CHUBB - Safe as houses???????

[cookie]

There is something not right about this one!!

Recent demerger from Kidde ( Williams Group)
and thought to be the stronger of the two.
Reached a high of 259 only to plummet to todays price of 142.

Although generally positive figures announced recently the Australian shortfall has caused a major institutional sell-off.

Huge volumes traded today - is someone stakebuilding ???

Fundamentally Chubb is the leading global provider of security services including, electronic access control, intrusion detection, CCTV, fire detection and surpression systems, alarm monitoring and security personnel services.

The Chubb brand has provided security applications for over 200 years. They employ over 40,000 people and have almost 2 million customers worldwide with market leading positions in all 4 continents.

Turnover from '99 in excess of £1200 mln is expected to grow by at least 10% to March 2000.

The share as Williams was on a fairly undemanding rating and barring further bad news appears to be downright CHEAP!

I seriously suggest we keep this one on our watchlists, it may have a bit further to go down but surely not below 120.

A take out at maybe 200 is not beyond the realms of possibility, surely this company is beginning to look attractive to the Yanks or maybe even Rentokil ??


Good Luck

Cookie

 

[Riz]

Certainly worth watching, Cookie...behaving rather strangely...hovered around 132 in the morning (9.30-10.00am) before bouncing off too 142...huge volume of 37,640,413 left the price changed only by 1p...and 600k buy order at 141 on the order book..on L2 total buy orders are 1,137,911 against sell orders of 131,000...

Here is the detail of the Profit Warning and following downgrades that dragged down the share price from 222 to 142 in 2 days:

"CHUBB, the security firm recently demerged from Williams group, saw its shares dive 20% yesterday as it issued a profits warning, blaming the Olympics, reports the Telegraph. The warning was greeted with dismay, as it came only a month after trading in the shares began on November 14. The company said that, in Australia, 'the business slowdown has been greater than anticipated'. Sales will be £25m lower and operating profits will be down £4m. A rash of downgrades immediately hit the stock, with Merrill Lynch leading the way by cutting its earnings forecast by 10%. "

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[cookie]

Strange- would you not think that there would be a greater need for security during the Olymics ???
Also directors would have been aware of this at the time of the demerger - not an endearing quality as far as the City goes.
Lets hope they have short memories.

Cookie

 

[Riz]

Hi Cookie,
Hope you haven't been late to get in..up 18.75 so far today...that was a good call you made..well done!!!


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[traderx]

Have monitored for several days. Must now be ripe for a rise. MF and OBV rising. MACD will crossup tomorrow. RSI could go either way. Jury still out, but price finally closed in positive territory today, albeit only + 0.25p to the good. Very tempted to buy today but held off. Opportunity knocks, once, twice and then kicks the door in. I think the door is about to be kicked in with this one. Massive positive volume accumulation has taken place/ price divergience and negative volume indicator is positive although it has fallen back a tad in the last two days. Conversely, the positive volume indicator is hugely negative, suggesting that joe public has been terrorised out of this stock by MM. Is it now ripe for a journey north? If we get this right it could pay for Christmas.


Tx

 

[Cigar]

I've been tempted to take positions in other shares as perhaps the tide is slowly turning. I've held off as I remember last year when the Xmas rises were taken by the big boys on their return in the New Year. I'm waiting for the New Year.