Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies
Kruspe_Svk
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montmorencyt2w
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I'm not 100% sure what Neil means by his touchdown line, but I'd say yes, it was in overbought territory, and you could have expected it to come down. It did a bit, but not that much (that I could see).
However, the $ recovered and faded and recovered at least a couple of times, and that should have provided a quick sell EUR/USD opportunity (but you might have wanted to check on your price chart as well). I think similar for EUR/JPY.
Also at least one opportunity to sell Euro against the pound, i.e. sell EUR/GBP (though that's not a favourite of mine these days). Depends on your time-frames, but if you were happy to dive in and be prepared to get out, there should have been opportunities.
Neil: Do the times on your MT4 platform match UK times? (Mine are an hour out! It's easy to forget sometimes). Don't know why as it's supposed to be a UK firm (SLM).
(Loads and looks at 5M price chart ......Note that times shown are GMT+1, i.e. 17:00 on the chart = 16:00 GMT)
hm....well, that doesn't support very strongly what I've just said I think as it looks like you should have been buying but not doing much selling.
Hm...looks like there should have been at least 90 pips on offer for buyers, even fairly conservative ones (wish I had been among them!). Well, let's say 60 to be ultra-conservative. I'd be quite happy with that.
True you could have had one quick sell for about 30 pips if you were lucky, but after that, it all gets a bit dubious, and I think I would have stayed out. We're now in the graveyard shift and I wouldn't be trading anyway.
And tomorrow is another day.
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NVP
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hey K
Those horizontals on the 5min corrie (+/- 0.000035 setting) indicate relatively overbought/sold positions on the offending currency
I would only personally use it as an alert to tighten stops and be dubious of signals indicating pushes deeper / beyond those levels as you are up in the 95% percentiles there re overextension/ Tails........sure there is possibly more in the tank but why risk it ?
conversely if the corrie signals are lining up and the currency is nicely bouncing back from the touchdown area with price action (HH/HL or LL/LH) then thats nice as well...............as the overbought Euro has now proved in last few hours (see below )👍
dont get to hung up on it though :smart:
N
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NVP
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my charts are GMT currently......:smart:
NVP
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hey all
I see the Euro is still trundling down nicely ......and the falling dow is (just about) keeping the 80ma and 20ma on the tag team above the zero on the 5mins.....
a little Aud and NZD in the sell mix as well but its nearly their sleepy time to be honest
GBP as volatile as ever so earlier opps to sell the g/U and take some targets NOT hanging around
keep going Euro .....👍
N
I see the Euro is still trundling down nicely ......and the falling dow is (just about) keeping the 80ma and 20ma on the tag team above the zero on the 5mins.....
a little Aud and NZD in the sell mix as well but its nearly their sleepy time to be honest
GBP as volatile as ever so earlier opps to sell the g/U and take some targets NOT hanging around
keep going Euro .....👍
N
NVP
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ive just got a blackberry torch (excuse is to monitor and take trades on the move)
in my younger days working for an American Company in Manhattan, I had to live with one attached to my hip
jees their sure slicker now .........
No idea whats going on at the moment but its shiny and pretty !!
N
in my younger days working for an American Company in Manhattan, I had to live with one attached to my hip
jees their sure slicker now .........
No idea whats going on at the moment but its shiny and pretty !!
N
NVP
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lunchtime review ........
hmmm BOE holds the int rates eh ?.....lets see what the market thinks of that
no...not the immediate current moves but the next few days when it all sinks in
meanwhile heres the mornings activities
based on a 20ma and 80ma on a 5min supported by a dow30 chart with same (s)Ma's
with consistent pressure on Dow falls (and its still trying) the system looks for tag buys and they were delivered around 11am gmt (arrow)....well technically not so as the Dow popped back above the 20ma
lets ignore that .....(right ?)....
So lets pick the correct G6 currency to SELL....theres plenty already in play below the zero Euro ,CHF,AUD so pick the weakest ......right ? , right?
well a little bit of pippage on those 3 sells and then they all came back and bit you 😡
So how the hell does this system work NVP 😱
Read the Thread from start to finish and also the rules of combat below in the signature (and this link)
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...g-basic-ideas-strategies-636.html#post1373432
that ensures you are most likely to make money ..........:smart:
so do you see what went wrong with that 11am signal ? 🙄
do you see how the next signal (red arrow) was 100000% better
outcome as a result ? :whistling
when you do know tell me as I hav'nt got a clue 😆
N
hmmm BOE holds the int rates eh ?.....lets see what the market thinks of that
no...not the immediate current moves but the next few days when it all sinks in
meanwhile heres the mornings activities
based on a 20ma and 80ma on a 5min supported by a dow30 chart with same (s)Ma's
with consistent pressure on Dow falls (and its still trying) the system looks for tag buys and they were delivered around 11am gmt (arrow)....well technically not so as the Dow popped back above the 20ma
lets ignore that .....(right ?)....
So lets pick the correct G6 currency to SELL....theres plenty already in play below the zero Euro ,CHF,AUD so pick the weakest ......right ? , right?
well a little bit of pippage on those 3 sells and then they all came back and bit you 😡
So how the hell does this system work NVP 😱
Read the Thread from start to finish and also the rules of combat below in the signature (and this link)
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...g-basic-ideas-strategies-636.html#post1373432
that ensures you are most likely to make money ..........:smart:
so do you see what went wrong with that 11am signal ? 🙄
do you see how the next signal (red arrow) was 100000% better
outcome as a result ? :whistling
when you do know tell me as I hav'nt got a clue 😆
N
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montmorencyt2w
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The "torch" bit sounds intriguing. Is that for when the lights fuse? (hopefully it has a fold-out tool kit as well). Although I'm a luddite in these matters, my son has convinced me that Blackberries are A Very Good Thing. My daughter on the other hand used to work for a bunch of overpaid, self-important media types who seemed to be welded to their Blackberries, and for whom she coined the name "Crackberries".
montmorencyt2w
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Was late on watch as usual today, so missed the best trades so far. I'll post price charts of €/$, £/$, and also €/£, as there was a bit of an opportunity there today. Times on charts are GMT+1. Times in [square brackets] are GMT in the text.
1. EUR/USD - with hindsight, and if you were prepared to trade overnight, that looks like a pretty obvious SELL doesn't it. Still worth getting in a bit later, but by 10;15[09:15] it was already starting to get messy, and (IMHO) didn't improve much.
2. GBP/USD At least the move here started at a more civilised hour for UK-ers, and was going well until about 10:15[09:15] when it goes a bit choppy. You could probably have done things if you'd been nimble, but perhaps a bit risky.
3. EUR/GBP Now that's a much smoother ride down, although even if you'd got the whole move (to date), I think it's only about 40 pips, so not quite as good as it looks, but I wouldn't turn it down.
EDIT: I probably said "much smoother", because I only looked at this chart in hindsight, so I kind of excused the spike above the slower MA as though it was certain to come down again. That's the problem with hindsight trading. If you had been trading this in real time, that part anyway would not have looked smooth!
IF you had stayed in, true would would have got, probably an extra 18 pips. But if you'd got out, you might have re-entered, but I'm not sure the strength readings at that point were supportive.
When I took those snapshots, I didn't think EUR/USD had any further down to go, as it seemed to be consolidating, but it has edged a bit further. The situation now seems rather unclear. I think we may just bump along for a bit until some catalyst comes along.
EDIT2: oops, looking again at the live EUR/GBP chart, I see that the rate of fall increased, and it's looking like it was a good short. ...looking on EUR/USD ....no not the same there ... looking at strength ...!!! GBP has gone stratospheric! Did someone walk over Mervyn's grave ... ???
1. EUR/USD - with hindsight, and if you were prepared to trade overnight, that looks like a pretty obvious SELL doesn't it. Still worth getting in a bit later, but by 10;15[09:15] it was already starting to get messy, and (IMHO) didn't improve much.
2. GBP/USD At least the move here started at a more civilised hour for UK-ers, and was going well until about 10:15[09:15] when it goes a bit choppy. You could probably have done things if you'd been nimble, but perhaps a bit risky.
3. EUR/GBP Now that's a much smoother ride down, although even if you'd got the whole move (to date), I think it's only about 40 pips, so not quite as good as it looks, but I wouldn't turn it down.
EDIT: I probably said "much smoother", because I only looked at this chart in hindsight, so I kind of excused the spike above the slower MA as though it was certain to come down again. That's the problem with hindsight trading. If you had been trading this in real time, that part anyway would not have looked smooth!
IF you had stayed in, true would would have got, probably an extra 18 pips. But if you'd got out, you might have re-entered, but I'm not sure the strength readings at that point were supportive.
When I took those snapshots, I didn't think EUR/USD had any further down to go, as it seemed to be consolidating, but it has edged a bit further. The situation now seems rather unclear. I think we may just bump along for a bit until some catalyst comes along.
EDIT2: oops, looking again at the live EUR/GBP chart, I see that the rate of fall increased, and it's looking like it was a good short. ...looking on EUR/USD ....no not the same there ... looking at strength ...!!! GBP has gone stratospheric! Did someone walk over Mervyn's grave ... ???
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