Current Global Economic State/Outlook

What in the name of hell is going on with stocks!!
How hasn't the S&P/DJIA plummeted again?!?

It really is true when they say that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!
There is no justification to the level these are at...
The world is fk'd!
Mass filing for bankruptcies en-route...

It just makes no sense
 
The lawyers are having a lovely time !!
They thrive on anarchy and chaos.
I expect Buffet is buying up semi bust companies by the bucket load.
 
Nowler said:
What in the name of hell is going on with stocks!!
How hasn't the S&P/DJIA plummeted again?!?

It really is true when they say that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent!
There is no justification to the level these are at...
The world is fk'd!
Mass filing for bankruptcies en-route...

It just makes no sense
Click to expand...


It is worth what price it is at. It is what it is. Don't be tempted to go down the bat sonar road....
 
Hi Nowler,
Just wondering how the Irish south of the border are for taking orders from Brussels/Berlin etc.
Brushing up on your schoolboy French and German ?
 
Pat494 said:
Hi Nowler,
Just wondering how the Irish south of the border are for taking orders from Brussels/Berlin etc.
Brushing up on your schoolboy French and German ?
Click to expand...
No idea.
Probably best to ask someone that lives there :)
 
Here's an interesting back and forth on the situation with the U.S and China.
- Who's holding the stronger cards?
- How might it play out?
- Is a War possible?
- How do they compare against each other


 
How would painful inflation in the U.S affect the rest of the world?
Directly and indirectly...


This question was prompted after I watched this:

 
I don't understand very well why the markets and people are so happy.
IMO we will see a crisis much bigger than previous in 2008.

Maybe it's the calm that precedes the storm.
 
CharlieSheen99 said:
I don't understand very well why the markets and people are so happy.
IMO we will see a crisis much bigger than previous in 2008.

Maybe it's the calm that precedes the storm.
Click to expand...

Because Central Banks are so heavily on the buy side.
People will keep dancing for as long as the Central Banks keep playing music.

The U.S economy plays a massive role in the global economy, and considering this is an election year, and considering the stimulus cheques issued out by the government, I'm not surprised we are where we are. We may see more stimulus cheques in July/August.

I am still not bullish though... I'm not playing this dangerous game.
Coronavirus has been an interesting factor, and I'm still eager to see how it all pans out for the rest of 2020.

Germany's virus reproduction rate (R) is 2.88, there are flare ups in certain parts of the U.S... the UK are opening up more too.
Very interesting weeks ahead
 
China and the US have the mindsets of 2 teenage gangs, posturing.
When that is done. war may well break out. The consequences could be disastrous for the 2 countries and also the rest.
So unnecessary really, but vacating the top position isn't easy.
The Bush/Obama era let China through to take over. Can Trump reverse it ? We shall see.
 
Last edited:
Pat494 said:
China and the US have the mindsets of 2 teenage gangs, posturing.
When that is done. war may well break out. The consequences could be disastrous for the 2 countries and also the rest.
So unnecessary really, but vacating the top position isn't easy.
The Bush/Obama era let China through to take over. Can Trump reverse it ? We shall see.
Click to expand...

I dont think Bush/Obama let China though. The fall of the US was inevitable due to the system the US chose to adopt. You cannot expect so much prosperity without one day having to pay the piper. This is why each cycle be becoming more and more volitile. We live beyond our means until we are forced to deleverage. But we never pay it all back... just enough to kickstarter another expansion phase which is driven by credit/investment- debt.

Just wait a few more months until the extraordinary debt accrued over the last 5 months is really felt. Cycles happen due to debt reaching a tipping point and credit/investment dries up.

We were due a painful recession soon regardless. But people seem to think the virus was it. It wasnt. It just made whats coming worse.

Central Banks across the world expanded their balance sheets to unthinkable levels, further increasing the problem - debt. Adding more fuel to the fire.

People are confusing the stock market with being the economy. The economy across the globe is in terrible shape.

In regards to the conflict between China and the US. I agree with your comparison. But that's the reality. Never before has the top spot been handed over peacefully... the US will be dragged down, kicking and screaming.
 
Nowler said:
I dont think Bush/Obama let China though. The fall of the US was inevitable due to the system the US chose to adopt. You cannot expect so much prosperity without one day having to pay the piper. This is why each cycle be becoming more and more volitile. We live beyond our means until we are forced to deleverage. But we never pay it all back... just enough to kickstarter another expansion phase which is driven by credit/investment- debt.

Just wait a few more months until the extraordinary debt accrued over the last 5 months is really felt. Cycles happen due to debt reaching a tipping point and credit/investment dries up.

We were due a painful recession soon regardless. But people seem to think the virus was it. It wasnt. It just made whats coming worse.

Central Banks across the world expanded their balance sheets to unthinkable levels, further increasing the problem - debt. Adding more fuel to the fire.

People are confusing the stock market with being the economy. The economy across the globe is in terrible shape.

In regards to the conflict between China and the US. I agree with your comparison. But that's the reality. Never before has the top spot been handed over peacefully... the US will be dragged down, kicking and screaming.
Click to expand...
Ever the optimist - eh Nowls? :p

More seriously: I'd tend to agree that a storm's acomin' and we'd all do well to use our weather eye especially in view of the conflicting influences we've got going on atm. At some point the precarious balance will start to tip and the world will be dramatically over-supplied in tightened sphincters but as in most of these cases, predicting the end of the world is pretty pointless. You either get carted off to the funny farm or come in for abuse and ridicule whether you're right or wrong. IMNSHO if you believe that we are indeed for a Big One then it makes more sense to consider what the world will look like afterwards than fretting about exactly when it's going to hit...and act accordingly.

As Vaughan has just pointed out the USA (and Powell) are running out of road down which to kick the can and if they can't get their shit together to build a beautiful wall I very much doubt that a new stretch of can-kicking freeway is on the cards either.

And in closing: what about Covids 20 to 25? Currently incubating across Asia...and for that matter, the impending Geomagnetic storm? ...not for tomorrow, not for Christmas but coming to a planet near you, in your lifetime:)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

A
Indian Economy Analysis for 2016
Replies
0
Views
9K
Americassed
A
K
IMF World Economic Outlook - July 2010 Report (released)
Replies
0
Views
3K
kylef
K
leovirgo
Global economy outlook 2008
Replies
9
Views
4K
Probafix
P
Dan Moskowitz
  • Article
Swing & Position Trading How China’s Ailing Economy is Becoming Contagious
Replies
1
Views
3K
Pat494
Pat494
S
GOLD and its role in the current global economy.
Replies
0
Views
1K
seanzw05
S
Top