Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies
NVP
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FT today .....
Anyone wanna buy some second-hand Euros ?.....only one owner ?
Switzerland is facing the consequences of a vow to keep the franc weak.
Figures released by the Swiss National Bank on Tuesday show that its euro holdings have ballooned in the second quarter of the year, as the bank battles haven demand from investors and struggles to maintain a ceiling of SFr1.20 against the single currency.
Switzerland has been accumulating foreign exchange reserves so quickly in recent weeks that it has been labelled “the new China”. The country has SFr365bn ($374bn) worth of foreign exchange, making it the sixth biggest holder of reserves in the world behind China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Taiwan.
But the cost of defending the franc limit is becoming apparent. The SNB’s policy of weakening the Swiss franc means that it is accumulating euros so rapidly it is unable to offload them fast enough. Crucially, the proportion of its reserves held in euros has risen from 51 per cent at the end of the first quarter to 60 per cent by June. Analysts say that is a warning sign the bank is finding it difficult to rebalance its assets.
“There’s a logic that says they can print Swiss francs until the cows come home, but the problem is they’re not controlling the outcome on the euro side. There’s the risk they’ll be holding an asset that’s viewed as being very poor quality,” says Steven Englander, foreign exchange strategist at Citigroup.
Switzerland’s swollen forex reserves are a relatively recent problem. While the central bank introduced the ceiling against the euro last September, it did not have to buy euros to defend the franc until the eurozone debt crisis intensified in the second quarter of this year. Indeed, most of the SNB’s euros were added in May and June as Switzerland embarked on a buying spree to keep the franc weak in the face of heavy demand for a haven in Europe.
That buying has not been reflected in the value of the franc. Since the start of April, the franc has traded within a whisker of the ceiling against the euro, at around SFr1.2010. But the SNB’s own foreign currency reserve holdings started to show a different picture in June, with the bank buying an estimated SFr60bn worth of euros in May alone to keep the franc where it was.
Analysts estimate that the bank is now buying about SFr3bn a day in euros. Elsa Lignos, foreign currency analyst at RBC Capital Markets, points out that if the SNB continues to accumulate euros at this rapid rate, in four years its foreign currency reserves will be higher than those of China, which has the largest forex stockpile in the world at $3.24tn.
That impressive accumulation is also making the SNB a huge force in the forex markets as it seeks to shed euros and rebalance its assets, a process that many forex traders are trying to second guess.
Analysts believe the SNB is responsible for some of the more unusual moves in the currency markets since the euro first started selling off in May. The SNB increased its holdings of “other” currencies in the second quarter from 3 to 4 per cent. Those currencies are defined by the SNB as the Swedish krona, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Danish krone, Korean won and the Singapore dollar. The SNB is believed to have contributed to the recent unusual strength of the first three currencies.
Still, the SNB is not moving as fast as many had expected. Many analysts thought the central bank would have kept the proportion of euros it holds at closer to 50 per cent. The latest data suggest the SNB has a lot of “dud” assets on its balance sheet at precisely the time nearly all other investors are dumping their euro holdings.
Geoffrey Yu, foreign currency analyst at UBS, suggests the SNB is “trying not to annoy people” by selling all its euros as soon as it buys them, which could lead to further downward and destabilising pressure on the single currency.
The SNB is also creating a headache for other central banks, faced with rising demand for their currencies as Switzerland embarks on its rebalancing act. “Sweden will need to set monetary policy now with the SNB in mind,” says Mr Yu.
Geoffrey Kendrick, foreign currency analyst at Nomura, estimates that, even if the central bank bought no more euros, it still needs to sell SFr20bn of euros to return to the same proportion of holdings it had in the first quarter. Offloading that could push the single currency sharply lower against other big currencies such as the dollar.
Anyone wanna buy some second-hand Euros ?.....only one owner ?
Switzerland is facing the consequences of a vow to keep the franc weak.
Figures released by the Swiss National Bank on Tuesday show that its euro holdings have ballooned in the second quarter of the year, as the bank battles haven demand from investors and struggles to maintain a ceiling of SFr1.20 against the single currency.
Switzerland has been accumulating foreign exchange reserves so quickly in recent weeks that it has been labelled “the new China”. The country has SFr365bn ($374bn) worth of foreign exchange, making it the sixth biggest holder of reserves in the world behind China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Taiwan.
But the cost of defending the franc limit is becoming apparent. The SNB’s policy of weakening the Swiss franc means that it is accumulating euros so rapidly it is unable to offload them fast enough. Crucially, the proportion of its reserves held in euros has risen from 51 per cent at the end of the first quarter to 60 per cent by June. Analysts say that is a warning sign the bank is finding it difficult to rebalance its assets.
“There’s a logic that says they can print Swiss francs until the cows come home, but the problem is they’re not controlling the outcome on the euro side. There’s the risk they’ll be holding an asset that’s viewed as being very poor quality,” says Steven Englander, foreign exchange strategist at Citigroup.
Switzerland’s swollen forex reserves are a relatively recent problem. While the central bank introduced the ceiling against the euro last September, it did not have to buy euros to defend the franc until the eurozone debt crisis intensified in the second quarter of this year. Indeed, most of the SNB’s euros were added in May and June as Switzerland embarked on a buying spree to keep the franc weak in the face of heavy demand for a haven in Europe.
That buying has not been reflected in the value of the franc. Since the start of April, the franc has traded within a whisker of the ceiling against the euro, at around SFr1.2010. But the SNB’s own foreign currency reserve holdings started to show a different picture in June, with the bank buying an estimated SFr60bn worth of euros in May alone to keep the franc where it was.
Analysts estimate that the bank is now buying about SFr3bn a day in euros. Elsa Lignos, foreign currency analyst at RBC Capital Markets, points out that if the SNB continues to accumulate euros at this rapid rate, in four years its foreign currency reserves will be higher than those of China, which has the largest forex stockpile in the world at $3.24tn.
That impressive accumulation is also making the SNB a huge force in the forex markets as it seeks to shed euros and rebalance its assets, a process that many forex traders are trying to second guess.
Analysts believe the SNB is responsible for some of the more unusual moves in the currency markets since the euro first started selling off in May. The SNB increased its holdings of “other” currencies in the second quarter from 3 to 4 per cent. Those currencies are defined by the SNB as the Swedish krona, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Danish krone, Korean won and the Singapore dollar. The SNB is believed to have contributed to the recent unusual strength of the first three currencies.
Still, the SNB is not moving as fast as many had expected. Many analysts thought the central bank would have kept the proportion of euros it holds at closer to 50 per cent. The latest data suggest the SNB has a lot of “dud” assets on its balance sheet at precisely the time nearly all other investors are dumping their euro holdings.
Geoffrey Yu, foreign currency analyst at UBS, suggests the SNB is “trying not to annoy people” by selling all its euros as soon as it buys them, which could lead to further downward and destabilising pressure on the single currency.
The SNB is also creating a headache for other central banks, faced with rising demand for their currencies as Switzerland embarks on its rebalancing act. “Sweden will need to set monetary policy now with the SNB in mind,” says Mr Yu.
Geoffrey Kendrick, foreign currency analyst at Nomura, estimates that, even if the central bank bought no more euros, it still needs to sell SFr20bn of euros to return to the same proportion of holdings it had in the first quarter. Offloading that could push the single currency sharply lower against other big currencies such as the dollar.
NVP
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NVP
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well the Dow kept coming North as NFP’s were positive
that meant the earlier sells on USD just kept getting better and better until they faded into the US evening
Nice !
enjoy the olympic weekend …i will
NVP
My free system is available below and I refer to it here all the time....theres no need to get fancy and dandy with megatron based multilevel multitimeframe based algorithmic ujamarflips........the 20ma (or any 1 setting you chose) will get you in the game
LEARN HOW YOUR STRENGTHMETER REACTS IN ALL SITUATIONS AND THE WORLD OF CURRENCY CORRELATION AND BEHAVIOUR WILL APPEAR TO YOU IN TIME AND WITH PRACTICE -
Join me and see what I see ! :smart:
NVP
that meant the earlier sells on USD just kept getting better and better until they faded into the US evening
Nice !
enjoy the olympic weekend …i will
NVP
My free system is available below and I refer to it here all the time....theres no need to get fancy and dandy with megatron based multilevel multitimeframe based algorithmic ujamarflips........the 20ma (or any 1 setting you chose) will get you in the game
LEARN HOW YOUR STRENGTHMETER REACTS IN ALL SITUATIONS AND THE WORLD OF CURRENCY CORRELATION AND BEHAVIOUR WILL APPEAR TO YOU IN TIME AND WITH PRACTICE -
Join me and see what I see ! :smart:
NVP
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NVP
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Hey all
boyoboy did i enjoy my weekend following the Olympics
a lot of gifted people dedicated to their vocational path with many years of effort and focus and training
Performing at the highest level in the toughest arena in the world ...but only few make it to Gold
sound familiar ?
N
boyoboy did i enjoy my weekend following the Olympics
a lot of gifted people dedicated to their vocational path with many years of effort and focus and training
Performing at the highest level in the toughest arena in the world ...but only few make it to Gold
sound familiar ?
N
NVP
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NVP
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hey all
on a daily chart using the basic 20ma settings heres what we saw for July
and I have numbered key signals / decision areas as the bars unfolded
can you see why red 3 was not a trade ?
but can you see how that alerted me that the gang was not behaving in correlation karna and to strike when it got back into correlation for 4 ?
Even using the simple 20ma settings you can watch the market patterns and get ideas of where things are going (like that July holday in the south for euro and CHF !)
.....and the Daily can give you real setups for the lower TF’s ….
like now…..aside from economic News (that always drives the market) we see a bullish Dow and a falling yen and usd ….I would figure a little retracing is coming and I would be chasing buys on the Yen and USD of a falling dow this week on lower TF’s …but only on decent signals !
Be good
NVP
on a daily chart using the basic 20ma settings heres what we saw for July
and I have numbered key signals / decision areas as the bars unfolded
can you see why red 3 was not a trade ?
but can you see how that alerted me that the gang was not behaving in correlation karna and to strike when it got back into correlation for 4 ?
Even using the simple 20ma settings you can watch the market patterns and get ideas of where things are going (like that July holday in the south for euro and CHF !)
.....and the Daily can give you real setups for the lower TF’s ….
like now…..aside from economic News (that always drives the market) we see a bullish Dow and a falling yen and usd ….I would figure a little retracing is coming and I would be chasing buys on the Yen and USD of a falling dow this week on lower TF’s …but only on decent signals !
Be good
NVP
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NVP
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This weekend I was also challenging Authors on the recent (many) E-Mails I get regarding the unlimited wealth available to me on the Forex Trading if I buy their course and training
some are laughable and I just cant resist biting and responding to the trash received
one person after the initial exchanges provided me with backtesting results that were simply unbelievable and I put them straight ......I also told some of them that I would put their name out in the spotlight if their garbage ever hit any of my sites or addresses again as it was an embarrassment to anyone trying to Trade or help people trade
it wont stop them though so i ask you all to be vigilant and take responsibility for your own educations in this tough arena of Trading
but you knew that right ?
good !
NVP
some are laughable and I just cant resist biting and responding to the trash received
one person after the initial exchanges provided me with backtesting results that were simply unbelievable and I put them straight ......I also told some of them that I would put their name out in the spotlight if their garbage ever hit any of my sites or addresses again as it was an embarrassment to anyone trying to Trade or help people trade
it wont stop them though so i ask you all to be vigilant and take responsibility for your own educations in this tough arena of Trading
but you knew that right ?
good !
NVP
Last edited:
NVP
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If you are serious about trading I can only truely recommend a handful of Traders/Educators that I admire and respect
Lance Beggs (price action trading)
Tom Yeomans (Strengthmeter based trading)
and also take a look at John Bartlett if you are a beginner and want some non nonsense introductions to trading and a few ideas and pointers for the future
of course there are many more great traders out there who I have not experienced but these guys have stood the test of time and know what they are doing
respect guys
NVP
Lance Beggs (price action trading)
Tom Yeomans (Strengthmeter based trading)
and also take a look at John Bartlett if you are a beginner and want some non nonsense introductions to trading and a few ideas and pointers for the future
of course there are many more great traders out there who I have not experienced but these guys have stood the test of time and know what they are doing
respect guys
NVP
NVP
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hey all
i'm not having time to get into action today but see my earlier post ?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...-basic-ideas-strategies-1193.html#post1933200
heres a nice trade on the 15m TF earlier supporting my hunt for retraces on the daily as mentioned above.....the GBP sell (red line) was a screamer !!!
its all currently looking a little screwed at the moment....but unless any Econimic News hits the markets I would be hunting the Dow falls and Yen USD buys ........
lets see what the Dow does on the bell
N
i'm not having time to get into action today but see my earlier post ?
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...-basic-ideas-strategies-1193.html#post1933200
heres a nice trade on the 15m TF earlier supporting my hunt for retraces on the daily as mentioned above.....the GBP sell (red line) was a screamer !!!
its all currently looking a little screwed at the moment....but unless any Econimic News hits the markets I would be hunting the Dow falls and Yen USD buys ........
lets see what the Dow does on the bell
N
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NVP
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NVP
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hey all
keep it simple .....especially when you are starting out
heres how to reduce all those lines on the chart !
N
make it simpler|FXCORRELATOR
keep it simple .....especially when you are starting out
heres how to reduce all those lines on the chart !
N
make it simpler|FXCORRELATOR
NVP
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hey all
i have spent years and years developing and learning about Strengthmeters – so I am used to charts that look very messy and complicated to most people !
its not showing off or being clever ….its just practice !
so keep it simple in the early days of learning
I would suggest you remove the ….
CAD
NZD
CHF
and get it down to 5 lines by using the settings on the indicator (see the picture below)
now you can focus on the main players and movers !
same rules apply !
NVP
i have spent years and years developing and learning about Strengthmeters – so I am used to charts that look very messy and complicated to most people !
its not showing off or being clever ….its just practice !
so keep it simple in the early days of learning
I would suggest you remove the ….
CAD
NZD
CHF
and get it down to 5 lines by using the settings on the indicator (see the picture below)
now you can focus on the main players and movers !
same rules apply !
NVP
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NVP
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hey all
heres the 15m overnights
the left chart is 8 line normal FXCorrelator (nickname Corrie).....but whats this on the right ?
its a slimmed-down 5 line DIET CORRIE
so whats cooking ?
well AUD buys overnight in asian session as Dow futures got bigger
and now in last bar I'm looking at that yen , USD rise above the Zero off a falling Dow ....hmmmmmmm
N
heres the 15m overnights
the left chart is 8 line normal FXCorrelator (nickname Corrie).....but whats this on the right ?
its a slimmed-down 5 line DIET CORRIE
so whats cooking ?
well AUD buys overnight in asian session as Dow futures got bigger
and now in last bar I'm looking at that yen , USD rise above the Zero off a falling Dow ....hmmmmmmm
N
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NVP
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hey all
Minemee asked me a good question
the FXCorrelator indicator is on a default setting of 20ma
that means it looks at the last 20 bars and gives you the average value on the chart for all the lines
all MT4 brokers have different values at any time for the currency pairs on their charts .....its because Forex has not got a prescribed central market.....so Brokers create their own market based on the concensus being seen (and for their own Books / positions)
dont fight it or challenge it ...its just life......and if the Brokers were not there most of you wouldnt be learning to trade !
so go with the charts of the broker you prefer to get corrie up on the screen ......no one says you have to use them to trade as well (??)
N
Minemee asked me a good question
the FXCorrelator indicator is on a default setting of 20ma
that means it looks at the last 20 bars and gives you the average value on the chart for all the lines
all MT4 brokers have different values at any time for the currency pairs on their charts .....its because Forex has not got a prescribed central market.....so Brokers create their own market based on the concensus being seen (and for their own Books / positions)
dont fight it or challenge it ...its just life......and if the Brokers were not there most of you wouldnt be learning to trade !
so go with the charts of the broker you prefer to get corrie up on the screen ......no one says you have to use them to trade as well (??)
N
NVP
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Diet corrie on the right - daily charts
the Dow Held on the Daily's yesterday - just ?
i'm not so sure today .....i'm still figuring that Dow will take a hit this week and retrace
that would probably mean the orange AUD takes major pain (off that nice recent rise)
and USD and Yen go north............sure Euro and GBP will probably take flak as well if it happens....and looking at the bearish GBP (red) below in charts - its pretty weak already !
so i'm still very keen to follow THOSE moves on lower TF's today more than the other direction
but thats just me ....trade what you see !
NVP
the Dow Held on the Daily's yesterday - just ?
i'm not so sure today .....i'm still figuring that Dow will take a hit this week and retrace
that would probably mean the orange AUD takes major pain (off that nice recent rise)
and USD and Yen go north............sure Euro and GBP will probably take flak as well if it happens....and looking at the bearish GBP (red) below in charts - its pretty weak already !
so i'm still very keen to follow THOSE moves on lower TF's today more than the other direction
but thats just me ....trade what you see !
NVP
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NVP
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hey all
jees today is misbehaving !
that Daily (left) corrie is not retracing at all.....
all I see on lower TF's is nice Dow buy (usd and Yen sell) trades across the board .....with GBP mopping up nice buy pips !
thats my 15m TF Diet Corrie on the right with some lines removed (See earlier posts today)
NVP
jees today is misbehaving !
that Daily (left) corrie is not retracing at all.....
all I see on lower TF's is nice Dow buy (usd and Yen sell) trades across the board .....with GBP mopping up nice buy pips !
thats my 15m TF Diet Corrie on the right with some lines removed (See earlier posts today)
NVP
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NVP
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NVP
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hey all
heres the daily FXcorrelator on the left …..and my new Diet version (5 lines)on a lower 1 Hr TF
I have been saying that I am hunting a falling Dow this week….
looks like its starting now …..Today
if I were in that time zone I would have attacked that falling Dow (rising Yen and USD) overnight
GBP took the pain (as it should given how weak it is on the daily…see red lines below ?)
should be fun today !!
NVP
heres the daily FXcorrelator on the left …..and my new Diet version (5 lines)on a lower 1 Hr TF
I have been saying that I am hunting a falling Dow this week….
looks like its starting now …..Today
if I were in that time zone I would have attacked that falling Dow (rising Yen and USD) overnight
GBP took the pain (as it should given how weak it is on the daily…see red lines below ?)
should be fun today !!
NVP
