Confidence

[trendie]

crap!
as an example, I went SHORT EURJPY at 164.19 this morning about 11-am.

it went sideways, basing around the tight range of 164.05-ish.
then it spiked up, scared me out for +2 pips.
now, its close to my target of 163.65
(this mornings action after 7-am showed the EURJPY congesting around 163.75/65).

I have missed out on 50+ pips, and took a poxy 2.
my logic was fine, as my entry hardly went underwater, but got spooked out.

EDIT: perhaps I should stop using this thread to vent my frustration.

 

[Vrothdar]

Why did you close for +2? You hadn't moved your stoploss had you? If I've understood correctly you decide a stoploss and a target at the same time you place an order. If that's the case you need to ensure you don't ever close a trade for any other value. It it reaches your stoploss - close. If it reaches your target - close. If it's anywhere else don't do anything, regardless of where it once was.

Your strategy will only be sound if you stick to it and by closing trades anywhere other than your stoploss or target you aren't sticking to it.

 

[trendie]

Why did you close for +2? You hadn't moved your stoploss had you? If I've understood correctly you decide a stoploss and a target at the same time you place an order. If that's the case you need to ensure you don't ever close a trade for any other value. It it reaches your stoploss - close. If it reaches your target - close. If it's anywhere else don't do anything, regardless of where it once was.

Your strategy will only be sound if you stick to it and by closing trades anywhere other than your stoploss or target you aren't sticking to it.

I was at my screen, had nothing to do, and wary of being wrong.
Ironically, I "made" myself wrong.
Its that thing about manifesting the very thing you fear most.

Feckin' EURJPY is at 163.50.

I am a good trader. I picked a good entry.
I am a good trader. I picked a good entry.
I am a good trader. I picked a good entry.
Breathe deeply.
And relax.

Tomorrow is another day. (just dont chuffin balls it up)
Breather deeply.
And relax.

 

[Vrothdar]

When you take an entry and decide a stoploss write them down (as well as target if you set one). When you exit a trade write that price down and if it's not the stoploss or target write down why you exited and whether your stoploss or target was hit first.

In your situation that's what I'd be doing. It should give you some insight in to why you're doing what you're doing and having a written record of how successful your trades would have been if you'd stuck to the plan should help make it easier for you to be confident and do just that.

Best of luck for tomorrow.

 

[Paul71]

I was at my screen, had nothing to do....


Tomoz, write your prices down for your various markets, set audio alerts if you like. Trendie, if the market is not at the magic number, leave it, let it come to you, then zap it......but don't mess. Messing is messing, trading is trading, messing is not trading.

Good luck.

 

[new_trader]

Messing is messing, trading is trading, messing is not trading.

I like it

 

[Bladerunner]

Brain Box does not like change

nerves back again.
can't explain why. when I get a losing trade, I become reluctant to take the next signal.
after even 2 consec losses and I just freeze.
utterly bizarre.

have changed rules recently for reasons of simplification (fewer indicators), but in principle I still buy lower-TF oversold in higher-TF uptrend, and vice versa. (pullbacks)

consequence of nerves is, have been snatching at smaller profits, but still take full stop-loss, so win average and loss average all shot to pieces.

I think its the grass-is-greener mentality.
have been wondering if I can make more pips for less effort, and second-guessing and checking out other alternative methods.
disaster.

help. what do I do?

Hi Trendie

Experienced pretty much exactly the same, as you consider new ways of doing things you see the upside to the changes but perhaps do not see the downside


1) Week off

2) Return and set your screens up exactly how you had them



IMO the nerves you just described are perfectly normal, trade was going wrong and your view of the market was not your usual one

Get me out of here and make it double quick

Flight or Fight triggered, sod the plan this don"t feel good at all

Smaller tf for entry (under the hour) ? Blessing or a curse :?:

If you are good at the entries it stands to reason you will be good at the exits also, why would anybody in their right mind watch a profitable trade go against them and turn into a loss ? think you have just managed the whole of the trade in the lower tf without a good detailed plan for the modifications you have made to your trading, bit of drift in method.

I find Lower tf entries = multiple attempts = pretty much full on concentration = Burn out =

I have come to the conclusion the little buggers are a curse and nothing at the end of the day is gained = Mr Rolls is correct.



pulled the chart of the instrument you were trading

3 mins was in range for some time after what was at the end of the day a profitable exit / scratch and offered a number of later entries based on your original trade idea, hour lows went proper later in the day


Good luck with it Trendie :clover:

Andy

 

[Paul71]

IMO the nerves you just described are perfectly normal, trade was going wrong and your view of the market was not your usual one
Andy

Correct! It's a big no-no swapping and changing methods and practices with real money, in the big arena. The sim acc, that's the place for practice and change.

 

[trendie]

Correct! It's a big no-no swapping and changing methods and practices with real money, in the big arena. The sim acc, that's the place for practice and change.

switching to paper trading for rest of week. and wouldnt you know it, GBPUSD sells off big-time.

I dont know if the market is sticking two fingers up at me, or just letting me know there's a lot of money around for when I get back.

its so much easier holding onto a paper-trade than the real thing.

 

[BSD]

Another thing that might help is to think like a Casino:

Ignore wanting to be right on every run of the giant roulette wheel, be satisfied with your long term edge.

Forget about wanting to be "right" on every single trade, which sounds a bit like what you're attempting to accomplish consciously or sub-consciously, and instead concentrate on the big picture of your overall net-profitability.

Don't forget, you can make more money than anyone can spend by being right no more than 1/3rd of the time if on average your winners are three times the size of your losers.

Of the traders I went to meet to pick something up from when starting out the best, ie most profitable, rarely had win rates above 50%.

There were some scalpers who only looked at level 2, didn't use charts, did hundreds of trades / day who had win rates of 70%, 80%, with their average stop losses larger than their take profits, making excellent money too, but at the end of the day their style is first of all pretty exhausting, and, what's worse, simply not scalable, at some point they cannot keep compounding any longer for eventual liquidity issues.

Just look at losses as an inevitable cost of doing business as a trader, just like losing regularly on the roulette wheel (etc) is a cost of doing business as a Casino, yet when the relevant stats are configured right both have a long term edge ensuring the only thing that counts at the end of the day, net profitability.

 

[Vrothdar]

I dont know if the market is sticking two fingers up at me, or just letting me know there's a lot of money around for when I get back.

It's telling you that you're strategy works and will make you a lot of money if you stick to it. Why don't you try trading with a portion of your account for a while, an amount you'd be comfortable losing all of, and trading that like you paper trade. When you see the evidence that your strategy works it could help you do the same with your full capital.

BSD's advice of thinking like a casino is on the money too imo.

 

[Paul71]

Another thing that might help is to think like a Casino:

Ignore wanting to be right on every run of the giant roulette wheel, be satisfied with your long term edge.

Forget about wanting to be "right" on every single trade, which sounds a bit like what you're attempting to accomplish consciously or sub-consciously, and instead concentrate on the big picture of your overall net-profitability.

Don't forget, you can make more money than anyone can spend by being right no more than 1/3rd of the time if on average your winners are three times the size of your losers.

Of the traders I went to meet to pick something up from when starting out the best, ie most profitable, rarely had win rates above 50%.

There were some scalpers who only looked at level 2, didn't use charts, did hundreds of trades / day who had win rates of 70%, 80%, with their average stop losses larger than their take profits, making excellent money too, but at the end of the day their style is first of all pretty exhausting, and, what's worse, simply not scalable, at some point they cannot keep compounding any longer for eventual liquidity issues.

Just look at losses as an inevitable cost of doing business as a trader, just like losing regularly on the roulette wheel (etc) is a cost of doing business as a Casino, yet when the relevant stats are configured right both have a long term edge ensuring the only thing that counts at the end of the day, net profitability.

Totally right BSD, a trader doesn't need a big strike rate, but he needs the runs (not the ones cured with imodium), so he has to be able to sometimes hit a price more than once to get the run taking losses on board. Talking about it makes it all seem a bit dis-jointed, it's just a knack or rythm.

Trendie,

Look more to the long-term rather than today or tomorrow, trading as a business is about the future. Keep crunching those numbers bud