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NVP
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Stick with support and resistance no indicators.
What I base my trades off:
Chart example attached of a short setup in a rangebound market.
What I base my trades off:
If a pair is trending, wait for a pull back and a reversal bar and place a stop order in the prevailing trend direction.
- If the market is range bound, long at support and short at resistance if there is a valid reversal bar.
- Don't take trends in the middle of a range. If there's nothing, then don't trade.
- Look at percentage returns only, not pips gained. You can still lose money even if you have made a net positive pip gain (this is the main spruiking point for most signal based sites).
- Forget intraday timeframes.
- Journal every trade and review regularly. (Read Steenbarger's books for practical application)
Chart example attached of a short setup in a rangebound market.
Attachments
The point is how do you define that market is Trending or Range Bound? I am always amused when seeing such claims when somebody trades in trending market. Anybody can trade in the trending market providing that he knows its trending (its direction).
Range bound being when price is restricted betweentwo levels. Trending when this isn't occuring (higher highs, lower lows etc), standard technical analysis you would read about.
No point making it any more complicated than this, not sure what is so amusing if someone 'claims' to know a market is trending. It's not hard.
Knowing your rolling average hold time and some other basic statistics will always help too as for cues as to market environment.
Two charts, one which is trending and one which is range bound. Can be identified in about 30 seconds.
Attachments
dbphoenix
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Actually price is always trending in one interval or another, even if one has to zoom in to a tick chart. If price is making higher highs, it's trending upward. If one wants to take that for whatever reason and exit when the stride is broken, he then has to decide whether or not he's going to take the opposite side. If so, he may wind up scalping, which may not be what he wants to do. If he does, and he discovers that the new stride breaks at about the same level at which he entered the previous trade, he may suspect that he's in a range and elect not to trade further until price exits this range. But, technically, the moves from the lower limit of the range to the upper limit of the range are "trends", even if the range is only a few points wide. What is more important is what one decides to do with them.
Agreed. It's all a matter of interpretation, we all view markets differently which why trading is a zero sum game.
I guess it comes down to how one wants to approach trading. I outlined my approach in my initial post, it's what works for me and what I find comfortable.
dbphoenix
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Well, actually, it's not. But that's been argued elsewhere.
To be precise its negative sum game for all on the unlimitedly long run. But turning odds in your favor for 30-40 years (when you need to keep family, live your life, etc.) is quite possible what is Wall Street doing now
I would recommend you that you use 4 Hourly chart. Wait for a trend to be established, then wait for some retracement. Draw an anti trend line which will be towards retracement's direction. Once that anti Trend line is broken and confirmed, then take an entry. Set your stop loss below the candle which breaks the Trend line( bullish market). You will be able to set your take profit twice of the pips of your stop loss.
OK - so you say it is not. Just tell me where the mark-to-market gains of winners come daily after market close if not from the mark-to-market losses of the losers. Is anyone paying the winners besides the losers? If not, it is a zero-sum.
NVP
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" “The point is that, if there were signals that made a lot of sense that were very strong, they would have long ago been traded out. ... What we do is look for lots and lots, and we have, I don’t know, like 90 Ph.D.s in math and physics, who just sit there looking for these signals all day long. We have 10,000 processors in there that are constantly grinding away looking for signals.”"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-medallion-fund-became-finance-s-blackest-box
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-medallion-fund-became-finance-s-blackest-box
