CTAinvesor Market Analysis

[ctainvestor]

TRADE IDEA: BUY EUR/USD here @ market 1.3185, stop 1.3155, target 1.3245 (powered through www.investors-europe.com trading platform @ 1.31839/1.31850 spread) - get them all in real-time through Twitter

 

[ctainvestor]

TRADE IDEA: BUY EUR/USD here @ market 1.3145, stop 1.3125, target 1.3205 - get them all in real-time through Twitter

 

[ctainvestor]

EUR/USD second capitulation in three days, as unit does not move from extreme OS levels intraday and threatens to break the 1.31 mark.

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Close. Capitulation (part II and no comment...).

17:52CET

A very disappointing start of the week, from a technical point of view. It has become a very rare case now that 2 out of the last 3 trading days have seen a currency capitulation in just one direction. In the current almost historical case (when analyzed from the point of view of my extreme OB/OS readings), we have seen a new wave of very aggressive EUR/USD selling, which, in the other hand, has not led to a big raise of longs by retail traders, which I simply cannot believe, as it means most of them are making tons of money under these conditions, and I simply refuse to accept that.

The trip towards the 50% Fibo of the big 1.18-1.42 move (1.3080) may be considered by some of you as a technical move, but the speed with which the event has taken place is by no means technical or rational. The Euro accumulates aberration levels or technical failures from the low 1.32's now, and it's easy to see that the market is taking little care to correct that, at least for the time being. I would anyway be wary of new shorts, although most of the sites are calling for a EUR/USD destruction, and perhaps it will be them having the last laugh this time, I don't know.

The technical ideas suggested today worked nothing as the market dictated a different rule today, i.e, it abandoned any technical rationality to become a one-way traffic jam, making it easy for the mass media to play their snake charmer's role they long to do when something smells of a crisis or similar. Anyway I refuse to accept that these snake charmers will succeed in making of the market a non-technical environment from now on...

Before calling it a day, find below the long/short retail ratio, and you probably will shake your heads as much I do as there is something wrong there. I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my site on the web, sponsored by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 29, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
75.89% 24.11%
2. USD/CHF
69.97% 30.03%
3. XAU/USD
68.89% 31.11%
4. USD/CAD
59.14% 40.86%
5. AUD/USD
52.93% 47.07%
6. EUR/USD
51.52% 48.48%
7. GBP/USD
46.65% 53.35%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Open. CHF may be the bigger threat to EUR and USD.

09:26CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. In other market circumstances, I'd start by reminding you that Tuesdays are usually USD-selling (mild or aggressive) days, but I find it prudent, and more taking into account what happened last Tuesday, not to do so. However, the main topic so far this morning isn't the EUR or USD: it's the CHF. The unit, who as I repeatedly said was forming many negative divergences in USD/CHF, has finally obliged and is pushing all pairs lower, dictating the market pace, and making the other crosses look rather irrelevant at this point. Well, I'm starting to hear and read that it is because of the fragile situation of the stock markets and bla bla bla, but the true fact is that charts where pointing to a lower USD/CHF, and that's what we have now. Whether this CHF brake on the USD advance will have any further impact on other USD crosses is something I don't know for sure yet.

On the other fronts, the day starts more or less where we left it, but I'm sure that there will be some more action from here, which I will try to describe in real time through twitter and ctainvestor. EUR/USD is threatening the 1.31 mark again as the single currency keeps being pressured on all fronts at the moment, although technically speaking is forming some kind of a possible support pattern, we'll see. THe JPY is also higher this morning, as a result of the CHF strength, but also as a result of the many resistances found around 84.20-50, which, if not broken, may send all the crosses way lower. We have EUR/JPY below 110 as I write this opening post, a bit surprising technically, to be honest.

Finishing this opening post with the retail long/short ratio for your review. As you see, it's just amazing to see EUR/USD longs below parity, something I still don't get...

Nov 30, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
76.26% 23.74%
2. XAU/USD
69.57% 30.43%
3. USD/CHF
67.29% 32.71%
4. USD/CAD
62.57% 37.43%
5. AUD/USD
50.76% 49.24%
6. EUR/USD
49.27% 50.73%
7. GBP/USD
45.78% 54.22%

 

[ctainvestor]

Extreme levels for the day

11:15CET

The levels are based on 1hr charts and are only valid for the day. OB means overbought and OS means oversold. These levels are indication of possible turning points or at least levels where the prevailing trend might be halted, ideal for fast contra-trading. In my twitter page (twitter.com/ctainvestor) I update the levels as we go (as they are dynamics but basically what you see here is more or less what stands for the day unless dramatic moves are seen). Also, if you open an account with investors-europe.com, you can get my technical help there as well.

EUR/USD - extreme OB 1.3243 - extreme OS 1.2947 - we are not far from it
GBP/USD - extreme OB 1.5656 - extreme OS 1.5440
USD/JPY - extreme OB 84.702 - extreme OS 83.625
USD/CHF - extreme OB 1.0089 - extreme OS 0.9904
AUD/USD - extreme OB 0.9733 - extreme OS 0.9490

 

[ctainvestor]

Long/Short ratio at this hour

13:28CET

Nov 30, 2010 13:20 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
76.04% 23.96%
2. XAU/USD
69.23% 30.77%
3. USD/CHF
66.58% 33.42%
4. USD/CAD
62.42% 37.58%
5. AUD/USD
50.22% 49.78%
6. EUR/USD
47.79% 52.21%
7. GBP/USD
45.70% 54.30%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Close. Big volatility to end the month....and more to come.

18:19CET

Well, it's all about selling the EUR to the catacombs these days and today it was no exception. The only difference was that, instead of direct EUR/USD selling, we had EUR selling through the crosses, and particularly (and this is definitely not technically welcome), through a huge EUR/CHF sell-off, from 1.3130 to 1.2930 in just a session, reminding us that this once so-called lethargic pair is the king of volatility at present and a driving force in the markets.

Nothing big to add from the technical point of view, I would repeat the extreme OS status of the single currency, but then you would label me as a broken record and I would not like that. Interesting to see whether the USD/JPY sell-off is a one-day event or a more sustained situation, but anyway in the mid 83's I think it's pretty good to buy the pair. Also, keep a big eye on USD/CHF, as the unit pretends to regain parity, and a move above 1.0020 would mean the break of the short-term resistance line off the recent highs.

Before calling it a day, here's how retail traders are positioning themselves in the market, I still am amazed at EUR and GBP ratios (USD/CHF and USD/JPY are an X-file these weeks, too). I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my bit of space on the internet, supported and presented by www.investors-europe.com.

Nov 30, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
76.38% 23.62%
2. XAU/USD
68.95% 31.05%
3. USD/CHF
67.30% 32.70%
4. USD/CAD
57.24% 42.76%
5. AUD/USD
51.79% 48.21%
6. EUR/USD
48.02% 51.98%
7. GBP/USD
47.64% 52.36%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Open. EUR recovery across the board.

09:33CET

Good morning everyone, hope you are fine. Nice technical EUR recovery across the board, pretty much what I was expecting for yesterday (you know, for Tuesday being a usually USD-selling day, enough of that rule of thumb, anyway...), but glad to see it today. EUR/USD has climbed past 1.3065, and if that level holds, we may have a good follow-through in the pair, perhaps not in size, but in time, where we would see the current savaging of the unit being halted for longer than just one day. EUR/CHF nice bounce and EUR/JPY very good rally have supported the unit as well, with USD/CHF breaking all resistances and making a new high, I wonder for how long as it is creating a new divergence in the 4hr charts, which I'll report when confirmed.

In other arenas, Gold made a push over $1,395, but it was a very brief trip as the unit is now trading around $1,385.I have to say that the possibility of a H&S with a neckline @ $1,340-45 is still completely valid, therefore, and as long as we remian below $1,415, I suggest shorting this unit, as I believe we will see a very sharp correction there.

For today, I?m looking towards good retracements to buy the Europeans vs the USD, and keep an eye on EUR/GBP, as it seems to have found a good base @ 0.8340 and might be just ready to take off.

To conclude this opening post, find below the long/short retail ratio. What definitely surprises me is the change in GBP/USD to over 52% longs, as well as EUR longs rise, precisely when the unit is recovering, so keep that % in mind.

Dec 1, 2010 09:40 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
76.36% 23.64%
2. USD/CHF
69.24% 30.76%
3. XAU/USD
68.10% 31.90%
4. USD/CAD
59.37% 40.63%
5. GBP/USD
52.18% 47.82%
6. AUD/USD
51.60% 48.40%
7. EUR/USD
50.68% 49.32%

 

[ctainvestor]

At the Close. I'll keep it on Gold shorts for now.

18:22CET

It's been a rather dull day in the FX arena, although we've seen some good USD selling across the board that have helped the situation stabilize quite a bit. EUR/USD has printed a 1.3150 high, along with the other majors spiking vs the USD. The only relative surprise has been Cable, who threatened the static 1.5650 support earlier on the day on very good PMI data, but then ran out of steam and it is trading well below the level at the moment.

For my own trading, I have 2 key positions at the moment: long EUR/GBP off sub-0.84 levels and Short Gold from $1,380. I believe these 2 are the best positions to be held for December -on a non-intraday basis, of course-. I believe that we have to wait a little bit to get again good technical levels to trade ourselves into when it comes to the majors, as we are more or less in no man's land at present.

I'm finishing the day with the usual long/short ratio on the retail side, which is very much meaningless at this point, with the 3 important majors hovering around parity, now above, now below it...I'm Tony Juste, thanks for watching my bit of space on the internet, presented by www.investors-europe.com offshore broker. I'll catch up with you again tomorrow. Follow my updates on Twitter if you want real-time tips.

Dec 1, 2010 18:20 GMT+0100

1. USD/JPY
75.41% 24.59%
2. XAU/USD
68.94% 31.06%
3. USD/CHF
68.10% 31.90%
4. USD/CAD
62.66% 37.34%
5. AUD/USD
52.54% 47.46%
6. EUR/USD
50.11% 49.89%
7. GBP/USD
49.84% 50.16%