CRB Index - next stop 1980 highs?

[DaveT]

The CRB Index - the weighted index of a broad basket of commodities, and barometer of the sector - has broken ABOVE 300, taking to to it's highest level since 1981.

This reflects the persistant strength in Energies, Metals, Softs and now Grains adding to the bullishness.

The 1980 all-time highs of just under 340 look to be the next major monthly resistance. That 1980 high marked the blow-off top in Gold and Silver, ofcourse. We have many similarities to back then :

1) Inflation concerns (not hyper-inflation yet - but it's there)

2) Weak Dollar

3) Middle-east tensions - with IRAN moving into the spotlight - as in 1979?

4) An era of droughts, and other weather-related calamities.


The ADDED FACTOR this time around is INCREASED WORLD DEMAND (esp. China). Because of this I believe we are witnessing a paradigm shift in Commodity cycles, IMO.

Here is the Monthly CRB (pdf) :

 

[..]

The CRB has gained in the last few years and some have asked whether it is approaching a peak - here is a good perspective - to save time Ive just pasted the link - but see how in inflation adjusted terms where we are! :!:
http://www.zealllc.com/2004/realcrb.htm

 

[tpk007]

The CRB has gained in the last few years and some have asked whether it is approaching a peak - here is a good perspective - to save time Ive just pasted the link - but see how in inflation adjusted terms where we are! :!:
http://www.zealllc.com/2004/realcrb.htm

Looks like the peak may be in, two down days last week and a big 400 point move down as I type. Any ideas as to where resistance will kick in and stop the slide ?

Much obliged.

 

[tpk007]

Looks like the peak may be in, two down days last week and a big 400 point move down as I type. Any ideas as to where resistance will kick in and stop the slide ?

Much obliged.

Try again.

The CRB Index continues down. Will the CRB continue to drop ? The precious metals complex didn't track the recent rises, yet the drop in gold & silver could be the precusor to further falls in the CRB.

Any thoughts ?