I'd be looking for a top in this market before long.
We may yet see $50, but analysts always start to ream off ever higher estimates near market tops. If it hits $50, they say $60, and so on.
Remember Dow 40,000? $20 Soybeans?
The OIL market has the potential to stay high, yes, but remember when the market looks most bullish.....
A resolution of the Najaf situation in Iraq could lead to a sharp drop. Once the market realises the IraqI oil wells are not going to be torched after all.
Seasonals point to a top IDEALLY in OCTOBER.
This is a fear-driven market, so I could be way wrong, ofcourse.
We may yet see $50, but analysts always start to ream off ever higher estimates near market tops. If it hits $50, they say $60, and so on.
Remember Dow 40,000? $20 Soybeans?
The OIL market has the potential to stay high, yes, but remember when the market looks most bullish.....
A resolution of the Najaf situation in Iraq could lead to a sharp drop. Once the market realises the IraqI oil wells are not going to be torched after all.
Seasonals point to a top IDEALLY in OCTOBER.
This is a fear-driven market, so I could be way wrong, ofcourse.
kevinburton
Newbie
- Messages
- 6
- Likes
- 0
Bono said:
Im looking for a nice pullback over the next couple of weeks. safer trade is on the short side imo
How can you short this market??? Where would you place stops - I was long after the last pull back now I'm out . . . . same with gold - it's looking weak to me . . .
You always have three options according to Elder - long, short and out - he also reckons most folk could benefit by spending most of their time out waiting for high quality set ups. . . one of his pearls is that trading is one of the few occupations where doing nothing is often rewarded handsomly. .
Only my (or more honestly Elder's) humble - good luck on the sort side -
You always have three options according to Elder - long, short and out - he also reckons most folk could benefit by spending most of their time out waiting for high quality set ups. . . one of his pearls is that trading is one of the few occupations where doing nothing is often rewarded handsomly. .
Only my (or more honestly Elder's) humble - good luck on the sort side -
kevinburton
Newbie
- Messages
- 6
- Likes
- 0
The most important thing is to trade with what you are comfortable doing. So if you are more comfortable staying out of the market then you are quite right, it is by far the best course of action. I shorted last week at an exact 1.618 fib extension. Stop just above. This combined with delta turn point on intra day chart. looking for retrace move now to key fib levels although the bottom is not until around the 9th.
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
The October chart shows a prompt fall from the highs as soon as the price pulled back below the 100ema and it was plainly a short then, but now with the price having pulled back to support in the $45/b region, and hovering just under the 100ema; any breakout north is likely to have the ‘longs’ piling in again for a substantial retracement.
However, the news drives the chart; not vice-versa, and there must still be a lot of fear in the market likely to drive the price up with this kind of news coming in:-
Clearly a news driven market with the price responding to day to day evaluations of the threat to oil supplies.
However, the news drives the chart; not vice-versa, and there must still be a lot of fear in the market likely to drive the price up with this kind of news coming in:-
Clearly a news driven market with the price responding to day to day evaluations of the threat to oil supplies.
Attachments
lightning bolt
Junior member
- Messages
- 20
- Likes
- 1
yeah but that is surely a sign that the cleric in the shrine is backing down and oil should go south nón?
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
I would suspect that Ali al-Sistani is imploring Iraqis to relieve the siege that Muqtada al-Sadr is under in the Najaf shrine, and this will not mean shaking hands with the Americans and the Iraqi puppet forces – it could result in a bloody clash….
At the end of the day, it all hinges on how close the threat gets to the oil wells/pipelines imho……….
ps - just in......Meanwhile, an attack on a pipeline in southern Iraq reminded traders of the continuing risks to oil exports in the nation.
(but there could be good news as well (maybe...!))
At the end of the day, it all hinges on how close the threat gets to the oil wells/pipelines imho……….
ps - just in......Meanwhile, an attack on a pipeline in southern Iraq reminded traders of the continuing risks to oil exports in the nation.
(but there could be good news as well (maybe...!))
Last edited:
tradesmart
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,286
- Likes
- 22
Crude futures closed under $44 a barrel for the first time in over two weeks and gasoline prices fell as much as 6 percent. Prices were pressured by weekly U.S. reports that showed motor fuel stocks didn't fall as expected and easing output concerns in Iraq. "Looks like the realization set in among traders that we have inventories and prices just were not justified at over $45," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. October crude fell $1.74, or 3.8 percent, to close at $43.47 a barrel, its lowest close since August 6. September unleaded gas is down 5.4 percent at $1.1925 a gallon, but that price wasn't quite settled for the day.
Getting very hard to call, but volatility is assured for the foreseeable future imho.........
Getting very hard to call, but volatility is assured for the foreseeable future imho.........
tradesmart said:Crude futures closed under $44 a barrel for the first time in over two weeks and gasoline prices fell as much as 6 percent. Prices were pressured by weekly U.S. reports that showed motor fuel stocks didn't fall as expected and easing output concerns in Iraq. "Looks like the realization set in among traders that we have inventories and prices just were not justified at over $45," said John Person, head analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services. October crude fell $1.74, or 3.8 percent, to close at $43.47 a barrel, its lowest close since August 6. September unleaded gas is down 5.4 percent at $1.1925 a gallon, but that price wasn't quite settled for the day.
Getting very hard to call, but volatility is assured for the foreseeable future imho.........
How the tide can turn, sitting here on friday evening with crude at nearly $50 a barrel, 36 hours later down to $33.5, though i did say it might be risky!!!!!
Keyday reversal on NYMEX today .. I have shorted but with a stop at new highs. It appeals to my contrarian nature as everywhere on all media channels they are saying Oil to 60US by Christmas. Should be good for stock markets over next few weeks, especially Japan. Not saying this is the end of Oil bull run, but just reasonable correction of temporary overbought conditions.
Peter
Peter
The rise and rise in oil prices is structural and here to stay. On the way up there will be setbacks and profit taking (the fleet of foot will make a packet in either direction) but the days of cheap oil are confined to history. The worl oil supply is running out and demand is already exceeding supply, the worst is that production is set to peak next year and from then onwards it will be downhill. I do not expect to see Nymex below $35 again.
Looking out in time, it is most likely that oil will be north of $60 at the turn of the year and the median 2005 price will be $52.
Looking out in time, it is most likely that oil will be north of $60 at the turn of the year and the median 2005 price will be $52.
LION63 said:
Indeed we may be past or near peak oil and in the long run the oil price might be rising substantially, especially if and when the long anticpated demise of USD as global reserve currency will happen. In the short to medium term (say next 2 yrs), nobody knows. Nymex never below $35 is as much as a guess as it being $60 before Xmas.
Much will depend on factors like global economic growth and stability in oil producing nations. Stalling of Chinese economy (not at all unlikely in my view) combined with setbacks in US (also possible) could easily take all the air out of crude prices. Consodering markets tend to over do both towards up and downside, there is no reason to believe that sub $20 crude is a thing of the past. In fact, during 1990 (Gulf war 1) when crude touched $40, people coinsidered $10-11 p barrel an impossibility. Well we all know what happened in late '90's.
In summary, we just don't know! I wouldn't bet the farm on Nymex never going below $30 or above $100! IMHO both prices could very well be touched before this decade is over.
Aptly put bgold. If I were certain of my expectations, I would have re-mortgaged the house. By airing my views, I get responses like yours that only benefit me in the long run.
Surely a fall in the Dollar will send crude soaring or civil war in the Delta region of Nigeria. Conversely a slowdown in India or China would certainly see the froth removed from the market.
Any possibility of Western governments panicking and taking drastic steps?
Surely a fall in the Dollar will send crude soaring or civil war in the Delta region of Nigeria. Conversely a slowdown in India or China would certainly see the froth removed from the market.
Any possibility of Western governments panicking and taking drastic steps?
nice threads! i agree with Dave T though. there's just a lot of panic which is good! just look at the chart of Crude:
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=MEDIUM&b=bar&st=
pretty similar picture we can see in 2003 after the war in Iraq was aover crude declined from 40$ to 27$. what about 1990 the first war in Iraq? here's a monthly chart:
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=MEDIUM&b=bar&st=
reaching 41$ then falling to 18$. i agree that demand is strong but OPEC says there's no shortage in supply.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=&a=W&z=800x550&d=MEDIUM&b=bar&st=
pretty similar picture we can see in 2003 after the war in Iraq was aover crude declined from 40$ to 27$. what about 1990 the first war in Iraq? here's a monthly chart:
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=MEDIUM&b=bar&st=
reaching 41$ then falling to 18$. i agree that demand is strong but OPEC says there's no shortage in supply.
TheBramble
Legendary member
- Messages
- 8,394
- Likes
- 1,170
Falklands 60bn Barrels
MoneyMorning weekly email update this morning mentions the 60bn Barrels of oil sitting under the Falkland Islands, making it the 10th largest potential oil resource in the world.
It's unlikely (?) to have any immediate impact on current oil prices, but it's certainly news to me.
Anyone with any experience in the Oil industry know how long it would take to get that sort of operation on-stream and producing?
MoneyMorning weekly email update this morning mentions the 60bn Barrels of oil sitting under the Falkland Islands, making it the 10th largest potential oil resource in the world.
It's unlikely (?) to have any immediate impact on current oil prices, but it's certainly news to me.
Anyone with any experience in the Oil industry know how long it would take to get that sort of operation on-stream and producing?
The Bramble:
i don't have any experience in oil markets, the only thing i certainly know is that commercials come and then do what they want, for us (small guys) it's the best to play their game with their rules, look at Orange Juice or Copper, sometimes ti doesn't take a lot of time sometimes it takes more, but the big guys usually have all the figures , and the news you just brought give me more confidence about the OPEC's sttament that there's no shortage in OIl
