Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

hey all

heres the action...again a little choppy for me ...and we need more of a move on the Dow ....

N

 

[NVP]

hey gang ....work stopped me trading/posting today ....sorry !

Ok I am travelling tomorrow and thursday - so will not be online - will log in when I can towards end of the week

Best Regards
N

 

[NVP]

hey all

I am on vacation till this sunday.........chilling out !

I see that the Dow is still under pressure on the dailies

and that yen is taking major hits sadly ......usd is strong enough to buy still if you want to ignore the yen......or even buy U/J ?

later
N

 

[NVP]

remember I discussed using a 4 hr TF on a 20/3 setting for bias trading ?

heres your rankings for trading 1hr and 15m TF

yen is a sell against everything and the Turquoise NZD is the buy against all .....

the rest are as seen inbetween so trade on the rankings / strength shown only

N

 

[NVP]

hey all !

still on vacation this week.......well in fact i'm not quite

i'm trying to buy a package of repo properties in the canaries from the local banks with a small consortium of partners here.....

dealing with the banks is rediculous ......they repo people out of the properties - but then do not have a department to sell them again (?)....and they pay zero commission on sales so the local agents wont help or step in as negociators ..........a shame as many of them i know well and could make this work

we have offered 60 cents on the Euro on a decent portfolio of reasonable properties but i sense no deal coming.......their loss not mine .............at 5-6% interest minimium chargable on their mortgage business they have zero buisiness coming in from customers so time is on our side

remember as in trading .........always let the market come to you ....there is never a need to rush

later
N

 

[NVP]

remember I discussed using a 4 hr TF on a 20/3 setting for bias trading ?

heres your rankings for trading 1hr and 15m TF

yen is a sell against everything and the Turquoise NZD is the buy against all .....

the rest are as seen inbetween so trade on the rankings / strength shown only

N

I see my observation above was pretty accurate this week so far .....I said that the 20/3 setting on a 4hr helps to steer your lower TF trades (regardless of system)

and it said to stay selling yen ....right ?

and it still is .......heres the week

as Dow climbs we see the yen in the doghouse below the zero all week and the usd weak as well..........

stay on this path until conditions change:smart:

back at the weekend..with or without some repo properties
N

 

[NVP]

morning all.......

Well i'm back in sunny england ..........Jesus the landing last night was very very hairy ...up there with some of my worst .......thanks for the high wind and rain reception all .....

for anyone interested i've posted my update on the Q4 Poll / results thread ......my tip of the Yen is having a worse time than any Football manager who gets a call asking "is Harry around ?"

right lets have a quick look at the markets
N

 

[NVP]

heres the Daily as its good to look at the bigger picture

Well the Dow has rallied 4-500 points off the last week or so.....so we all know what that means

right ?

Dow up = Yen and USD down

and boyoboyoboy did the Yen fall ......some great trades out there for followers of the FXcorrelator system and I hope you enjoyed the PIPfest !

Selling the USD was also pretty profitable with the Euro of all currencies providing the buys

the currency markets never fail to amaze me .....so all I ever do is trade what I see and not what I think s/be happening ........its never that predictable

what next ?

Well personally I was expecting a flat / Bearish Dow into December as the Fiscal cliff effect hit the markets (US consumers tightening belts and expecting the worse) and we may still see that as the Thanksgiving retail figures unfold ......there should also be a bounce off the 13,000 Reisitance level I think sending Dow south again

N:smart:

 

[NVP]

Re: 1 simple trading rule !!!

1 simple rule to trade.........?

hey all ..........a lot of people ask me for 1 simple rule to trade with

1 simple rule ????.....

ok here it is below

load the FXcorrelator
use the 20ma setting DELTA 3
put it on the 4Hr TF

now follow these rules.........

only trade in the direction of the order of the currencies strongest to weakest

eh ?

in other words if 1 currency is STRONGER (above) another currency you can only trade the stronger currency as a buy against the weaker one on lower TF's if you get a signal ....

and vice versa if 1 currency is WEAKER (below) another currency you can only trade the Weaker currency as a SELL against the Stronger one on lower TF's if you get a signal ....

heres an example on the current 4 Hr Chart

so in order of strongest to weakest

YEN
USD
AUD
CHF
CAD
EUR
NZD
GBP

in this example you can ONLY buy the yen against anything on lower TF signals and you can ONLY sell the GBP against anything on lower TF signals

and as an inbetweener ...the CHF can ONLY be sold against any of the higher Currencies to its position (YEN/USD/AUD) but ONLY be bought against any of the lower currencies to its position (CAD/EUR/NZD/GBP)

as the positions change on the 4hr chart the rules change ......

thats it !!!
N

hey all

remember this post .....I later updated it to show a Delta 3 setting (so 20ma Delta 3)

well heres whats happening

remember even if you dont follow my trading systems just use this as a rating / guide to what currencies to trade against each other on lower TF's

only ever buy a currency that is higher than another one on the chart
only ever Sell a currency that is Lower than another one on the chart

simple !

so you can see that the Yen is a sell against everything until further notice and the Euro is the big buy

just check the currency pair you want to trade on 15m or 1hr always against this
4hr setting to ensure you are going with the bigger trends !

and by the way ...the E/J buy from mid Nov has moved about 6% increase alone !
(600 pips)

N:smart:

 

[NVP]

mornin all......

ok the dow futures finally held overnight and bounced south a little

(as I was mentioning yesterday in last paragraph)
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...-basic-ideas-strategies-1283.html#post2021164

We see the Yen (and USD) finally responding a little north

lets see if this can continue today .....I have a lot of work to do to get Team Yen to the winning post of my Q4 poll competition !

later ....gonna be stupidly busy at work so no trading today unfortunately
N

 

[NVP]

hey all

still slow action but I am lovin the Yen breaks north ......the yen is especially looking good for some buys today if the Dow continues to slowly fade

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

if you are of a nervous disposition you could follow the rules of My 20ma delta 3 on a 4hr and only trade the lower TF's respecting the order of the currencies (and not before :|!)

so at the moment the yen is still south and you could now only still sell the USD against it (as its now lower than yen line) and ther Cad is about to become a Sell bias as sell vs Yen

all other currencies still show buy's against the Yen until they get crossed

your money your choice ! :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

Got a chance to read "Liars poker" again during my vacation

jees those mortgage desk guys rocked .........what a place and what a time !

best story is still when a trader set light to his colleagues trousers during a heated argument on bond pricing

priceless

N

 

[nelsonhimes]

Thanks for sharing such a informative post herewith us. Looking forward to more from you

 

[jusiur]

and if you are More of a 1hr and 4hr trader then use the DAILY TF on same principle....

the 20ma is good because it generally represents a rolling month of data

heres the Daily .....look at the Yens strength over the last few days and how you would now not buy against it on anything !

N

N, I am interested in Daily TF as a main chart and 4H for signals (because my job). From your perspective what delta you suggest?

 

[NVP]

N, I am interested in Daily TF as a main chart and 4H for signals (because my job). From your perspective what delta you suggest?

Hi J

ok use a 20ma delta 3 on the Daily for bias......and for trigger signals use the 4hr TF on a 20/1

This is possibly still a little close regarding Longterm vs signal..... so i would also recommend you experiment on the 4hr TF with faster ma speeds (between 8 and say 13) to widen the TF bias vs Trigger gap.....and reset the Dow as well to this setting on the 4hr

heres a set-up

left chart is daily on a 20/3 to show order of currencies to trade
right chart is a faster 13/1 setting (Dow as well) ....4hr

use the left chart to organise your trades (only buy stonger currencies vs a lower weaker currencies)
and the right as a standard System signal.....
(DOW above MA - Yen & USD below zero = trade and vice versa)

so at the moment we see a very weak Yen and USD still on the left and we hunt sells on USD and Yen on the right chart.........but ONLY when the right chart sees the Dow above its 13/1 ma and the yen and USD BELOW the zero - then we can buy currencies against them ....

you can see recently has been a great period of selling USD and Yen - especially against the Euro !

its up to everyone to find their own path :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

Mornin all..........

Well here we are

on the left is the 4Hr 20ma delta 3 bias setting showing the currency order to trade

on the right is a 15m chart on a 20/1 setting (normal)

overnights it was flat ........my attachment shows my strategy and I will follow the left chart bias chasing yen and USD sells still until further notice

We are hunting Dow rises back up towards the 13,000 and when the yen and USD plunge below the Zero on the 15m TF chart (right)

Plus review any economic news today

good hunting !
N

 

[NVP]

and if you are just trading what you see regardless of higher Bias that Dow breach looks interesting

if it holds then some extended buying on Yen and USD is probable ..you may get a little retracing first though as Euro looks oversold ....


N :smart:

 

[NVP]

or is it the setup for a perfect bounce trade on the dow ?.......

haha - welcome to trading !

later all ........gotta scoot
N

 

[NVP]

seems like Dow may be still coming south

I cannot see Euro holding this speed .......Sell G/U & G/J

or perhaps a gap play ? Buy E/G ?

N