Candlesticks not profitable Massey University Research

[barjon]

temptrader

Several posts were removed from this thread and put in plain vanilla options or the little circle threads, both of which are closed.

I have, several times, tried to get this thread back - and keep it there - to the topic of candlesticks so I hope you'll understand why I've deleted the last few.

good trading

jon

 

[barjon]

Not quite, dear boy. In the immortal words of Frugi: the pie has been flattened by a four hundred pound bulldozer. Which is a shame really, considering the time and effort I put into it.

temptrader

not lost but on the little circle thread (which is closed)

jon

 

[firewalker99]

Do candlesticks work or not? I find it hard to answer such a question because I don't know how one defines if something "works" or not. It's my belief you can make just about anything "work" if you twist and turn it enough and add the necessary parameters or restrictions to filter out the best trades. But what does this tell you about the original idea? Does it work or not? Yes and no...

Am I right in thinking that all of the yes-voters are using candlesticks in their strategy or at least see from time to time signals which include some sort of candlestick analysis?

And could it be that most of the no-voters haven't figured out a way to use candlesticks in a profitable manner or just haven't studied candlesticks?

 

[SOCRATES]

Do candlesticks work or not?

And could it be that most of the no-voters haven't figured out a way to use candlesticks in a profitable manner or just haven't studied candlesticks?

Er...not exactly...

The no voters have figured out a way of using candlesticks in a profitable manner...but not in the way it is recommended in mainstream they should be studied......

 

[Profitaker]

Candlesticks definately work, sometimes. And therein lies the problem !

 

[SOCRATES]

temptrader

not lost but on the little circle thread (which is closed)

jon

Could we have a link to the thread please to make it easier for people who are interested, for them to be able to find it ?

 

[SOCRATES]

Er...not exactly...

The no voters have figured out a way of using candlesticks in a profitable manner...but not in the way it is recommended in mainstream they should be studied......

It is suggested to me I should tell you more clearly...

"The no voters have figured out a way of using candlesticks in a consistently profitable manner....but diametrically opposite to the way it is recommended in mainstream they should be studied.... "

I cannot tell you more.

You cannot complain that I do not tell you everything..

 

[firewalker99]

Er...not exactly...

The no voters have figured out a way of using candlesticks in a profitable manner...but not in the way it is recommended in mainstream they should be studied......

Then what does "mainstream" candlestick analysis recommended and how does it differ then from the way they should be studied? Please enlighten me

I use candlesticks on my charts because I've gotten used to them and sometimes they can confirm what I see, but I don't rely on them to take signals.

 

[firewalker99]

Candlesticks definately work, sometimes. And therein lies the problem !

Forgive me, but therein lies the answer. At least for me.

 

[firewalker99]

It is suggested to me I should tell you more clearly...

"The no voters have figured out a way of using candlesticks in a consistently profitable manner....but diametrically opposite to the way it is recommended in mainstream they should be studied.... "

I cannot tell you more.

You cannot complain that I do not tell you everything..

I hardly ever complain

But if the way to use candlesticks in a consistently profitable manner is exactly the opposite of the way it is recommended in mainstream, than basically all we need to do is study mainstream. If it only were that easy... :|

 

[firewalker99]

[/COLOR]
Tomorrow is triple witching day, which only occurs 4 times a year, yet no one has mentioned it at all.

Everything is expected to go haywire as usual on these days, so watch it and play safe.

About that quadruple whitching day everybody talked about. I was wide awake that day, but I must have missed something because on my charts nothing spectacular happened. In fact it was a rather boring day on most US markets. Europe was up, but nothing extraordinary last week.

 

[SOCRATES]

I hardly ever complain

But if the way to use candlesticks in a consistently profitable manner is exactly the opposite of the way it is recommended in mainstream, than basically all we need to do is study mainstream. If it only were that easy... :|

Consider everything that is available and you see and hear and are told in mainstream and then act for yourself by doing the opposite, like for example, you see on these boards I am constantly being pestered and picked on by detractors who argue against me, Does it really bother me ? No. I just get on with it.

Frequently because what I do is the opposite of what they percieve I ought to be doing, (which is from a mainstream perspective), they get annoyed with me. Does it worry me ? No. I just carry on, not with what they might fancifully assume I ought to be doing but what must be DONE.

 

[SOCRATES]

About that quadruple whitching day everybody talked about. I was wide awake that day, but I must have missed something because on my charts nothing spectacular happened. In fact it was a rather boring day on most US markets. Europe was up, but nothing extraordinary last week.

Well, you must be on the lookout.

These are occasions in the trading calendar which present opportunities for mischief under the guise of a justifiable excuse.

That is why sometimes things go haywire and sometimes not.

I agree with you it can be baffling for a lot of people.

 

[SOCRATES]

Then what does "mainstream" candlestick analysis recommended and how does it differ then from the way they should be studied? Please enlighten me

I use candlesticks on my charts because I've gotten used to them and sometimes they can confirm what I see, but I don't rely on them to take signals.

Every single book written on the subject is done so from a mainstream perspective and not the incisive professional perspective that is needed. Therefore the whole topic is enveloped in a fog of muddlement. To make it worse there are many people in whose interest it is to perpetuate this muddlement, and I am sure it is not intended so that they can hide their advantages but because they are obsessed with perpetuating the nonsense as they know no better. This is the reason why the moment the subject is brought up, it leads to endless silly circular argument ending in grief.

For this reason I am nowadays obligated to keep my own counsel and not overtly contradict because it only stimulates those who ought to keep quiet and learn instead to start to "perform", like the thread you patiently persisted with to no avail and I warned you, remember ?

The key to the whole thing is to become your own man and not part of the crowd.

It is only then that you can begin to think for yourself, out of the box, if necessary.

 

[jacinto]

ok, in an effort to get back to topic, I have several issues regarding any sort of price pattern, be it candlesticks, chart patterns, etc. and the question is rather simple, yet simple questions typically are the ones to make us think

assuming there is a trend in place, what should a trader do first, identifying a candlestick reversal pattern, or resistance?

the answer is obvious. the point is to comment that a candlestick pattern is dependent on context.

j

 

[SOCRATES]

ok, in an effort to get back to topic, I have several issues regarding any sort of price pattern, be it candlesticks, chart patterns, etc. and the question is rather simple, yet simple questions typically are the ones to make us think

assuming there is a trend in place, what should a trader do first, identifying a candlestick reversal pattern, or resistance?

the answer is obvious. the point is to comment that a candlestick pattern is dependent on context.

j

Exactly.

 

[jacinto]

ok, in an effort to get back to topic, I have several issues regarding any sort of price pattern, be it candlesticks, chart patterns, etc. and the question is rather simple, yet simple questions typically are the ones to make us think

assuming there is a trend in place, what should a trader do first, identifying a candlestick reversal pattern, or resistance?

the answer is obvious. the point is to comment that a candlestick pattern is dependent on context.

j

and to finish it off, have another question

1) once the trader has identified resistance (or so he/she thinks he/she does), how can the trader know that was resistance

2) assuming the trader identified signs of resistance, how does the trader know that resistance is resistance, and if that "thought" is enhanced because there is, coincidentally, a candelstick reversal pattern?

to what extent are candlestick pattenrs bringing noise to the perception of a trader he has identified resistance?

probably not making sense anymore. off to bed. hope the bananas dont fly that fast tonight

 

[SOCRATES]

and to finish it off, have another question

1) once the trader has identified resistance (or so he/she thinks he/she does), how can the trader know that was resistance

2) assuming the trader identified signs of resistance, how does the trader know that resistance is resistance, and if that "thought" is enhanced because there is, coincidentally, a candelstick reversal pattern?

to what extent are candlestick pattenrs bringing noise to the perception of a trader he has identified resistance?

probably not making sense anymore. off to bed. hope the bananas dont fly that fast tonight

No, it makes sense, perfect sense.

But you see, it is the behaviour of the price that gives the clue, not the images.

You have to get inside the decision making cycle that is presented to you.

By this I mean you have to get inside the mind of the market as it unfolds, and this does not come from candles, because candles just record the track of prices within a given timeframe.

The excercise is more fluid than that, which is the difficulty most people encounter, whch is understandable.

As for the bananas etc., don't worry, I have recorded everything of carbunkular and moronic interest.. ...and stored it in a safe place...perhaps to unleash it later if deemed appropriate... ...u know wot I mean...

 

[new_trader]

No, it makes sense, perfect sense.

But you see, it is the behaviour of the price that gives the clue, not the images.

You have to get inside the decision making cycle that is presented to you.

By this I mean you have to get inside the mind of the market as it unfolds, and this does not come from candles, because candles just record the track of prices within a given timeframe.

The excercise is more fluid than that, which is the difficulty most people encounter, whch is understandable.

As for the bananas etc., don't worry, I have recorded everything of carbunkular and moronic interest.. ...and stored it in a safe place...perhaps to unleash it later if deemed appropriate... ...u know wot I mean...

Hi Socrates,

Would you also say that there is volume concealed within the candles which obscures the true nature of the pattern?

 

[SOCRATES]

Hi Socrates,

Would you also say that there is volume concealed within the candles which obscures the true nature of the pattern?

What is concealed inside the candles is the intent, the ultimate intent that you have to suss correctly.

Volume is either the cause or the result of that intent manifesting itself and being declared as the price action unfolds.

And now to bed, up at 0730 for the pre. Goodnight.