
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Fibo Group Forex Broker

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G20: Americans want to put pressure on Saudi Arabia at the summit

USA intends to put pressure on Saudi Arabia on the kingdom’s planned increase in oil production during the G20 summit scheduled on Thursday, which will be held via videoconference. This was reported on Wednesday by the Wall Street Journal, citing sources.

G20 leaders intend to discuss the spread of coronavirus, but USA also plans to raise the theme of the need to end the price war, which adversely affects US companies and banks. In particular, the United States wants to warn Saudi Arabia that the kingdom could also suffer if Western financial systems are destabilized.

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Fibo Group Forex Broker

Junior member
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Even a Saudi-Russia Truce Would Be Too Late to Save OPEC+ Legacy

On Thursday, the States held an urgent teleconference between leaders of the G-10 countries to discuss how to encourage the Saudis to make peace with the Russians.

Even if President Donald Trump could resolve the conflict between the two exporters, the kingdom had already committed to flood the crude oil market next month. And Moscow in every possible way makes it clear that it will not work. The ceasefire would stop a further collapse in prices, but it is too late to save relations between the former partners, who, until this month, together supported the oil market in a state of equilibrium.

Back in 2016, when Saudi Arabia and Russia led the global alliance of oil-producing countries, known as OPEC, the main motive for cooperation was the desire to reduce the oversupply of 300 million barrels of oil in industrialized countries, which prevented price increases.

But now the kingdom is pumping oil at full strength, producing 12 million barrels a day, and demand is falling due to the coronavirus. Goldman Sachs Group Inc estimates that stocks will rise 20 million barrels per day next month.

Even assuming that storage tanks are capable of holding such a volume, everything OPEC+ has achieved in recent years of casualties and reductions will be destroyed in one month.
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Fibo Group Forex Broker

Junior member
36 0
Market Watch

Another 3.3 million unemployed in the USA


A crisis is a time of rapid and fairly strong changes not only in the economy, but also amongst the population as panic sets in. Last week, the main talk was the significant deterioration in the economic situation in Europe, which put pressure on European currencies. Investors also began a massive exodus from all stock markets.
At this point, the US dollar and US government bonds were in great demand, generating a 10 % spike in the US dollar index and causing it to rise to the highest level since 2016. Investor sentiment has changed so far this week causing a pullback in the US currency
The main reason for the weakening of the USD remains investors' expectations of a record package of monetary stimulus from the Fed and the US government, a bearish fundamental factor for the USD and at the same time bullish for the stock market. A big jump in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States only increases the likelihood of further stimulation of the economy.
Let me remind you that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits approached the mark of 3.3 million with an average of about 200 thousand.
I will draw your attention to the EUR / USD currency pair. Buyers managed to overcome the resistance area of 1.1040–1.1065, but by the middle of the European trading session, the pair had adjusted to the psychological mark of 1.1000. This indicates a lack of buyers and for now a pause for any further gains in the dollar
Turning to the current situation in Europe,it is clear that the pessimistic situation in Italy, Spain and France is continuing as they still cannot stop the spread of the virus which may keep the Euro under pressure
I will also point out the GBP / USD currency pair - a breakdown of support at 1.2140 can cause a fairly strong wave of sales, returning the pair to 1.2000. The risk of a bearish scenario developing remains elevated, as there are still no bullish fundamental factors for the GBP, and the recent growth in the currency can be attributed to USD weakness.
I will conclude with a review of the transaction for the sale of the USD / JPY currency pair. After the breakdown of the technical support level at 110.50 the trader opened a full lot sell order. A Take Profit order was placed at the next support level of 109.50. As you can see now, the pair has fallen much further, thereby allowing the trader to earn a little more than $ 900. At the same time, the risk was less than $ 300, since the Stop Loss order was placed 25 points above the transaction opening price.

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