Best Thread COFFEE - The next big bull?
Stoat Trader
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Thanks to Chump for asking.
Well well well... instead of getting on with my card list and doing all the jobs I should be doing - I will be researching the marvellous info from Dave that Chump asked for and so that will answer the question posed for me before about the curiosity over whether I did the commodities.
To put it simply "NO". I am looking for diversification with all this EU Big Brother Is Going To Destroy Your Rights To Choose What To Do With Your Hideously Taxed Earnings For You.
Bitter? Absolutely! The world is going mad.
Any ideas on where to go next will be greatly appreciated as I am convinced Britain is onto a loser here.
Time to open lots of accounts in the US of A I think.
Is anyone else feeling let down and depressed over this situation or is it just me having a woman thing day?
I am REALLY concerned about it. Also how far could they take it all and what next! Sigh! I guess I'm just having a blue period. Time to be the next Picasso.
I wonder if Hubert or John Carter want a new apprentice?
Comments boys?
Sarah. The Stoat Lady.
Sorry to be sexist - Comments from the ladies equally wanted.
Well well well... instead of getting on with my card list and doing all the jobs I should be doing - I will be researching the marvellous info from Dave that Chump asked for and so that will answer the question posed for me before about the curiosity over whether I did the commodities.
To put it simply "NO". I am looking for diversification with all this EU Big Brother Is Going To Destroy Your Rights To Choose What To Do With Your Hideously Taxed Earnings For You.
Bitter? Absolutely! The world is going mad.
Any ideas on where to go next will be greatly appreciated as I am convinced Britain is onto a loser here.
Time to open lots of accounts in the US of A I think.
Is anyone else feeling let down and depressed over this situation or is it just me having a woman thing day?
I am REALLY concerned about it. Also how far could they take it all and what next! Sigh! I guess I'm just having a blue period. Time to be the next Picasso.
I wonder if Hubert or John Carter want a new apprentice?
Comments boys?
Sarah. The Stoat Lady.
Sorry to be sexist - Comments from the ladies equally wanted.
.
Maybe you're just having a ........
Sorry, Stoat trader. Bad joke.
I'm glad you found the commodities links enlightening and (hopefully) useful.
Welcome to commodities, Sarah! Your concerns re. Britain are not unfounded, but it's a bit off-topic here.
The Trader's Lounge/Money and Investing forums are the best place for that type of discussion.
Let's get back to the Coffee market here, shall we?
Stoat Trader
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whoops!
Apologies Dave.
Had a bit of a rant moment.
Thank you for your re-direction.
May your coffee trading days be full of beans (choke!).
Warm and rich and full-flavoured.
Beware of strange ladies knocking on your door and asking to borrow a cup if they have just moved in opposite!
I better run away before I get shot...........
Seriously tho, thanks for the list of helpful avenues.
The Stoat Lady.
Apologies Dave.
Had a bit of a rant moment.
Thank you for your re-direction.
May your coffee trading days be full of beans (choke!).
Warm and rich and full-flavoured.
Beware of strange ladies knocking on your door and asking to borrow a cup if they have just moved in opposite!
I better run away before I get shot...........
Seriously tho, thanks for the list of helpful avenues.
The Stoat Lady.
gene
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Look how similar these two areas are on the monthly chart. The second one has one more year of relatively sideways action (shown in yellow). That's the biggest difference I see.
The crop estimates are in from Brazil. They are at the lower end of expectations.
"Strange"?.......
The crop estimates are in from Brazil. They are at the lower end of expectations.
"Strange"?.......
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thomasdevos
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And exactly 10 years ago ....
gene
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With the bullish numbers out last Friday afternoon, I want to buy coffee Monday so bad I can taste it. But the COT chart, below, worries me. Look at the extreme positions of the commercials and the funds. How much more net short/net long can they go before reversing. (I've never really paid much attention to COT data, before. Does it help any of you?)
Also, the price is not quite convincingly above the up-trending channel.
Also, the price is not quite convincingly above the up-trending channel.
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thomasdevos
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I never pay attention to the COT data.
I'm looking at this moment for a good entry signal to enter the coffee run. Coffee looks too overbought at the moment when looking to the RSI and the MACD.
When it levels off to the 90'ish then I'm in for the long term.
I'm looking at this moment for a good entry signal to enter the coffee run. Coffee looks too overbought at the moment when looking to the RSI and the MACD.
When it levels off to the 90'ish then I'm in for the long term.
gene
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I'm having a very hard time fighting my emotions on this one. Yes, it looks overbought, but I want in. I WANT IN!!! The crop estimate is out. I'm so afraid the market is going to run away from me that I can't hear my own words, "So what? There are other markets out there." Maybe I need to stare at my signature real, real hard. Or maybe early action tomorrow morning (Monday) will give me an easy answer.
Monday Morning Edit/Update:
As I'm typing this, the price of March Coffee has dropped to 93.75...I'll wait.
...93.60.... .... ....93.50.
I reckon I'll go 'n' try to get me a little shut-eye, now.
Monday Morning Edit/Update:
As I'm typing this, the price of March Coffee has dropped to 93.75...I'll wait.
...93.60.... .... ....93.50.
I reckon I'll go 'n' try to get me a little shut-eye, now.
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thomasdevos
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You might be right.
There is a massive support around "93 so there is not much to loose if you really want to be in.
I believe the bullish figures are already calculated in the current price but the bull trend is still going, a test to 100 might extend the rally further out.
There is a massive support around "93 so there is not much to loose if you really want to be in.
I believe the bullish figures are already calculated in the current price but the bull trend is still going, a test to 100 might extend the rally further out.
roguetrader
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gene said:
Makes me think of the old line. "I'd rather be out of a trade wishing I was in, than in a trade wishing I was out."
gene
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I can't find the actual report itself: just reports of the report. Here's one:
http://www.aebrazil.com/highlights/2004/dez/10/59.htm
http://www.aebrazil.com/highlights/2004/dez/10/59.htm
TheBramble
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Although I used to be very active in Wheat and Silver I don't at the moment trade commodities.
What surprises me in this thread is the apparent bias toward fundamental analysis of the markets and reports as opposed to technical analysis.
Would that be a fair reflection of the com-traders in general or just on these boards do you feel?
Some talk of support at 93 and oversold which (to me) are technical rather than fundamental (although a purist could argue convincingly for the support level being both).
What surprises me in this thread is the apparent bias toward fundamental analysis of the markets and reports as opposed to technical analysis.
Would that be a fair reflection of the com-traders in general or just on these boards do you feel?
Some talk of support at 93 and oversold which (to me) are technical rather than fundamental (although a purist could argue convincingly for the support level being both).
gene
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I trade mostly by charts...channels, breakouts, that sort of thing. But I do like to see fundamentals agree with what I expect a market to do. I ocassionally take a peek at other technical indicaters besides the charts, but they don't carry very much weight in my decisions. I mentioned the COT earlier in this thread because the net long/net short positions of the big boys are so extreme, and I was sorta askin' for opinions as to whether the COT really means anything.
When I do look at the fundamentals, I try to figure out which ones count.
"There's a drought in Kansas" and the prices go up.
"But it's rainin' cats & dogs in China" and the prices go down.
"There's lots & lots of corn out there" and the prices go down.
"But EVERYBODY'S buyin' the heck out of it" and the prices go up.
Or so much of the time the "fundamentals" follow the price, rather than the other way around.
However, in the coffee market, lately, the "fundamentals" seem to be more of a true fundamental nature.
Nonetheless, I put more weight in the charts......Which brings me to what has me sittin' on pins & needles waitin' to see what happens next in the market:
The market is in an uptrend. It has broken resistance on the weekly chart. The fundamentals, including Friday's report are bullish....But is it time for a pull-back before it advances further?
As far as your mention of bias toward fundamentals, I dunno. It looks balanced to me. I have a hunch that the others are like me: Preferring technicals, but not ignoring fundamentals.
When I do look at the fundamentals, I try to figure out which ones count.
"There's a drought in Kansas" and the prices go up.
"But it's rainin' cats & dogs in China" and the prices go down.
"There's lots & lots of corn out there" and the prices go down.
"But EVERYBODY'S buyin' the heck out of it" and the prices go up.
Or so much of the time the "fundamentals" follow the price, rather than the other way around.
However, in the coffee market, lately, the "fundamentals" seem to be more of a true fundamental nature.
Nonetheless, I put more weight in the charts......Which brings me to what has me sittin' on pins & needles waitin' to see what happens next in the market:
The market is in an uptrend. It has broken resistance on the weekly chart. The fundamentals, including Friday's report are bullish....But is it time for a pull-back before it advances further?
As far as your mention of bias toward fundamentals, I dunno. It looks balanced to me. I have a hunch that the others are like me: Preferring technicals, but not ignoring fundamentals.
gene
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"Fundamentals" following price? Case in point:
Here's a paragraph from an article released Friday afternoon:
"...Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, on Friday afternoon
estimated the country's 2005-06 coffee crop at 30.7 million to 33 million bags.
One analyst called the estimate extremely bullish but felt it already was
priced into the market.."
Well, the Liffe Coffee dropped Monday. Here's a paragraph from an article Monday morning:
" LONDON (Dow Jones)--Liffe coffee futures are lower Monday morning, reacting
to what brokers considered a relatively bearish Brazilian crop estimate and
Commitments of Traders' report for the New York market. Cocoa is also down
while sugar is higher..."
Here's a paragraph from an article released Friday afternoon:
"...Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, on Friday afternoon
estimated the country's 2005-06 coffee crop at 30.7 million to 33 million bags.
One analyst called the estimate extremely bullish but felt it already was
priced into the market.."
Well, the Liffe Coffee dropped Monday. Here's a paragraph from an article Monday morning:
" LONDON (Dow Jones)--Liffe coffee futures are lower Monday morning, reacting
to what brokers considered a relatively bearish Brazilian crop estimate and
Commitments of Traders' report for the New York market. Cocoa is also down
while sugar is higher..."
Some good Coffee discussion on here now - lot's of interesting and valid comments.
Let's look again at my (technical) analogy with Wheat in 2002. (I've used MAY 2005 Coffee Chart this time)
1) The anticipated correction (correction 1 on the charts below) is underway.
2) The 2002 Wheat Chart shows support holding at the (internal) trendline from LOW 1 - 6 days AFTER the old high.
3) [The 2005 Coffee chart IS AT THE (potential internal) TRENDLINE from LOW 1 - 7 days after the old high
Therefore, (using the analogy) if support holds here at this trendline, the correction would be complete, and the market would continue it's UPTREND.
Let's look again at my (technical) analogy with Wheat in 2002. (I've used MAY 2005 Coffee Chart this time)
1) The anticipated correction (correction 1 on the charts below) is underway.
2) The 2002 Wheat Chart shows support holding at the (internal) trendline from LOW 1 - 6 days AFTER the old high.
3) [The 2005 Coffee chart IS AT THE (potential internal) TRENDLINE from LOW 1 - 7 days after the old high
Therefore, (using the analogy) if support holds here at this trendline, the correction would be complete, and the market would continue it's UPTREND.
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John Cyprus
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Recently having traded more comms than stocks I found the trends to last longer and not so chopier. I had some good trades on crude recently but then who didn't?
Coffe is a bit too much for me but will give it a look.
Coffe is a bit too much for me but will give it a look.
Newport-
I'm not sure if I see an 'inverse head & shoulders' pattern - what scale of chart are you referring to? Perhaps you could put up a chart and illustrate this pattern.
Inverse H & S patterns USUALLY occur as a bottoming formation, at the end of a downtrend, following a substantial decline.
The main WEEKLY pattern (and breakout) I see as justifying further substantial upside, is rather an ASCENDING TRIANGLE - these are usually found in uptrends.
The ascending triangle shown on the Weekly chart below, broke out at 8650 and projects to 11600-11700 (or 116-117 cents/lb)
I'm not sure if I see an 'inverse head & shoulders' pattern - what scale of chart are you referring to? Perhaps you could put up a chart and illustrate this pattern.
Inverse H & S patterns USUALLY occur as a bottoming formation, at the end of a downtrend, following a substantial decline.
The main WEEKLY pattern (and breakout) I see as justifying further substantial upside, is rather an ASCENDING TRIANGLE - these are usually found in uptrends.
The ascending triangle shown on the Weekly chart below, broke out at 8650 and projects to 11600-11700 (or 116-117 cents/lb)
