Continuing Goldtrader's theme :
I use Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channel AND Momentum (using Bollinger Bands) on the same chart.
This I refer to as the
Volatility Squeeze Indicator
Bollinger Bands are a graphical representation of price volatility, shown as bands around a moving average. The distacne between the bands is calculated using 2 Standard Deviations, shown as one line above the MA , and one line below.
The formula is a bit complex, so please refer to:
www.futuresource.com and click Charts> Study Help> Bollinger Bands.
The
Keltner Channel is a volatlity envelope based on the Range High-to-Low daily
Momentum is the rate-of-change, or speed of a directional move in price.
I
use all three indicators on the chart . Method is as follows:
When The Bollinger Bands touch/enter the Keltner Channel, a
Volatility Squeeze is set-up. This will inevitably lead to a breakout, and sharp move upon expansion of the bands (volatility) once again.
To determine the LIKELY direction of the breakout, I use MOMENTUM DIVERGENCE to price.
If there is BULLISH MOMENTUM DIVERGENCE + VOLATILITY SQUEEZE -
GO LONG
there is BEARISH MOMENTUM DIVERGENCE + VOLATILITY SQUEEZE -
GO SHORT
Other qualifying factors sometimes come into consideration, such as the outcome of recent 'Squeezes' and the prevailing market trend on the time-frame in question.
As an example, here is MAY NY COFFEE 30-min Chart (I only trade commods these days)
At the area highlighted, we have :
1) A VOLATILITY SQUEEZE (Bollinger Bands touching Keltner channel) AND
2) BULLISH MOMENTUM DIVERGENCE (Price makes equal low, Momentum makes Higher Low)
The Buy signal was thus given, and the market duly broke out NORTH, and is now over 1000 points higher in 2-3 days.
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