CCMP on 08/11/03?

[clylbw]

Hi,

Wonder if anyone else did CCMP yesterday on 08/11/03.

I longed it @ 54.43 just past 10:00 ET, and ran scared to cover @ 55.81 around 12:25 ET, only to see it soared to past 56.50 later. Really felt like to kick myself.

The problem is, at around 12.25 ET, all the TA tools seemed to indicate to me that it was going down: the price passed below the moving average and created a lower height, both the stochastic and the MACD headed downwards, even the volumn was high. But soon it stoped falling and headed towards a new height. I find this indeed confusing. Maybe Level II would have provided a much clearer indication?

I suppose this shows how I have been confused by the stochastic and the MACD. I have found them rather useless in the sense that they oftern give premature signals of trend reversals to me.

So, if you did CCMP and stayed through the consolidation between 11:00 to 12:30 ET, or if indeed you have been using the stochastic and the MACD successfully, can you please help me?

Thanks a lot indeed.

 

[Skimbleshanks]

I don't trade using indicators, so I can't help you on that score.

However, I noticed from the chart you posted that there is what Alan Farley calls an 'Adam & Eve Bottom' in the pullback. The Adam part is the spike down at 12:00 and the rounded Eve bottom is at 12:30 on your chart. So once there is a nice powerful bottom like that, the price took off up again.

There is also a very clear (well, to me anyway) 5-wave Elliott Wave going up.

I only point these out as perhaps additional observations in your armoury.

 

[PeterB]

Hi,
I must confess to not purchasing ccmp so have it somewhat easy with hindsight.I notice you use Stochastics I take it the slow Stoch. I use the 15,3,3 on one minute charts for entry and usually exit except on choppy days whereby I will use the 5 minute charts I use Sierra charts.Try taking the meat out of the middle not going for the whole hog so to speak I find that a safer method.I also use CCI,a 70 with bars overlaid with a 14 cci in line form,because on some occasions the 14 cci gets you in quicker mostly one minute max 2 minutes earlier.I also use a 20 ema to show me the trend do not trade when its going down,or is flat.I also have a 6ema to help it sometimes helps me see when the down trend is flattening out and reversing.So with hindsight,I would have been going long at 09.52 or 53 but out again at 10.18. Long again at 10.27 and out at 10.59.Long again at 12.35/36 and out again at 13.40 Long again 13.48/49 out again 14.24.The last one to take long for me would have been in at 14.41 out again at 14.48.Thereafter the 20 ema nosedived

 

[Mr. Charts]

B,
All according to my rules:
your entry was perfect at 54.43
your exit should have been earlier at 55.85
profit on a 1000 share trade = + $1420
If you had rigidly adhered to my rules that's what you would have made.
Instead, again on 1000 shares, doing what you did you would have made+ $1380

Excellent!!! You did brilliantly!!!

You should be very pleased with yourself and not be beating up on yourself and thinking you "ran scared".
You took most of the trend and what happened afterwards is of no consequence.
You cannot expect to know where the price was going later, no-one can. You can only act on the evidence available at the particular moment of decision. Stick rigidly to my rules and you will continue to make that sort of trade and make very good money.
Did I suggest you use macd and stochs - no!
You've got all the makings of a great and very profitable trader - very well done ;-)))
We'll meet again sometime soon and I'll be delighted to chat and help.
Best wishes,
Richard

 

[Trader333]

clylbw,

It is very dangerous to look back and wonder what could have been and will ultimately result in you losing over the long term. Why ? well what you did was stick to a trading plan that said exit when you did.

Now I wonder how you would have felt if the market had then crashed straight after you exited ? My guess is that you would be patting yourself on the back at sticking to your plan and making the exit at a perfect time. If you had stayed in the trade then would you have not broken your own rules ? In so doing when you next break them the market may well go heavily against you and now you have a situation where you are unsure for the future.

You did the right thing so dont look back, just thank yourself that you did what you had planned to do and at the right time.


Paul

 

[neil]

Well Done That Man

Do one trade a day like that and take up golf or whatever :cheesy:

 

[ChartMan]

Just a passing comment, cos I don't trade stocks and I don't know what I'm talking about but.... sell half at your exit then wait and see if the peak at 4 is broken. If so , sell the rest, or is that just trading off hindsight?

 

[clylbw]

Thanks a lot indeed for all your advice. Thank you.

Hi Richard, I am indeed looking forward to meet you again soon and discuss with you. ^O^