Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

Ok, no prob. I'll check what you said and check it out more intensely. No worries about the training, I was looking at this as being complementary. I got a small arsenal of things that work for me.

Again, I appreciate your commitment to this site and thread!

Cheers!

Dan

Hey Dan

even in my VIP training last year I did offer a few bespoke systems as part of the course but a lot of it was really designed to get traders to think and use Strengthmeters & correlation in certain ways and to then develop their own patterns / signals and methodologies from it ....its a truly amazing tool and very very underated......especially in forex.....in truth most attendees were seeking the Holy Grail which was a shame as no one can promise that :whistling

good luck and good trading :smart:
N
kop
 
mornin all.......

ok the Dow continues to rollercoaster up and down and you can see that the recent Reistance level from sunday night is holding.......sometimes I really should focus morre on trading the DJ instead of Currencies ;) (but thats another story)

only the Yen is responding with any Tradable (inverse) relationship to the Dow and the USD is wandering where it will (US holiday didnt help).......as in the last few weeks the yen really is the more predictable currency to trade so Today I would urge you to appreciate that....

look for E/J trades and go when E and J are in opposite camps around the Zero and whenthe Dow is moving the opposite direction to the Yen (or indeed with the Euro)...at these times if the USD is sadly in the euro camp at least it will add a damn good kicker anyway to the E/J trade

later
N
 

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January 21, 2013 6:27 pm FT.COM

Weidmann warns of currency war risk
By Michael Steen in Frankfurt

The erosion of central bank independence around the world threatens to unleash a round of competitive exchange rate devaluations, which leading economies have so far avoided during the financial crisis, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank warned on Monday.

Jens Weidmann, whose institution’s own fierce independence from political influence was the model for the European Central Bank when it was founded, said Stephen King, the chief economist at HSBC, was “perhaps right” in forecasting an end to the era of central bank independence.

“It is already possible to observe alarming infringements, for example in Hungary or in Japan, where the new government is massively involving itself in the affairs of the central bank, is emphatically demanding an even more aggressive monetary policy and is threatening an end to central bank autonomy,” Mr Weidmann said in a speech in Frankfurt.

“Whether intended or not, one consequence could be the increased politicisation of the exchange rate,” he said, according to a text of his speech provided by the Bundesbank. “Until now the international monetary system got through the crisis without competitive devaluations and I hope very much it stays that way.”

Both the Bundesbank and later the ECB were founded on mandates that gave them wide powers and freedom from political interference in return for focusing solely on keeping inflation in check. Some observers argue that the ECB now faces a challenge if other central banks ditch their own inflation targets and act to lower exchange rates against the euro, making exports from the embattled eurozone economies less competitive.

Asked about the trend for central banks to look less at inflation-targeting and more at policy areas that affect exchange rates, Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, said earlier this month that the exchange rate was very important “as far as growth and stability” were concerned but was not a policy target for the ECB.
He also noted that the Group of 20 leading industrial nations had pledged not to undertake competitive currency devaluations as such action undermines economic and financial stability.

Mr Weidmann said the period in the 1980s and 1990s during which central banks around the world had been made independent had heralded a period of “great moderation” during which inflation fell. But the outbreak of the financial crisis and the growing energy and raw materials demand from fast-growing economies had put rising prices back on the agenda and complicated the job of a central bank.

This had led to demands on central banks to support the financial system, stimulate the economy and lower government refinancing costs “or even secure the solvency of a state”, he said. “Overloading central banks with tasks and expectations is however certainly not the correct path towards sustainably overcoming the crisis.”
The Bundesbank chief, whose concerns about straying from orthodox monetary policy prompted him to vote against and campaign openly against Mr Draghi’s unlimited bond-buying plan last year, concluded by quoting approvingly from an interview Mr Draghi gave to the Financial Times in December. Central banks could best defend their independence by narrowly interpreting their mandate, he said.

asked for his opinion on these potential implications NVP commented "Bring it on bang the Gong" in a poorly orchestrated impression of Marc Bolan

N
 
hey all .............still issues with accessing my trading screens from work .......please please post Screens or comment today here as I cannot until later tonight

N
 
:idea: took advantage of JPY strength on the 15M time frame and sold EURJPY and GBYJPY for a good scalp.
 

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I have spent more than quite a bit of time studying Basket Trading. My advice? Don't bother.

Here is a quote which I have just read on another forum on BT:

"What about maybe implementing some kind of partial % closure within the Jump EA that monitors all magic no 103's. Say with mptm setting the intial 18sl 100tp and then the jump doing its thing with the trailing stop + whenever say 30pips is hit (or whatever you define) 50% of the position is closed letting the rest run with the Jump EA.

Trying to catch best of both worlds I guess."

WTF?

All I can say is, "You're a better man than me, Gunga Din."

As for the debate about GMT +, GMT - , Daily Openings in different regions... Pivots under , Opening, Daily, Weekly, Jump down, turn around, ... buy a Sell if it has gone down the ladder (or is it up the ladder?) arghhhh!

Life is too short, chaps. So don't waste it on this ********. Excuse my French.

Just follow The Maestro, NVP, and his FX Correlator for an ulcer-free, simple, rational analysis and a good RESULT!

Trade canny,

Hamish.
 
I have spent more than quite a bit of time studying Basket Trading. My advice? Don't bother.

Here is a quote which I have just read on another forum on BT:

"What about maybe implementing some kind of partial % closure within the Jump EA that monitors all magic no 103's. Say with mptm setting the intial 18sl 100tp and then the jump doing its thing with the trailing stop + whenever say 30pips is hit (or whatever you define) 50% of the position is closed letting the rest run with the Jump EA.

Trying to catch best of both worlds I guess."

WTF?

All I can say is, "You're a better man than me, Gunga Din."

As for the debate about GMT +, GMT - , Daily Openings in different regions... Pivots under , Opening, Daily, Weekly, Jump down, turn around, ... buy a Sell if it has gone down the ladder (or is it up the ladder?) arghhhh!

Life is too short, chaps. So don't waste it on this ********. Excuse my French.

Just follow The Maestro, NVP, and his FX Correlator for an ulcer-free, simple, rational analysis and a good RESULT!

Trade canny,

Hamish.

thanks H - cheque is in the post :p

seriously ?..........I have systems so compex I have made grown programmers cry .......but in truth the more complex you go the more problem are caused....anyone who designs trading systems will understand and sympathise with this

so keep it simple :-

Focus on getting a >50% win rate if possible

but focus more on optimising the profitability of those wins (Exit strategy)

and make sure those loss3s get cut short fast .......(Exit strategy)

thats it.......simpler the better .....

N
 
heres today ..........pre lunch session was superb buying the yen (as H found out) selling GBP and Euro .... after lunch correlation patterns were weaker and non existent .....such is life

and Dow still coming North eh ? :sneaky:

N
 

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I am struggling to get access from work still and missing some profitable trades .....more luck tomorrow hopefully having rebooted everything

N
 
I have spent more than quite a bit of time studying Basket Trading. My advice? Don't bother.

Here is a quote which I have just read on another forum on BT:

"What about maybe implementing some kind of partial % closure within the Jump EA that monitors all magic no 103's. Say with mptm setting the intial 18sl 100tp and then the jump doing its thing with the trailing stop + whenever say 30pips is hit (or whatever you define) 50% of the position is closed letting the rest run with the Jump EA.

Trying to catch best of both worlds I guess."

WTF?

All I can say is, "You're a better man than me, Gunga Din."

As for the debate about GMT +, GMT - , Daily Openings in different regions... Pivots under , Opening, Daily, Weekly, Jump down, turn around, ... buy a Sell if it has gone down the ladder (or is it up the ladder?) arghhhh!

Life is too short, chaps. So don't waste it on this ********. Excuse my French.

Just follow The Maestro, NVP, and his FX Correlator for an ulcer-free, simple, rational analysis and a good RESULT!

Trade canny,

Hamish.

Basket trading can be profitable but people meddle to much with the systems once they get a few drawdowns or losses .......

as I mentioned previously even the best systems suffer drawdown and losses and the Trader must understand the nuts and bolts of trading Forex to appreciate this .....

based on experience and some decent Forex volatility indicators I have developed - I know when any system will be underperforming so It cant be blamed for not delivering a lot of winners as many traders will do

so (in my humble opinion) most basket trading systems simply require the programmer to have a deeper and wider appreciation of Currency dynamics and correlation :smart:

N
 
hey all......

well well.......looks like the dow took a leap up and then has retraced a little

the currency dynamics are still a little shot to pieces at present .......

why ? - because the Yen is roaming seemingly wild with serious volatility

forex is a family - so whenever a currency gets out of control (or is manipulated as such) it makes the other react accordingly and everyone is thrown our of routine and patterns

welcome to the new world of serious currency manipulation ....see here

answer ?........c'mon repeat after me

TRADE WHAT YOU SEE

on the left 4Hr chart 20ma with a little softening of the Delta (Delta 3) to ease those twitches you see that buying the yen recently is a damn good call.......whatever the Dow is doing

later
N
 

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Everyone is saying that bonds are in a bubble and the Vix shows lowect volatility for a long time .....the risk of inflation is everyehere and people are potentially moving back to Equity even off the highs its already seeing

so what do you do ?

well trend followers do what they always do .......TRADE WHAT THEY SEE

they chase whatever markets they are in both up and down using simple entry and exit rules ......and they try to squeese everytihng out of the fat tails they claim are more prevalent than standard probability curves predict

I'm not totally 100% "pro" Covel and his many mentors ......but i like a lot of what I read as again the trend following is not the total secret to the system.........its the Risk , money management and portfolio/fund allocation strategies that makes the bucks

over a reasoable and extended sample size naturally......you cant judge a RaceHorse's potential on 1 walk around the showring.....(although my Grandfather could :) )

N
 
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Japan hits back at currency critics
By Jonathan Soble in Tokyo FT.com

The Japanese government has dismissed criticism that it is trying to revive the economy at the expense of the nation’s trading partners by intentionally weakening the yen, a policy that some foreign leaders warn could lead to a damaging spiral of global currency devaluations.
Akira Amari, economy minister, hit back against admonishments this week by Jens Weidmann, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank, and other German and UK officials who have raised concerns about the new Japanese government’s assertive efforts to loosen monetary policy.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Wednesday, Mr Amari rejected Mr Weidmann’s characterisation of Japanese moves as “alarming infringements” of central bank independence that could lead to “politicisation of the exchange rate”.

“Germany is the country whose exports have benefited most from the euro area’s fixed exchange rate system. He’s not in a position to criticise,” Mr Amari said.

Shinzo Abe, Japan’s new prime minister, has piled pressure on the Bank of Japan to take more aggressive action to tackle the deflation that has plagued the economy for two decades. That effort is seen as a primary cause of the yen’s 10 per cent drop against the dollar and 14 per cent tumble against the euro since November, when the election that brought the new government to power was called.

On Tuesday, the Japanese central bank succumbed to the political pressure by extending indefinitely its programme of buying up government bonds and set a target of achieving 2 per cent inflation, strengthening what had been a flexible “goal” of 1 per cent.

Mr Amari denied that the recent Japanese moves were designed specifically to weaken the yen. He said they were aimed at boosting the domestic economy and reversing the mild consumer-price deflation that has dogged Japan since the bubble burst.

“The market is in the process of correcting on its own from an excessively strong yen,” he said. “We aren’t guiding it, we aren’t doing anything.”

Michael Meister, a senior member of Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union, responded to the Bank of Japan decision by saying Germany might seek support from fellow G20 nations to pressure Japan to reverse course. Sir Mervyn King, Bank of England governor, also warned of the risk of competitive currency devaluations – dubbed “currency wars” since the US adopted unorthodox measures to ease monetary policy in 2010.

when asked for comments NVP quipped "People in Glass houses"..........
 
hey all

i'm flying blind again..........no charts till tonight and another day of not being able to make a few bucks alongside the day job.......

anyone feel free to post some charts
N
 
Japan hits back at currency critics
By Jonathan Soble in Tokyo FT.com

The Japanese government has dismissed criticism that it is trying to revive the economy at the expense of the nation’s trading partners by intentionally weakening the yen, a policy that some foreign leaders warn could lead to a damaging spiral of global currency devaluations.
Akira Amari, economy minister, hit back against admonishments this week by Jens Weidmann, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank, and other German and UK officials who have raised concerns about the new Japanese government’s assertive efforts to loosen monetary policy.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Wednesday, Mr Amari rejected Mr Weidmann’s characterisation of Japanese moves as “alarming infringements” of central bank independence that could lead to “politicisation of the exchange rate”.

“Germany is the country whose exports have benefited most from the euro area’s fixed exchange rate system. He’s not in a position to criticise,” Mr Amari said.

Shinzo Abe, Japan’s new prime minister, has piled pressure on the Bank of Japan to take more aggressive action to tackle the deflation that has plagued the economy for two decades. That effort is seen as a primary cause of the yen’s 10 per cent drop against the dollar and 14 per cent tumble against the euro since November, when the election that brought the new government to power was called.

On Tuesday, the Japanese central bank succumbed to the political pressure by extending indefinitely its programme of buying up government bonds and set a target of achieving 2 per cent inflation, strengthening what had been a flexible “goal” of 1 per cent.

Mr Amari denied that the recent Japanese moves were designed specifically to weaken the yen. He said they were aimed at boosting the domestic economy and reversing the mild consumer-price deflation that has dogged Japan since the bubble burst.

“The market is in the process of correcting on its own from an excessively strong yen,” he said. “We aren’t guiding it, we aren’t doing anything.”

Michael Meister, a senior member of Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union, responded to the Bank of Japan decision by saying Germany might seek support from fellow G20 nations to pressure Japan to reverse course. Sir Mervyn King, Bank of England governor, also warned of the risk of competitive currency devaluations – dubbed “currency wars” since the US adopted unorthodox measures to ease monetary policy in 2010.

when asked for comments NVP quipped "People in Glass houses"..........


I note

“The market is in the process of correcting on its own from an excessively strong yen,” he said. “We aren’t guiding it, we aren’t doing anything.”

That's what the CoT Report has been suggesting for weeks - and now maybe (a definite maybe in MHO) the Commercials have turned the market. And they are always 'right' at the turn.

Meanwhile, I hope I did not deter anybody from seeing what Basket Trading has to offer - I was a bit didactic. I revise my view in the interest of further learning about the market and because additional study last night led me to "kos" and "Still Basketting" on another forum. I recommend a look.

Trade canny,

Hamish.
 
heres my technical analysis re trading the yellow yen line on the FXcorrelator

When the wiggly yellow line goes up buy it and when it goes down sell it.........

Next...
N
 
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