NVP
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Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies
NVP
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mornin all.......
Dow still drifting south but momentum is slowing........a few buys on USD and Yen still
will be away from screens again all today ....but naturally it wont stop me posting elsewhere.....
looks like the silly season out there in junk mail land as we all receive the latest no lose systems.............
remember when Trends in the Markets form the junk selling increases........
why ?...because they are all selling trend based systems and they can hook you in with news of their recent wins
Later all
N
Dow still drifting south but momentum is slowing........a few buys on USD and Yen still
will be away from screens again all today ....but naturally it wont stop me posting elsewhere.....
looks like the silly season out there in junk mail land as we all receive the latest no lose systems.............
remember when Trends in the Markets form the junk selling increases........
why ?...because they are all selling trend based systems and they can hook you in with news of their recent wins
Later all
N
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NVP
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so if you are going to spend your money on something
1) ask about the vendor at T2W first
2) Ask the vendor 100,000 questions and until the cows come home
3) keep demanding a lower Fee before buying
4) PLEASE try to keep it costs in the low hundreds
and good luck to you.......its all part of learning the Game
N
1) ask about the vendor at T2W first
2) Ask the vendor 100,000 questions and until the cows come home
3) keep demanding a lower Fee before buying
4) PLEASE try to keep it costs in the low hundreds
and good luck to you.......its all part of learning the Game
N
Purple Brain
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I've just taken a long audusd based on your excellent correlator, admittedly with a few confirmation criteria of my own. It's an excellent facilitator in visually indicating what's what. I like it a lot.
I also need to apologise for jumping the gun on the current hour candle in not waiting for it to close. Against the rules I know.
Jedster2001
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Hi PB,
I am curious, which timeframe are you looking at, and what sort of stop/target do you have?
I ask because, the strengthmeter isn't showing me strength in the AUD, nor particular weakness in the USD. If anything, it is showing the opposite (and this is why the timeframe is particularly relevant). So if I was trading AUDUSD at the moment, I would be selling it...
J
NVP
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Hey PB
its entirely up to you how you trade the system.......... I can and will happily enter a trade if I see a big move during a bar ...........and I either get an early bonus or get hammered on the chop
Jedter shoots me for this ............hey , what can i say .......I am a very undiscplined trader 😉
If in doubt however you do need to wait for a confirming closing bar signal on this approach ...........intra-bar activity means nothing....its noise
there are ways to get a closing bar confirmation....just drop down a TF and reset the MA accordingly to match the Higher TF ..........but thats another story .........(ie a 20ma on a 1hr TF is a 80ma on a 15m TF)
N :smart:
Purple Brain
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Jedster – I use 15 minute charts and I have NVP’s correlator also on a 15 minute setting, but with a 20 period and an 80 period (which is almost equivalent to a 20 period on an hourly chart). When the Dow is above both moving averages (or below both) I take that as a setup, or not, as I jumped the gun this morning. When I took the trade I saw both usd and jpy below the zero line and aud just above the zero line and the only currency above the zero line and rising at that time. On a technical basis, that was correct and if you look back to 08:00 on the 15 minute chart that was exactly what was happening. The problem was I didn’t wait for the Dow to confirm a close above the 20 period moving average on the hourly bar - and it never did close above it. usd and jpy both headed up back over the zero line almost the moment I placed the trade. I got in at 0236 with a stop at 0211 and a first target level of 0268. And this is the weird bit, in spite of the screw up and not waiting for the close to confirm on the hourly and all my current audusd criteria being bearish, I’m STILL in that long audusd trade. I know I should pull it and I’ve had a number of chances to do so and even take a few pips profit (which I don’t deserve) and worst case so far, just a 14 pip loss on an original risk of 25 pips. But I’m just sitting here looking at in the full knowledge that the probabilities are it’ll take my full risk off me. That’s not good is it.
Purple Brain
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What an idiot I am. Simply putting an 80 period moving average on the Dow on a 15 minute chart might make it almost equivalent to a 20 period moving average on a 1 hour chart, but it doesn't have any relevance as the significant other part of the puzzle is the various strengths of the individual currencies. NVP specifically says use a 1 hour chart and I've committed the cardinal sin of imagining I can pick and choose which bits I want to use as directed and which bits I can extemporaneously alter. On the correct setting, no such signal has been given for a long audusd.
NVP - thanks for your suggestion that I can trade it any way I want, but that completely negates all your efforts in designing the correalator which included the optimum period for its settings. I won't make that mistake again.
Closing long audusd at 0254 for a totally undeserved +18 pips on a trade I should never have taken in the first place and even more stupidly, just sat in it and watched for over 2 hours knowing I should not have been in and that the sensible thing was to get out immediately. I won't make that mistake again either.
NVP - thanks for your suggestion that I can trade it any way I want, but that completely negates all your efforts in designing the correalator which included the optimum period for its settings. I won't make that mistake again.
Closing long audusd at 0254 for a totally undeserved +18 pips on a trade I should never have taken in the first place and even more stupidly, just sat in it and watched for over 2 hours knowing I should not have been in and that the sensible thing was to get out immediately. I won't make that mistake again either.
Jedster2001
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Hi PB,
Why don't you post a couple of charts when you take a trade next time. That way, if the market changes, you can look back at the screen shots and determine if you were right or wrong to take the trade.
Plus, if you know your trades are likely to be under a little scrutiny (by posting them on a public forum like this), you are more likely to really make sure the trade is a good one, according to what ever rules you are following...
J
Cheers
J
Purple Brain
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Pushing the envelope of my technological capabilities, but I get your point. This morning's debacle was primarily due to my taking a trade based on an open rather than closed bar. There were a number of other factors, such as a short between the ears and preeminent stupidity. I can go back to my live chart to hat time point (08:00) and see what I saw there when I took the trade with the currency strengths still twitching on the currently open bar. Just one (maybe two) bars later I saw my error, so posting the charts here would not have helped identify retrospectively the stupid mistake I made I'm afraid.
As for peer pressure by posting, I get that calling a live trade anyway and it's not exactly pressure as I've got no ego invested in any trade. No ego at all today after the calls I've made.
NVP
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no worries ............post whenever you want and join the gang here .....this is a pretty friendly thread and if anything I welcome even more posts , charts and comments as the many lurkers watching are very happy to learn and observe
N
NVP
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closing out an 18 pip profit is a mistake ?.......Jees I cant wait for you to start being right then.....you'll clean up !! 😎
N
Jedster2001
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be-positive
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NVP
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Mornin all......
well the heat came out of the Dow around the 14,750 level yesterday morning....... and the right hand 15m TF shows a superb run then buying USD and Yen into most currencies up to lunchtime
(except GBP that gracefully accepted the gimme from the ECB)
thats a GMT-1 chart by the way..so all bars are 1 hr earlier than GMT
Overnight the Dow is back on the upswing so we have had nice SELL's into the USD and YEN................
again watch the highs on this DOW attack around the 14,700's and see if resistance holds the fort ...
later
N
Jedster - I will try to take a look later at your latest stuff........sorry dude....... we are both busy as usual
well the heat came out of the Dow around the 14,750 level yesterday morning....... and the right hand 15m TF shows a superb run then buying USD and Yen into most currencies up to lunchtime
(except GBP that gracefully accepted the gimme from the ECB)
thats a GMT-1 chart by the way..so all bars are 1 hr earlier than GMT
Overnight the Dow is back on the upswing so we have had nice SELL's into the USD and YEN................
again watch the highs on this DOW attack around the 14,700's and see if resistance holds the fort ...
later
N
Jedster - I will try to take a look later at your latest stuff........sorry dude....... we are both busy as usual
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NVP
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Someone asked me yesterday for some advice as to how to learn and become successful
in trading....
well first of all I am not necessarily the one to ask as I am not a "millionaire" Trader by any means and have never walked the pits or any other caveman qualifications needed to give such advice .....
But if I was giving advice the first rule is this.....
Ready ?
in trading....
well first of all I am not necessarily the one to ask as I am not a "millionaire" Trader by any means and have never walked the pits or any other caveman qualifications needed to give such advice .....
But if I was giving advice the first rule is this.....
Ready ?
