Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.12.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP-USD pair today faces significant volatility potential stemming from major economic releases. From the UK, traders eagerly await key data from the Office for National Statistics, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Construction Output, Trade Balance, Gross Value Added (GVA), and both Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures. Positive readings compared to forecasts can significantly strengthen GBP, indicating robust economic health and potentially increasing bullish momentum. Conversely, the US Dollar (USD) eyes the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment and inflation expectation reports. Stronger-than-expected data could boost USD, exerting bearish pressure on GBP/USD.


Price Action:
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 timeframe exhibits a classic ascending triangle formation, indicative of bullish pressure. Price action has repeatedly tested the clearly defined horizontal resistance (supply zone) around 1.2576 (orange zone). Concurrently, the pair demonstrates consistently rising higher lows along the ascending teal trendline. The previous downtrend (red line) has been decisively broken, suggesting a bullish shift. Traders should closely monitor a confirmed breakout via a solid H4 close above resistance or below rising support to identify directional bias.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA (90): The EMA (90) has consistently supported GBPUSD's price, reinforcing bullish sentiment. It currently acts as dynamic support, underpinning recent higher lows and guiding price upward.
RSI (14): At 64, the RSI indicator on GBPUSD indicates solid bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This signals room for further upside potential before exhaustion sets in, supporting bullish continuation.
Stoch (5,3,3): The Stochastic Oscillator registers values of 94 and 87, suggesting immediate short-term overbought conditions. This indicates caution for potential short-term corrections, despite broader bullish momentum.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support lies along the ascending trendline around 1.2480. Secondary support is significantly lower, near the prior demand zone and breakout base at approximately 1.2300.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is established at the flat supply zone around 1.2576. A decisive break above this level opens potential bullish targets near 1.2700-1.2750 based on measured moves.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP-USD pair's current H4 analysis signals bullish potential supported by ascending triangle price action, reinforced by EMA (90), RSI, and Stochastic indicators. However, the overbought Stochastic signals potential short-term volatility and pullbacks. Upcoming key economic data releases from both GBP and USD can significantly influence market dynamics and catalyze the breakout direction. Traders should wait for a clear H4 candle close outside the triangle to confirm entry, using prudent stop-loss placements and volatility buffers to manage breakout risks effectively.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.12.2025

 

[FXGlory]

XAGUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.15.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The XAGUSD (Silver/US Dollar) pair is influenced by today's significant economic event, the New York Manufacturing Index release from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Traders closely monitor this index as an important indicator of economic health in the U.S., where a higher-than-expected figure generally strengthens the USD, potentially adding pressure to commodities priced in USD, such as silver. Consequently, market volatility may increase around the time of this news release.


Price Action:
Analyzing the price action on the H4 timeframe, XAG/USD has been consistently trading within an ascending channel. Currently, the price is testing the upper boundary of the channel, displaying difficulty in breaking above this resistance. If the bulls fail to maintain momentum, a corrective move toward the lower support zone is likely. However, a decisive breakout above the upper channel boundary could extend the bullish move, potentially targeting around 44.200, a level unseen since 2011.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (28): The RSI is currently at 64, suggesting moderate bullish momentum. However, it remains below the overbought threshold (70), indicating potential room for further upward movement before encountering significant resistance.
MACD (12,26,9): The MACD histogram is positive (0.32), positioned above the signal line (0.2), indicating prevailing bullish momentum. Traders should remain vigilant for signs of declining momentum, which could precede a correction.
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): Stochastic values are presently at 70 and 75, indicating the asset is nearing overbought territory. Traders should monitor this closely, as a stochastic cross below the 80 level could suggest an impending bearish reversal or correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located near the 41.200-41.500 area, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and previous consolidation zones.
Resistance: The critical resistance lies at the channel’s upper band around 42.200, followed by the key psychological target of 44.200 if bullish momentum persists.


Conclusion and Consideration:
XAG-USD’s price action on the H4 chart indicates continued bullish sentiment within the ascending channel. However, key indicators such as RSI, MACD, and Stochastic hint at potential short-term exhaustion or correction. Traders should carefully watch for price reactions at current resistance levels and the forthcoming U.S. economic release. Due to potential volatility around the New York Manufacturing Index, prudent risk management and vigilance are advised.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAG/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAGUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.15.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.16.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USD/CAD currency pair's volatility today will significantly depend on the scheduled economic releases. Key USD data such as Retail Sales Ex Autos, Import Price Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Rate, and NAHB Housing Market Index could considerably influence the pair. A stronger-than-expected result in these indicators could propel the US dollar higher against its Canadian counterpart. Conversely, Canada's economic data remains relatively quiet today, placing the focus squarely on USD-driven market dynamics.


Price Action
Analyzing USD/CAD on the H4 timeframe, after a period of bearish movement, price action transitioned into a bullish trend, forming a clear ascending channel. Price movements have predominantly reacted to the channel's midline, illustrating it as a significant level of dynamic support and resistance. Recently, price candles breached the channel's lower trend line; however, current momentum suggests this break might be short-lived. A bullish re-entry back into the channel is highly probable, targeting the midline resistance around the 1.3885 level.


Key Technical Indicators
RSI (28): The Relative Strength Index indicator stands at 41.20, indicating proximity to the crucial 39.87 level. Historically, reaching this RSI level has consistently triggered bullish reversals, reinforcing the probability of an upward price correction shortly.
Williams %R: The Williams %R indicator currently sits around -90.69, indicating severely oversold conditions. Such levels generally precede bullish recoveries, aligning with the potential price reversal back within the bullish channel.
Moving Average (200): Price candles are trading slightly below the 200-period moving average, signifying short-term bearishness. However, as candles frequently oscillate around this line, the current positioning might indicate an overshoot rather than a genuine bearish breakout.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate and strong support is visible at the recent breakout level near 1.3725, followed by further support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
Resistance: The most immediate resistance is positioned at the channel's midline around 1.3885, with further resistance at the channel's upper boundary.


Conclusion and Consideration
The technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair indicates a likely bullish reversal from the current oversold conditions, as supported by RSI, Williams %R, and historical price action patterns. Traders should pay close attention to today's USD economic data releases, which may significantly influence price volatility. Given the currency pair’s current dynamics, traders should be cautious and look for confirmations before taking bullish positions targeting the midline resistance at 1.3885.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.16.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.17.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURGBP currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP). Today, the Euro is expected to face notable volatility with ECB President Christine Lagarde delivering opening remarks at the 10th Annual ECB Research Conference, alongside a speech from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. Both events could provide forward guidance on Eurozone monetary policy. Additionally, CPI data for the Eurozone remains a crucial focus as inflation pressures continue to influence ECB rate expectations. On the UK side, attention is on inflation-linked releases such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI, Retail Price Index (RPI), and Housing Price Index (HPI), all of which will provide important insights into the Bank of England’s policy path. Traders should anticipate sharp price movements in EURGBP due to overlapping high-impact events from both economies.


Price Action:
The EUR/GBP H4 chart shows that the pair has been consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle pattern for nearly two months, with multiple tests of both bullish and bearish long-term trendlines. Recently, the price surged with two strong bullish candles but reversed into a red candle after touching the long-term descending bearish trendline between the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, halting further bullish extension. This highlights the significance of the triangle structure as a battle zone between bulls and bears. The price has tested both trendlines at least three times without a breakout, and the apex of the triangle aligns near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, suggesting a decisive breakout may occur soon.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The short-term moving average (MA 9 – blue) has crossed above the long-term moving average (MA 17 – orange), signaling short-term bullish momentum. Both averages are sloping upward, supporting the possibility of continued bullish attempts unless rejected strongly at resistance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 61.51, leaning toward bullish territory but not yet overbought. This indicates that while momentum is on the upside, the pair still has room for further gains before hitting extreme levels.
Williams %R (14): The Williams %R indicator stands at -9.85, placing it in overbought territory. This suggests that despite bullish momentum, a near-term pullback or consolidation is likely as the market has already priced in strong buying pressure.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Strong support lies at 0.8654, where the bullish trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci level converge, offering a solid base for buyers.
Resistance: Key resistance is positioned at 0.8696, corresponding to the long-term descending bearish trendline and just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR-GBP H4 technical analysis highlights a pair locked within a tightening triangle structure, with both bulls and bears defending critical Fibonacci levels. Short-term indicators such as the MA crossover support bullish continuation, while the Williams %R warns of possible consolidation or correction. Given today’s high-impact ECB speeches and Eurozone CPI outlook, as well as upcoming UK inflation figures, traders should remain cautious for breakout opportunities near the triangle apex around 38.2% Fib. The price action suggests that whichever side breaks first will likely define the medium-term trend for EUR GBP.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/GBP is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURGBP. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.17.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.18.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD currency pair today is anticipated to exhibit significant volatility due to crucial economic data releases from both Australia and the US. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is set to release employment data, which significantly impacts the Australian Dollar (AUD). Positive employment figures exceeding forecasts would strengthen AUD as employment growth directly correlates with higher consumer spending and economic confidence. Concurrently, the USD may experience volatility due to the release of initial jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Lower-than-expected jobless claims and higher manufacturing index figures would enhance USD strength.


Price Action:
Technical analysis of AUDUSD on the H4 timeframe indicates a bullish sentiment within an ascending channel, with price currently testing the upper boundary. Additionally, price action reveals a smaller ascending channel formation indicating short-term bullish strength. Currently, AUD-USD has encountered resistance at the previous high area, which may now act as a crucial support zone. The recent formation of three consecutive bearish candles, resembling a "Three Black Crows" pattern, signals potential short-term bearish correction toward the midpoint of the larger ascending channel, before a possible bullish resumption.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (28): The RSI indicator at 54 suggests neutral momentum. The current RSI level implies that AUDUSD has ample room for price movements in either direction without immediate overbought or oversold conditions. This aligns with the possibility of corrective moves towards channel midpoint support before resuming an upward trajectory.
MACD (12,26,9): MACD readings currently stand at 0.000662 (MACD line) and 0.001369 (signal line), indicating slight bearish momentum due to the MACD line being below the signal line. This condition points towards potential short-term bearishness or a corrective pullback within the ongoing bullish channel.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate key support is found at the recent high zone, approximately at 0.7420, which coincides with the midpoint of the larger ascending channel. Additional support is visible near 0.7380, the lower boundary of the smaller channel.
Resistance: Current resistance lies around the top boundary of the ascending channel at approximately 0.7485, with further resistance anticipated near psychological level 0.7500.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Technical indicators and price action analysis for AUD-USD on the H4 chart suggest a potential short-term corrective move downwards, aligning with RSI neutrality and MACD bearish signals. However, the broader bullish channel remains intact, suggesting eventual bullish continuation towards the channel's upper boundaries. Traders must closely monitor today's economic news releases from Australia and the US, as these fundamental factors may significantly impact market volatility and direction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
09.18.2025