Commodity Novice - Help!

Gumrepus

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I am one of a long line (apparently) of CFTR suckers. Having shelled out good money for his seminar and more good money on his daily "Signposts", I spent months trying to make sense of his buy and sell signals on the US commodity markets. Of course, this was to no avail and I gave it up as a bad job.

On the plus side, at least I didn't get blown away! I was nevertheless intrigued by these markets and set myself a research project to see if I could identify any TA sense in them, using the historic data I had printed out over those difficult months. I don't currently pay for data, I just use the Man Group free charts.

My conclusions SEEMED pretty clear in that the agricultural charts regularly displayed clear signals, particularly trend line breaks and reversals and consolidations that then continue in the direction of trend to a target position. This was notable (to this wet behind the ears novice) in the agriculturals - grains, foods, meats - but not nearly as notable in metals, energies or forex.

I then started to paper trade these from mid September with very encouraging results - 44% paper return on capital over six weeks or so on a hit rate of over 60%. I have just started doing it for real, with mixed results but I'm not even nearly dead - yet.

Fortunately I came upon your site the other day, and having spent some enjoyable hours browsing through it, I rapidly came to the conclusion that this could be a great source of help and support.

So, people, can any traders who are experienced and profiting in these markets offer any positive advice or sound sources of information to me?

If you tell me that cutting my wrists will be less painful and more positive, then that's fair enough.

Yours in hope.

Gumrepus
 
Hi Gumrepus

Welcome to T2W :cool:
I would have a look at www.mrci.com, as there is a lot of useful commodity information there.
In terms of any tips, just go careful as the losses can be heavy in the commodity markets. Apart from that, commodity trading is similar to all other forms, so have a look around the site as there is a lot of useful information.

Hope this helps :)
 
Be prepared for lots and lots and lots of slippage........ cost me 17ticks yesterday in beans, wasnt happy :devilish:
 
I suggest trading option spreads, allows limited risk and could reduce delta to (or up to) 25% of the underlying future.
 
FTSE Beater said:
Hi Gumrepus

Welcome to T2W :cool:
I would have a look at www.mrci.com, as there is a lot of useful commodity information there.
In terms of any tips, just go careful as the losses can be heavy in the commodity markets. Apart from that, commodity trading is similar to all other forms, so have a look around the site as there is a lot of useful information.

Hope this helps :)

Hi FTSE Beater

Thank you so much for your response and your welcome. The web site you suggested looks great and I look forward to mining it!

Your other comments also gratefully received. This site is tremendous and I look forward to many hours absorbing its contents. I have found your basic trading course and I am eagerly working through it.

Thanks again.

Gumrepus
 
minx said:
Be prepared for lots and lots and lots of slippage........ cost me 17ticks yesterday in beans, wasnt happy :devilish:

Hi Minx

Thank you very much for your reply. You are right, it's a slippery old job with these things.

Best Wishes

Gumrepus
 
Moneycat said:
I suggest trading option spreads, allows limited risk and could reduce delta to (or up to) 25% of the underlying future.

Hi Moneycat

Thanks for your reply. I shall be looking into option spreads pronto.

Regards

Gumrepus
 
Do a web search for Jim Wyckoff and have a look at his free stuff. If you like it, you may want to subscribe to him. (He beats the heck out of Ken Roberts!! :LOL: )
 
Jim Wyckoff

gene said:
Do a web search for Jim Wyckoff and have a look at his free stuff. If you like it, you may want to subscribe to him. (He beats the heck out of Ken Roberts!! :LOL: )
Gene

Thanks a lot for that information. I've spent quite a long time browsing his site and I like his style. :) There appears to be a two week free subscription offer so I'll see how that goes.

I'm very grateful as I would have been rather unlikely to stumble upon him.

All the best, Gene.

Regards

Gumrepus
 
Beans & slippage? Hmmm... have you traded Cotton, Coffee, or OJ? Now THAT's slippage, let alone reported fills 45 minutes later.


For the fella that 's the beginner....

Rule #1 DON'T TRADE PORK BELLIES

Rule #2 Don't trade illiquid markets (some in NY, Lumber in Chicago, all KCBOT & MGE)

Rule #3 DON'T TRADE PORK BELLIES

Just my 2 cents (U.S.$) worth... Trade Well!
 
And watch out for that crazy Cattle market. It seems like the more bearish the major report, the more it rallies, and the more bullish a report...Well, that market is crazy. But tempting.

Pork Bellies? I just mentioned that in the Coffee thread the other day, referring to danger.

Copy/Paste: (kinda)

(Someday I'm gonna make a T-shirt: "TRADERS: ALWAYS BE AFRAID." It will have the chart that shows limit moves for several days in a row in Pork Bellies a few years back.--Hang on a minute. I'll see if I can find it..... ....... ....Here it is!)
 

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drewfus31 said:
Beans & slippage? Hmmm... have you traded Cotton, Coffee, or OJ? Now THAT's slippage, let alone reported fills 45 minutes later.

Yeah the 45 min fills are a real pain in the ass. I do trade Cotton, Coffee and my favourite, OJ, quite regularly. Strangely enough I got filled at my stop price in Lumber which isnt what I was expecting. In grains I do expect to be filled at my chosen price but the slippage can sometimes be terrible. I really wish they'd go electronic.....but I know they wont :cry:
 
yeah that would be nice, sounds like Kansas City & Minneapolis are going to start using E-CBOT for wheat here real soon... I doubt it'll happen 'til CBOT goes public or gets bought by the merc... those guys on the floor will soon be the way of the dinosaur, but they've got a lot vested in their seats
 
Slippage?

minx said:
In grains I do expect to be filled at my chosen price but the slippage can sometimes be terrible.
I have been looking in Glossaries from brokers. None of them have slippage. What is slippage anyway?
 
-oo0(GoldTrader) said:
I have been looking in Glossaries from brokers. None of them have slippage. What is slippage anyway?

Thats easy, its what causes a tsunami.
 
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