Can you really make money spread betting

we talking 49 months experience times an average of 30 days per month equals 1470 days. spending 8 hours every single one of those days studying the market equals 11760 hours. i think most here agree that studying the market for 8 hours a day for 1470 days in a row is toss. so based on the fact you have over exaggerated your efforts. its highly likely you doing the same for your results.


forker,

You have made an error in your calculation.

I started studying and trading in October 1997. (168 Months ago, not 49 Months ago).

I've only been trading for my personal income since October 2007. (I think this might be where you calculated from)

On average, I'm at the market around 40 hours per week.

However, this is a little off topic now and I don't wish to interrupt the real reason of this thread.
 
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Fellas.... I didn't mean to come across as hyping myself up. That I am definitely not.

Yes, I could turn £500 into £2000 over and over again, but having this ability does not happen overnight. It's taken me tens of thousands of hours dedicated to studying the markets and I'm still more than capable of cocking it up. Once balance achieves £2000, it moves up much slower as I'll then trade £1 per £1000 of balance, i.e £2 per point averaging £60 profit per profitable day based on an average 4 profitable days per week. The average single losing day per week can vary and I haven't been able to, or really bothered to trend it.

In accounts with significantly higher balances, my % returns are significantly smaller and so are the number of trades I take, usually 1 - 2 per week and these tend to be swing trades that form my main income.

With my £25 project (in which almost every trade was published live online), although a ridiculously small amount of money to start with the idea was to prove that anybody could profit from the markets regardless of how small their initial pot. Building the first £100 was incredibly difficult and time consuming, waiting days or weeks for a high probability trading set-up before taking EUR:USD positions of 25p - 50p per point and using guaranteed stop losses (to allow more margin). Once past around £300 things sped up and £1800 was achieved within 5 Months. Over the following 3 Months, absolutely everything I touched went wrong.... I just couldn't seem to take a winning trade (same in my main trading accounts), so I went on holiday for a few weeks to re-charge my batteries. On my return things improved, and on the 1 year anniversary a £2030 balance was recorded.

I've only been trading for myself since October 2007 after choosing to leave the industry and completely change my career path (I didn't exactly see the crash coming, but knew things were going to get out of control but nobody would listen to me. RBS taking over ABN Amro was the final straw for me). Prior to that I'd worked in the Finance industry for 10 years, but even there, everything I learned was self taught. I have over 800 trading books, and have never read a single one! They may help some people, but for me, if I'm to be able to think outside of the box, I need to avoid influence.

As for "potentially being one of the richest people on the planet", absolutely not....Put me on large stakes of my own money and it all goes wrong - I have always traded small and always will. £20 per point is the largest I've ever traded per individual trade, but generally I'll trade 1/4 of that maximum unless something is dripping free points all over the place and set ups like that don't come often! It's a good idea to stick a couple of £20 notes on your monitor to remind yourself of the value of the numbers on your screen....and if like me you started with nothing, to remind you of those early days where having £20 was the difference between eating an evening meal or going hungry!

Hope I've explained myself and redeemed the wrong impression my post may have given. I do like writing essays so aplogies for that, but ultimately, in answer to the OP's question, yes, you can make money, or even an income from spreadbetting.


P.S On another SB project I worked on, I looked at closing all but 5% of every day trade that was taken in the same direction as the main weekly trend, placing stoploss below/above the 3rd to last Weekly candle. There were various rules I added to the system over time, but it worked and the results were impressive. Over time, you can build quite a sizeable position in a particular market without having to use any margin, or risk an overall loss. I think it's a strategy that could benefit many day traders who are relatively new to spread betting, but for some reason, most wont entertain it.



I still don't quite get it. If you've been building accounts successfully for four years (or fourteen?), you should have enough confidence to scale up. Only taking a couple of positions a week will mean no hassle with spreadbet, so even if your percentage profit is much lower it won't be long before you're considerably richer than Croesus.
 
I still don't quite get it. If you've been building accounts successfully for four years (or fourteen?), you should have enough confidence to scale up. Only taking a couple of positions a week will mean no hassle with spreadbet, so even if your percentage profit is much lower it won't be long before you're considerably richer than Croesus.

I mess up trades when I scale up - simple as that. We all have psychological limitations when trading. Scaling up is one of mine.

Possibly my desire to be rich is so much that emotions overtake my rational decision making when risking large amounts of capital on a position. I suffered my biggest ever personal trading loss on 29th September 2008 when I was short on one of the biggest market drops in history, yet got stopped out through poor stop placement. That day, the market earned a lot of respect from me, and I've never put large amounts of money at stake on a single position since then. There is no need to. A single well considered £5 per point trade per week that delivers 150 points is adequate to pay bills and allow one to live comfortably. Anyone can achieve that, but many of us don't because we break the rules. Nobody knows when a terrorist attack, a flash crash, an FX intervention, or any multitude of events may take place. Everybody I've seen try to get rich quick in the markets has failed. Turning £500 into £2000 is not difficult because we are prepared to take calculated risks that we may not take with our life savings. Same reason as to why we can quickly quadruple a demo account balance in no time. Trying the same strategy with a £50k real pot is mental torture, unless £50k is a tiny % of your disposable income.

Most of us know we are capable of quadrupling £50k relatively quickly when using a proven system. But we also know the consequences if we fail.
 
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I mess up trades when I scale up - simple as that. We all have psychological limitations when trading. Scaling up is one of mine.

Possibly my desire to be rich is so much that emotions overtake my rational decision making when risking large amounts of capital on a position. I suffered my biggest ever personal trading loss on 29th September 2008 when I was short on one of the biggest market drops in history, yet got stopped out through poor stop placement. That day, the market earned a lot of respect from me, and I've never put large amounts of money at stake on a single position since then. There is no need to. A single well considered £5 per point trade per week that delivers 150 points is adequate to pay bills and allow one to live comfortably. Anyone can achieve that, but many of us don't because we break the rules. Nobody knows when a terrorist attack, a flash crash, an FX intervention, or any multitude of events may take place. Everybody I've seen try to get rich quick in the markets has failed. Turning £500 into £2000 is not difficult because we are prepared to take calculated risks that we may not take with our life savings. Same reason as to why we can quickly quadruple a demo account balance in no time. Trying the same strategy with a £50k real pot is mental torture, unless £50k is a tiny % of your disposable income.

Most of us know we are capable of quadrupling £50k relatively quickly when using a proven system. But we also know the consequences if we fail.
You talk about money management and yet your system about accumulating huge profit is telling a different story. Money management is still the same, whether you put £50 on the line or £50.000, although in percentage one might be risking less as the stakes increases. "Most of us know we are capable of quadrupling £50k relatively quickly when using a proven system", this statement I don't agree upon at all, unless you are taking huge amount of risk, a risk taking that will ultimately fail like it did for you in 2008, when apparently you had too muck at stake in relative to your capital.
Risk & Money Management is the most important aspect about trading that I like to get across when trading SB or DMA. This is important when trading SB as, trading with market makers involves more risk parameters compared to trading DMA. However, I agree on the fact that one might trade differently from a physiologically viewpoint of behaving as the stake increases.

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"Take control with Risk & Money Management"
 
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You talk about money management and yet your system about accumulating huge profit is telling a different story. Money management is still the same, whether you put £50 on the line or £50.000, although in percentage one might be risking less as the stakes increases. "Most of us know we are capable of quadrupling £50k relatively quickly when using a proven system", this statement I don't agree upon at all, unless you are taking huge amount of risk, a risk taking that will ultimately fail like it did for you in 2008, when apparently you had too muck at stake in relative to your capital.
Risk & Money Management is the most important aspect about trading that I like to get across when trading SB or DMA. This is important when trading SB as, trading with market makers involves more risk parameters compared to trading DMA. However, I agree on the fact that one might trade differently from a physiologically viewpoint of behaving as the stake increases.

____________
"Take control with Risk & Money Management"



Risk and Money management are important, but they can be 2 separate things. You can take high risk whilst using sound money management whilst also taking low risk but using poor money management.

I think my point was that we are physically capable of quadrupling £50k, but would not take that kind of risk as we possibly would were we trying to quadruple £500.
 
Risk and Money management are important, but they can be 2 separate things. You can take high risk whilst using sound money management whilst also taking low risk but using poor money management.

I think my point was that we are physically capable of quadrupling £50k, but would not take that kind of risk as we possibly would were we trying to quadruple £500.
This I don't understand, please elaborate by giving an example of the both. You can use TA to maybe get some kind of edge, but still you have the same kind of risk exposure.

____________
"Take control with Risk & Money Management"
 
This is a matter of opinion and a subject that many have different strong views on.

I don't approach a trade with a view that I'm only going to risk x% of my pot on this trade. I don't even consider the value of my pot in any given trade (obviously within reason - It would just be stupid to trade £10 per point with a £1000 balance). The risk is in the trade itself and the technical probability of that trade delivering a result.

I can't think of a simple way to put this without turning my post into another essay.

But, a quick hypothetical example. If I had a £300 pot and I took a £1 per point trade with a 100 point stop loss I am risking 33% of my pot on a single trade.

Most would agree that is very high risk, and many would say that is a guaranteed way to ruins.

But, that particular trading set-up has a historic statistically proven 95% probability of delivering a 300 point profit.

So now, how do you recalculate that risk against my overall money management?

Let's assume that trade fails and I'm stopped out for a £100 loss.

I now have £200 left in the pot, but low and behold, that exact same 95% probability trading set-up recurs so I take the same trade again.

The liklihood of losing two 95% probability trades in a row is very low. It's probably equal probability to observing sound risk and money management and having the market gap 300 points above/below your stop loss.

If I were to change my strategy to a risk favourable one and trade 50p per point with a 30 point stop loss on a £300 pot, therefore risking 5% of my pot, most would agree that is reasonably good (not great) risk management.

But if I took that trade on a set-up that only has 50% statistcal probability of delivering a profit, then suddenly my risk isn't quite so low.

It's because of these variations in assessing risk that I approach each trade on the merits and probability of the trade itself, not on the percentage of my account balance I'm putting at stake.

When you get into hedging strategies and protection it adds a whole new dimension to risk. You will inevitably have a large percentage of your pot value on margin, but you are also limiting your losses through your hedge. To me, that is sound money management.

So ultimately, my view is that if you apply sound money management to your pot, the risk aspect will look after itself.

I think it's a situation where many have strong views, but everybody also assesses risk differently, so no view is likely to be the holy grail, whilst every view is likely to be seen to have flaws by others.
 
This is a matter of opinion and a subject that many have different strong views on.

I don't approach a trade with a view that I'm only going to risk x% of my pot on this trade. I don't even consider the value of my pot in any given trade (obviously within reason - It would just be stupid to trade £10 per point with a £1000 balance). The risk is in the trade itself and the technical probability of that trade delivering a result.

I can't think of a simple way to put this without turning my post into another essay.

But, a quick hypothetical example. If I had a £300 pot and I took a £1 per point trade with a 100 point stop loss I am risking 33% of my pot on a single trade.

Most would agree that is very high risk, and many would say that is a guaranteed way to ruins.

But, that particular trading set-up has a historic statistically proven 95% probability of delivering a 300 point profit.

So now, how do you recalculate that risk against my overall money management?

Let's assume that trade fails and I'm stopped out for a £100 loss.

I now have £200 left in the pot, but low and behold, that exact same 95% probability trading set-up recurs so I take the same trade again.

The liklihood of losing two 95% probability trades in a row is very low. It's probably equal probability to observing sound risk and money management and having the market gap 300 points above/below your stop loss.

If I were to change my strategy to a risk favourable one and trade 50p per point with a 30 point stop loss on a £300 pot, therefore risking 5% of my pot, most would agree that is reasonably good (not great) risk management.

But if I took that trade on a set-up that only has 50% statistcal probability of delivering a profit, then suddenly my risk isn't quite so low.

It's because of these variations in assessing risk that I approach each trade on the merits and probability of the trade itself, not on the percentage of my account balance I'm putting at stake.

When you get into hedging strategies and protection it adds a whole new dimension to risk. You will inevitably have a large percentage of your pot value on margin, but you are also limiting your losses through your hedge. To me, that is sound money management.

So ultimately, my view is that if you apply sound money management to your pot, the risk aspect will look after itself.

I think it's a situation where many have strong views, but everybody also assesses risk differently, so no view is likely to be the holy grail, whilst every view is likely to be seen to have flaws by others.

so you are saying that with one of your setups you have a 95% probability of achieving 3R (100 pip SL 300 target). If you have truly achieved this over a large sample size I can confidently say you are one of the best traders if not THE best trader this planet has ever seen. I have seen other traders trade with 90%++ hit rate but their R has been in the 0.3 to 0.7 bracket. actually why beat around the bush you are actually god.
 
Major dutch,

Please note my post was clearly based on a hypothetical example.

But, it's also a fact that there are trading set-ups that have 95% historic statistical probabilities. I don't need to prove this, but take a look at the GS trading desk results of 2009 where less than 1 losing day per quarter was encountered.
 
Major dutch,

Please note my post was clearly based on a hypothetical example.

But, it's also a fact that there are trading set-ups that have 95% historic statistical probabilities. I don't need to prove this, but take a look at the GS trading desk results of 2009 where less than 1 losing day per quarter was encountered.

sure there is but it's all about the R. extreme example again - If i scalped for 1 pip with a 100 pip stop with the 20ma then I am sure I would achieve the 95% hit rate. I know of a trader with hit rate 95%+ (scratches not counted as losers) but the expectation is probably around 0.2R to 0.5R which is fookin good. I would suggest that if anyone can trade a hit rate of 95% on a 1R basis they have it more than made.
 
Ok, as a newcomer, should I be looking to say have 10 open positions at the same time and expect the majority to be down but rely on the winning trade to cover the losses? If so, what sort of starting capital is realistic and would forex be a better market to start in rather than shares or indices?

10 !!

Might be ok for some traders but to be honest the most I can accurately watch is three and most times a maximum of 2 open positions ??
 
Seriously, I think it's possible ,I have invested £200 during the first hours i made £600 main problem , greed! i wanted more quickly and was playing without any stop loss ( I know Silly) you can imagine the result. the best way for me : spend time in demo mode (a lot) ,fallow the market activities, don't fallow too much tracker choose few currencies, future and commodities, you like and stick on it. you will know how they react, some stock react quickly than other.
£200 /£300 is not enough to start really better if can its to start with £2000 ( I sincerely think and i'm like you a rookies), Avoid to put your eggs in the same basket !


I don't feel ashamed to loose £200 , just feel silly and purely incompetent !

How were you able to trade without any stoploss ??

Surely if you dont level one the SB company inserts its own ??
 
How were you able to trade without any stoploss ??

Well , I wasn't really realising the speed of reaction of the market at the time. This is the 2 main factors at that time , I think I as blindly guided by some kind greed momentum . Even if I was able to get the move on the market , I wasn't good enough to get out in time. with really No knowledge of the platform, you can guess the next..
I was far to be a trader and still far to be one. I took now a diferente approch , news , analysing , planning, acting. With far moreless loss to said none, but without kamikaze buy or sell, just to keep my sanity :devilish: .
 
Mistakes that I made that took me 2 years to eliminate are over trading and looking for positions that dont exist, combined with moving stop losses. That and the biggest no no trading against the trend......How many times have all of us at some point thought the market was about to reverse ??

I was picking "winners" 9 times out of 10 trades but the losing trade was overwhelming the winners......

Took me 9000 pounds until I realised it but money well spent with hindsight....
 
yes, basically you just have to get the trades correct.








so you are saying that with one of your setups you have a 95% probability of achieving 3R (100 pip SL 300 target). If you have truly achieved this over a large sample size I can confidently say you are one of the best traders if not THE best trader this planet has ever seen. I have seen other traders trade with 90%++ hit rate but their R has been in the 0.3 to 0.7 bracket. actually why beat around the bush you are actually god.
 
yes, basically you just have to get the trades correct.

YES YOU CAN , I CAN , EVERYBODY CAN ........:cheesy:

You only must trade 5 years the demo account , than you get big win and

you see , that after a month you lose all your money again ......:mad:

because money cant buy in your mind ....

Money you must stole or kill to get .....:devilish:

My tip : catch the egg ghost in the toilett before he gets your eggs.....

when you sit too long , you will get back****ed ......

have a nice trading :clover:
 
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