@Stealth: read NVP's public bio from his profile, if you have not already done so.
@NVP or anyone: regarding the Dow, or not: Like NVP, I'm not a backtesting type, and I sometimes regret it. I decided not to even think about it when I stopped being an essentially technical trader, some time a bit over a year or so ago.
Having got back (in a very roundabout way) to the idea of strength & correlation trading, including strength-meters, you could well argue that this is a technical form of trading, and I wouldn't disagree, or not much. But while I would say I no longer trade on pure fundamentals/"fuzzymentals" (too much prediction involved), neither would I ever trade on blind technicals either (even strength/correlation-based). I'd prefer to think in terms of trading (Forex) using strength and correlation as a very powerful tool, but in the background of as much fundamental knowledge as I can sensibly collate, given the time available, in the timescales I choose to trade (so sometimes, not much time....).
Neil's thread has received many views, but not as much active participation as it deserved, which is a pity. NVP has been ploughing a fairly lonely furrow, with a lot of drive and persistence. I hope that one day, people will look back and see him as a kind of trailblazer, at least within the UK. Perhaps some day, everyone will be trading Forex (and maybe other things) like this. Get your edge here while there still is one! 🙂
Going back to the Dow (I forgot the point I was trying to make....concentration needed Monty!), I believe there have been periods when the Dow negatively correlated with the USD and other periods when it didn't. Casual googling seems to bear this out. A more systematic analysis (of the back-testing variety) should give more evidence, either way. I certainly would not try to discourage anyone from following the standard method that NVP teaches here. But what I would say generally is to be aware that market conditions can change over time. I mean in a general, macro sense, not just hour to hour, and day to day. Eyeball the longer-term charts once in a while to get a general sense of things.
(But if any stats experts care to post with precise Dow/Stock Market-versus-USD correlation numbers over extended periods of time, then I for one will be interested!)