CTAinvestor market analysis & tips

[ctainvestor]

At the Open. Looking for a trigger.

09:47CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. After a few days of direct-USD market, we may have the crosses playing a bigger role and impact on FX prices from now on. I am basically referring to the EUR crosses, who have been lethargic for the last couple of weeks approximately, but that could have their say in the markets from this point on.

On the majors technical picture, the USD is having an easy time at the moment, as it is not being put under serious pressure by the Europeans, and even it is making some good progress vs the GBP. Important to highlight the fact that the daily trendline break in Cable last week (around 1.5790), did have a minor follow-through (as the unit spiked to 1.5860 in Friday), but failed to materialize and hold onto those gains and now threatens with a possible break lower. Indeed, if the unit moves back below 1.5740, some fireworks could be seen there. We have tested the level already, but is coinciding with the extreme OS level intraday, so I'm expecting a bit of a bounce here.

As for the Europeans, the Euro has some resistance around 1.3250 and the Swissy some good support around 0.9765, so let's see it for some fast contra trades if those levels are reached.

Before concluding this opening post, here is the long/short retail positioning ratios for the major FX pairs + gold.

Long/Short ratio Dec 13, 2010 10:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
71.64% 28.36%
2. USD/CHF
71.01% 28.99%
3. XAU/USD
70.40% 29.60%
4. USD/CAD
70.14% 29.86%
5. AUD/USD
50.46% 49.54%
6. EUR/USD
48.38% 51.62%
7. GBP/USD
41.96% 58.04%

 

[ctainvestor]

11:05CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3273 - extreme OS 1.3103
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.5897 - extreme OS 1.5695
USD/JPY - extreme OB 84.569 - extreme OS 83.598
USD/CHF - extreme OB 0.9897 - extreme OS 0.9734
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9925 - extreme OS 0.9775

 

[ctainvestor]

Trade Idea: Buy GBP/USD @ market 1.5735, stop 1.5715 target 1.5775 (sent in real-time via twitter - ctainvestor)
14:29 CET

We are seeing a clear double base in Cable which may target the high-end of today's range if confirmed, so we're taking the long position with stop on a break of the range as indicated.

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Close. Heavy USD selling.

18:30CET

Well, choosing the title for this closing post hasn't been much difficult, as we are in the middle of a fast USD selling across the board, with the early indications given by the AUD/USD when it broke above 0.99 quickly followed by EUR/USD, gaining over 200 pips in the day from 1.32 to 1.34, and Cable, passing the 1.5850 mark with ease.

However, this looks to me like 'too much too fast', as we have the units way overbought (OB) on an intraday basis and we should definitely should see some corrections if there has to be a healthy move in prospect. I think that if anyone is trying to short the USD, should wait for at least 40-50 pip retracements from here or else get exposed to a tricky entry level, as current levels are not attractive to do so.

More so, I'd take a long USD/CHF here @ 0.9675, stop 0.9645 and I would go for a new test above 0.97 (this has been sent in real time through twitter), I am not in any way fond of the currencies making further progress vs the USD today, or at least if they do so, to do it in a very modest fashion.

Before closing, let's take a look @ long/short retail rations in FX. That's it from me, Tony Juste, for today. I look forward to your company tomorrow here @ CTAinvestor.com, a site brought to you by www.investors-europe.com.

Dec 13, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
73.50% 26.50%
2. USD/CHF
72.06% 27.94%
3. USD/CAD
71.04% 28.96%
4. XAU/USD
71.00% 29.00%
5. AUD/USD
45.69% 54.31%
6. GBP/USD
44.89% 55.11%
7. EUR/USD
42.23% 57.77%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Open. USD under pressure.

09:47CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Like yesterday, the USD has started the day under some pressure (although less than what we saw yesterday)and has posted new intraday lows vs the Europeans, although, as I said, nothing dramatic at the moment.

Honestly, the idea to short the USD, particularly vs the CHF, at/around these levels is of little attractive to me. In fact, I would definitely suggest, as sent via Twitter (ctainvestor) to all the followers, to long USD/CHF @ current rate around 0.9645, put a stop clearly below 0.9625, and target for a bounce above 0.97.

It is the Swissy the most interesting major cross for the time being, at least this is what I think. I would like to think otherwise, and get ready for USD short positions, but prices have not retraced as I wanted them to overnight, and they look rather expensive to me even to initiate an intraday trade.

EUR/USD above 1.3420 or Cable above 1.5870 are simply not levels where I will short the USD, let alone initiate a positional trade. Therefore, I will stick to my plan for today and try to trade fast contras on USD/CHF, trying to get as low and around 0.9630-40 as possible, looking for a modest spike where I can unload the trades.

To conclude this opening post, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour long/short:

Dec 14, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
72.72% 27.28%
2. XAU/USD
71.34% 28.66%
3. USD/CHF
70.71% 29.29%
4. USD/CAD
67.41% 32.59%
5. EUR/USD
49.51% 50.49%
6. GBP/USD
47.48% 52.52%
7. AUD/USD
46.35% 53.65%

 

[ctainvestor]

Weekly Market Analysis

11:32CET

The new chapter of my longer-term piece of analysis, prepared for broker investors-europe.com is now available at the following link. Hope you find it useful.

http://www.investors-europe.com/content/analysis/74/index.html

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Close. USD selling continues.

18:18CET

The selling of the USD continues at good speed and the Euro got close to 1.35 today amid global EUR buying across the board. USD/CHF and EUR/CHF are also good indicators of the situation, i.e., that the CHF acting as a safe-haven currency is working at the moment and is gaining ground virtually against every other currency.

Technically speaking, and despite the adverse outlook for the time being, I would stick to the tactics of buying the USD on reasonable dips, but having said that, any USD rally can be also shorted out as prices do not seem to cooperate much with the greenback at the moment. EUR/USD longs from 1.3380 or shorts from 1.3450-60 look like a good range strategy to me.

Before leaving, here's how retail traders are long/short on majors at this hour.Thanks for being there, I look forward to seeing you all again tomorrow or on twitter.com/ctainvestor for real-time tips. Brought to you by offshore firm ivestors-europe.com.
Dec 14, 2010 18:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
74.59% 25.41%
2. USD/CHF
72.77% 27.23%
3. XAU/USD
70.18% 29.82%
4. USD/CAD
69.03% 30.97%
5. GBP/USD
50.59% 49.41%
6. EUR/USD
48.33% 51.67%
7. AUD/USD
43.56% 56.44%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Open. Techs in play again.

09:25CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. It is good to see the techs playing their part on most of the majors (we'll leave the USD/CHF aside for the time being), and find that yesterday's rise in EUR/USD may've just been a new bear trap to get as many longs as possible at the highest of the range. Because, if you have not noticed, we still are in a trading range, and it would be technically bad if it would be otherwise. Why? Let's take the EUR/USD as the benchmark pair here for obvious reasons. The unit broke an important support line when it traded below 1.32, but the follow-through to that break was non-existent, hence the possibility of the spikes we've seen. Fine. If the Euro would've continued yesterday's rally and threaten the 1.36-1.37 level, that would've not been OK from a technical point of view.

Cable's story is more or less the same, but in this case we have a dynamic resistance line around 1.59 that has been capping the upside, and now any break below 1.5650 could be a major trigger for shorts. Having said that, let's also watch USD/JPY, who held 82.80 important support yesterday, and it may mean better support for the USD ahead.

Adding to all of this the fact that despite yesterday's attempt, Gold finished the day below $1,395, where we have the dynamic line acting as resistance, and that the daily divergence there is still in full force, so I'm keeping shorts here, USD positive as well.

For today, I'd like to maintain my strategy of buying USD on dips, particularly USD/CHF around 0.96, short EUR/USD around 1.3350 and short Cable around 1.5810. The extreme intraday levels may be a help to that.

Before finishing this opening post, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour:

Dec 15, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
74.43% 25.57%
2. USD/CHF
74.18% 25.82%
3. USD/CAD
70.02% 29.98%
4. XAU/USD
68.53% 31.47%
5. EUR/USD
47.18% 52.82%
6. GBP/USD
46.98% 53.02%
7. AUD/USD
44.84% 55.16%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Close. USD bounce.

19:45CET

A good technical USD rebound on the back of the earlier comments mentioned here that the USD was getting rather oversold vs the CHF. It has been the USD/CHF surge of around 100 pips what has caused the USD to gain vs the majors, sinking the GBP (EUR/GBP higher by around 100 pips today), and causing the EUR to retrace to current 1.3260 levels, where we should see some support coming in.

There were reports earlier in the day that CBs were buying the EUR around 1.3350, but I don't think that was credible enough. Because what is credible is what the charts show, and basically, the fact that the USD got oversold vs the EUR earlier in the day (and CHF), was more important than any market rumor.

Having said that, I don't like current levels for long USD as we've covered some good ground, but that doesn't mean I don't like the USD, but rather that one has to choose levels carefully in these volatile times. I would wait for a decent retracement and the go for it, ie, 1.3320 in EUR/USD and 0.9620 in USD/CHF, going for 40-50 pips each time.

Before calling it a day, let me give you the retail traders long/short ratio on majors. Thank you for reading this blog, brought to you by offshore broker investors-europe.com.

Dec 15, 2010 20:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/CAD
76.13% 23.87%
2. USD/CHF
75.77% 24.23%
3. USD/JPY
72.59% 27.41%
4. XAU/USD
70.57% 29.43%
5. GBP/USD
53.50% 46.50%
6. EUR/USD
48.64% 51.36%
7. AUD/USD
47.51% 52.49%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Open. Ready for action on EUR crosses?

09:23CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. I didn't believe much the new record low in EUR/CHF and that has proven to be a very short-lived case, for the unit has bounced around 100 pips to current 1.2850, indicating that perhaps the worst of the selling pressure is gone. I am seeing a lot of volatility/activity in EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY, and they may be the real market movers ahead of Christmas and Year-end trading. I would not dare to short any of the two right now, but in the EUR/CHF case, my position is quite bullish, and any dips you may find I'd suggest to go long with them, with a tight stop below current lows and target above 1.30. Yes, it may not sound like an intraday plan altogether, but I don't think that if the scenario prints out correct and we make pips, you'll care that much about that.

On the majors front, Cable's dip below 1.5650, and as it was expected and noted here, caused a fast sell-off which put all GBP crosses under pressure. The unit is rather steady this morning, trading around 1.5580, but I will not touch it for the time being. And neither will I touch EUR/USD, as price wise it is telling me to go long, but I'm reluctant to buy the currency, especially when the crosses might help the USD (USD/CHF and USD/JPY are good long USD vehicles for now, too). Technically speaking, going long EUR/USD around 1.3225-35, with a stop below 1.3185 may just prove to be OK.

Before finishing this post, let me show you how retail traders are positioning themselves long/short at this hour. See that GBP/USD and EUR/USD have breached parity in favor of longs, so they should feel some more pressure from here on.

Dec 16, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/CAD
74.70% 25.30%
2. USD/CHF
74.23% 25.77%
3. XAU/USD
72.24% 27.76%
4. USD/JPY
71.76% 28.24%
5. GBP/USD
58.53% 41.47%
6. EUR/USD
53.69% 46.31%
7. AUD/USD
49.91% 50.09%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Close. The CHF star shining bright.

18:34CET

The Swiss players are pushing their currency higher this afternoon in another impulse to new record highs vs the EUR and near all-time lows vs USD, and this is the main FX topic for the time being. The other pairs seem to be dancing at the song of the CHF crosses, so it will be interesting to keep an eye on them for the time being. I don't like the CHF strength and will certainly not take it at current levels, so either wait for contras or ignore it, but certainly don't play the CHF strength for the time being.

In the other pairs, I will only highlight the fact, the good technical point, that EUR/USD held its moderate support @ 1.3180 and bounced modestly, which indicates that despite the pair's softness (the EU summit ahead of the weekend may have some impact on the pair), techs are still working fine.

Before concluding this closing post, find below how retail traders are positioning themselves long/short at this hour. Thank you for reading my piece of space on the internet. Brought to you by great offshore broker investors-europe.com.

Dec 16, 2010 18:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/CHF
73.62% 26.38%
2. USD/JPY
73.33% 26.67%
3. USD/CAD
72.95% 27.05%
4. XAU/USD
71.68% 28.32%
5. GBP/USD
50.23% 49.77%
6. EUR/USD
48.24% 51.76%
7. AUD/USD
47.92% 52.08%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Open. It's crosses time.

09:45CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Just few days before Christmas time, but the market is showing some of its cards already. CHF and JPY crosses are the main dominant factors of the market at the moment, with EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY being the 2 crosses that I will focus my attention for today, as they are driving the EUR and most of the direct USD crosses as I write this opening post.

EUR/USD slipped back below the magnet line (broken support line that is not acting as resistance line but rather as a magnet line), and I believe it will be doing so for the time being unless an unexpected event occurs. GBP/USD is benefiting from the EUR/GBP sell-off (the unit hit a dynamic resistance line @ 0.8550 and tanked very fast), but it's getting close to extreme OB levels @ 1.5575, so I would not touch it on the long side for now, or even attempt fast contras if the high 1.55's are seen.

USD/JPY and USD/CHF are, as said before, dominated by the crosses, and therefore analyzing them may not be that important for the time being. However, it's important to note that the former has a 4hr divergence that is weighing on it and the latter is moving close to extreme OS level intraday @ 0.9640, where small longs might attempted.

STRATEGIES FOR THE DAY

EUR/USD - Sell above 1.3200-10 (we would find extreme OB levels there) and/or Buy below 1.3125 (we will find the extreme OS level there)
USD/CHF - Sell only above 0.9720 and/or Buy around 0.9640-30 as a fast contra with a few pips target
GBP/USD - Sell anything above 1.5570 as a fast contra for fast pips and attempt modest longs @ 1.5525 expecting the current intraday uptrend line to hold.

In other markets, AUD/USD and Gold are both rising today as the latter is testing key dynamic resistance off the recent highs, as the unit is trading @ $1,385. I'm still bearish there but I feel that a new breach of $1,400 might be catastrophic for my interests. Needless to say that the daily megadivergence there (even weekly now) is not paying off anything at the moment.

Before concluding this post, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves at this hour:

Dec 20, 2010 10:00 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
75.13% 24.87%
2. USD/CHF
71.65% 28.35%
3. XAU/USD
71.00% 29.00%
4. USD/CAD
65.33% 34.67%
5. GBP/USD
53.24% 46.76%
6. EUR/USD
49.80% 50.20%
7. AUD/USD
48.45% 51.55%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Close. CHF, Gold...and something else.

18:43CET

It (perhaps) is going to be the story of the year-end. EUR/CHF new record lows day after day are evidencing that there is at least one cross of real interest to blood-seekers and that they are willing to do anything in their power to push it to extremes before anything meaningful can be seen in reverse.

Indeed, 1.2633 is the new record low to note down, maybe the last one for now, maybe not. One thing is for sure, there is plenty of trading in that cross, and that is affecting its two major components, i.e, EUR/USD and USD/CHF. However, USD/CHF is being a 'side effect' on the process, as it is mainly a EUR thing altogether.

EUR/USD has tanked to sub-1.31 levels, although is trading above the 200 daily SMA @ 1.3102 as I write this, and it just gave me a false trading signal in the 1hr chart as I had a long trigger that did not materialize. However, a new long trigger could be seen shortly, and that might just cover the earlier loss, any new stop on longs must be below moderate support 1.3060.

GBP/USD, on the contrary, gave us 3 good technical triggers that more than compensated for the EUR/USD single loss. As I had reported on the morning's opening commentary, I was looking to short the unit @ 1.5570 and then buy around 1.5525 as those 2 levels should work on a first attempt and so they did. The break of the trendline off Friday lows intraday was more than a good signal to go with and as I reported via twitter (www.twitter.com/ctainvestor), we had a good technical trigger to follow there. The final target @ 1.5485 printed fast in early afternoon, when the USD saw some buying vs the majors.

Not worth talking about the JPY these days, although I feel we may see the crosses there explode anytime soon, for on a mid-term basis they are starting to look rather bullish to me.

Before concluding the day, let me give you how retail traders are positioning themselves long/short on majors. Keep also an eye on Gold, the first attempt to break the resistance line off the recent highs failed, but the unit is still close to it. Thank you for watching the site, which is brought to you by good offshore brokerage firm investors-europe.com.

Dec 20, 2010 18:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
75.84% 24.16%
2. USD/CHF
73.49% 26.51%
3. XAU/USD
69.98% 30.02%
4. USD/CAD
59.77% 40.23%
5. GBP/USD
50.26% 49.74%
6. EUR/USD
47.03% 52.97%
7. AUD/USD
45.20% 54.80%