Can anyone explain me the 14:15 EUR/USD sudden spike?

[tonegawa]

EUR/USD from 1.31005 to 1.31108

+103 pips instantly at 14:15. A vertical spike. I don't understand why.

I checked various news sites, but there is nothing special. Just the wait for FED's decisions.

Anyone knows why? :-0

 

[arabianights]

waterfield dug a pony, if you know what I mean... and I think you do

 

[Martinghoul]

14:15 Eastern time? If that's the case, there's this utterly insignificant decision, which gets published arnd that time.

 

[arabianights]

lol martin... surely no one that stupid?

 

[tonegawa]

So which part of these caused the spike?

------------------------------------------------------


Source Federal Reserve (latest release)

Measures Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other banks overnight;

Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year;

Next Release Sep 21, 2010

FF Notes The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the FOMC Statement which is focused on the future;

Why Traders
Care Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future;

Derived Via FOMC members vote on where to set the rate. The individual votes are published in the FOMC statement;

Also Called Interest Rates, Fed Funds Rate;

Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source Federal Reserve (latest release)

Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;

Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year;

Next Release Sep 21, 2010

FF Notes The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on.

Why Traders
Care It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes;

Also Called Interest Rate Statement, Fed Statement, Monetary Policy Statement;

Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

 

[Martinghoul]

I think more than one, Cap'n (btw, I did buy some buxls in the end).

 

[Martinghoul]

It's the part where they said that they'\re going to buy more bonds and that the recovery of the US economy is, basically, sh1te.

 

[arabianights]

I think more than one, Cap'n (btw, I did buy some buxls in the end).

oooh **** me you're right

I hope you did more than the predicted volume of our friend form childhood injection partners

 

[Martinghoul]

oooh **** me you're right

I hope you did more than the predicted volume of our friend form childhood injection partners

I did some size ("Massive" is my middle name, you see). 10 lots is all I got given at 20, sadly.

 

[arabianights]

quaking in their boots

 

[kalott]

well

i dont understand why the eurusd did fall starting yesterday ahead of the meeting

 

[arabianights]

dave just sent me this picture preview of his new sex tape.

(that is really him)

ffs

no it isn't

 

[arabianights]

Irrelevant though cause that ain't me, just a convincing look a like.

 

[arabianights]

Irrelevant though cause that ain't me, just a convincing look a like.

It is, however, oilgaytrader.

 

[Martinghoul]

well

i dont understand why the eurusd did fall starting yesterday ahead of the meeting

'Cause there was all sorts of not-so-happy news out of Ireland, primarily.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

It was just a technical move
The aud pulled back to yesterdays low
The gbp pulled back to yesterdays low
The eur pulled back to yesterdays low
The jpy fell to yesterdays low
The cad fell to yesterdays high
even the eur/gbp spike up 40 pips to yesterdays high
check em all and see what I mean

And people say technical analysis doesnt work.Guys it looked like one massive clearout to me that ****ed many traders and some silly article of news was used as the excuse.

 

[arabianights]

It was just a technical move
The aud pulled back to yesterdays low
The gbp pulled back to yesterdays low
The eur pulled back to yesterdays low
The jpy fell to yesterdays low
The cad fell to yesterdays high
even the eur/gbp spike up 40 pips to yesterdays high
check em all and see what I mean

And people say technical analysis doesnt work.Guys it looked like one massive clearout to me that ****ed many traders and some silly article of news was used as the excuse.

This is why trading ain't a science... fundamentalists like me can say why it happened... technical analysts can say why it happened... and neither can be falsified.

Oh, wait, technical analysts can make falsifiable predictions. And they tend to do no better than chance.

Oh.

 

[Martinghoul]

It was just a technical move
The aud pulled back to yesterdays low
The gbp pulled back to yesterdays low
The eur pulled back to yesterdays low
The jpy fell to yesterdays low
The cad fell to yesterdays high
even the eur/gbp spike up 40 pips to yesterdays high
check em all and see what I mean

And people say technical analysis doesnt work.Guys it looked like one massive clearout to me that ****ed many traders and some silly article of news was used as the excuse.

I see... How could I be so stupid?

So let me get this straight, this whole thing today had nothing to do with the silly article of news from the Fed, right? It was all in the charts and obvious well before any announcements, right? How much money did you make on this move then?

 

[Lord Flasheart]

I see... How could I be so stupid?

So let me get this straight, this whole thing today had nothing to do with the silly article of news from the Fed, right? It was all in the charts and obvious well before any announcements, right? How much money did you make on this move then?

You could do with taking the anger out of your voice. I was merely pointing out that all of those points were hit and it couldnt just be coincidence. I was not claiming to be some genius who predicted it,I was flat at the time. Clearly the news was the trigger, but the technical point was where the move ended.

 

[Martinghoul]

You could do with taking the anger out of your voice. I was merely pointing out that all of those points were hit and it couldnt just be coincidence. I was not claiming to be some genius who predicted it,I was flat at the time. Clearly the news was the trigger, but the technical point was where the move ended.

That wasn't anger, man. It was sarcasm, the lowest form of humor.

As to what points were hit, an ex-post analysis like yours is completely specious. I could have picked random points on the graph and claimed that my marvelous technical system predicted every single one of them. If I did that it wouldn't validate anything, apart from the fact that I am a genius at data-mining, as well as at drawing squiggly lines on a chart. I used to know a guy who would come over to a trader's desk, look at a chart of whatever the trader was looking at, pick some extreme high and lows and would say "Well, it's obvious, isn't it? You should have bought here (pointing to the lows), sold here (pointing to the highs), bought here, etc. It's obvious!" That's exactly what you're doing, innit?