Hi Paul
I was thinking of horse racing specifically, although if Bollinger Bands work in predicting price movements, presumably they could be used to determine price movements in any sport that's not in-play and where price movements aren't particularly volatile.
Regards
Jeff
I was thinking of horse racing specifically, although if Bollinger Bands work in predicting price movements, presumably they could be used to determine price movements in any sport that's not in-play and where price movements aren't particularly volatile.
Regards
Jeff
TheBramble
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BBs specifically measure volatility. If there's low volatility the bands will constrict and if you’re using them to ‘predict’ prices, you’ll potentially get whipsawed all over the place in those conditions.
No indicator ‘predicts’ future price movement. Except maybe one…
On a tangential note, I know a chap who has been trading betfair since startup, he and his business partner have had trading software written initially to arb, and subsequently modified to scalp. They operate out of offices and have a very professional approach to this. He’s not a t2w member (AFAIK). Chatting with him recently, his position is that the on-line betting exchanges have been virtually overrun by bookies making use, understandably, of the facilities open to them. It’s altered the on-line betting game out of all recognition and they’re finding it tough to trade.
If you think spoofing on LevelII is tough, by all accounts, the stunts the big betting boys pull make LII totally transparent! Gradually tugging the lay to then hit the back and vice versa have always apparently been part of the pros arsenal, but it seems the volume that comes into play to pull prices around deliberately before being flipped happens far too quickly and frequently for safety.
He may well just have a crap bit of software and lost his edge. Happens. Be interested in others’ opinions on this.
I had a brief look at this market a couple of years or so back and found the volume (then) too low to warrant sustained attention, but certainly the possibility for limited trading opportunities was available in the higher class meetings (only looked at horses).
Whatever your opinion of betting and bookies, you have to hand to these guys, they’re no fools. You’re up against stiff competition. Don’t forget, bookies have been running odds and books far longer than any organised financial markets exchange.
No indicator ‘predicts’ future price movement. Except maybe one…
On a tangential note, I know a chap who has been trading betfair since startup, he and his business partner have had trading software written initially to arb, and subsequently modified to scalp. They operate out of offices and have a very professional approach to this. He’s not a t2w member (AFAIK). Chatting with him recently, his position is that the on-line betting exchanges have been virtually overrun by bookies making use, understandably, of the facilities open to them. It’s altered the on-line betting game out of all recognition and they’re finding it tough to trade.
If you think spoofing on LevelII is tough, by all accounts, the stunts the big betting boys pull make LII totally transparent! Gradually tugging the lay to then hit the back and vice versa have always apparently been part of the pros arsenal, but it seems the volume that comes into play to pull prices around deliberately before being flipped happens far too quickly and frequently for safety.
He may well just have a crap bit of software and lost his edge. Happens. Be interested in others’ opinions on this.
I had a brief look at this market a couple of years or so back and found the volume (then) too low to warrant sustained attention, but certainly the possibility for limited trading opportunities was available in the higher class meetings (only looked at horses).
Whatever your opinion of betting and bookies, you have to hand to these guys, they’re no fools. You’re up against stiff competition. Don’t forget, bookies have been running odds and books far longer than any organised financial markets exchange.
Trader333
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There are certainly ways to make money on Betfair but the weight of money approach that is akin to Level II is no longer an option precisely for the reasons Tony has just given. However, I do know of people making a very good profit and they use the fact that Bookies are banging so much business through Betfair as a measure of what actions to take and when. This is not a trading type approach and is quite clever in the way it works but so far it is doing well and the more that Bookies put business through Betfair the more robust their method will become. Also in my view Bollinger Bands would be of no use at all in this market.
Paul
Paul
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Hi Tony
Firstly, I think with hindsights 'indicates' would have been a better word for me to use than 'predicts'.
Whilst Bollinger Bands to measure volitility, surely they also show when prices have strayed out of the price range within which previous trading would suggest they should operate. Surely this would suggest that a 'bounceback' is likely to occur, as aberrations are, by definition, uncommon (I believe that the Bollinger Bands measure the standard deviation within which 95% of trades occur).
Incidentally, one system I came across recently, for trading on horse races on Betfair, advocates waiting for times when the price graph shoot upwards by 45 degrees, and then placing a back bet when the last price traded shoots above the Bollinger Band and the weight of money suggests the price is about to turn. It is uncanny how often this is exactly when prices do turn. The author advises ceasing trading 5 minutes before the start of the race, as he feels that just before the race the prices become too volatile for the system to work.
What is the indicator that predicts future price movement?
I'm surprised the arrival of the bookies has made it hard to trade. Whilst it might be hard to spoof those guys, I would have thought the extra money they put in the market would make it easier to get large bets matched.
Regards
Jeff
Firstly, I think with hindsights 'indicates' would have been a better word for me to use than 'predicts'.
Whilst Bollinger Bands to measure volitility, surely they also show when prices have strayed out of the price range within which previous trading would suggest they should operate. Surely this would suggest that a 'bounceback' is likely to occur, as aberrations are, by definition, uncommon (I believe that the Bollinger Bands measure the standard deviation within which 95% of trades occur).Incidentally, one system I came across recently, for trading on horse races on Betfair, advocates waiting for times when the price graph shoot upwards by 45 degrees, and then placing a back bet when the last price traded shoots above the Bollinger Band and the weight of money suggests the price is about to turn. It is uncanny how often this is exactly when prices do turn. The author advises ceasing trading 5 minutes before the start of the race, as he feels that just before the race the prices become too volatile for the system to work.
What is the indicator that predicts future price movement?
I'm surprised the arrival of the bookies has made it hard to trade. Whilst it might be hard to spoof those guys, I would have thought the extra money they put in the market would make it easier to get large bets matched.
Regards
Jeff
Trader333
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It is not about getting bets matched it is about the fact that to make a profit using an exchange for trading requires sustained movement in one direction. With the bookies jumping on board there is massive whipsaw which for traders is the worst possible scenario.
Sorry I am not at liberty to do this.
Paul
TheBramble
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Gets my vote. Always. LOL.Firstly, I think with hindsights 'indicates' would have been a better word for me to use than 'predicts'.
There is a tendency to assume that moves outside the Bollie envelope are less likely and therefore they represent some kind of barrier to movement beyond or outside. You only need to look at what happens to (a) the width of the bands as volatility increases and (b) the slope of the individual channel lines as volatility changes and price moves, to understand that the bands ‘catch up’ with price action more often than the price is ‘pulled back’ into the bands. One of the initial intents of the developer of these bands was to confirm trending by just such a move outside the band. So your assumption is a common one and largely brought about by the visual imperative of imagining most of the price action ‘stayed within’ the bands by looking at the past relationship between them – rather than seeing it as it developed on the hard right edge with the bands more uniformly ‘responding to’ the changing volatility and price action by changing their width and direction (deviation) to accommodate the reality of the changing price and volatility.
If you have your BB set to 2SD then it will measure approx. 95.44% for normally distributed data. To be clear, this is measuring where 95.44% of prices HAVE fallen, not WILL fall.
I’ve called it the Retrospector. I’ll send you a PM with the details.
I Agree. I also see extra volume would in principle be a good thing. Volume = Liquidity. But if the majority of that volume is used in a manipulative manner, you’re unlikely to benefit as much as if the Volume were uniformly spread.
simcom
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I agree with you in the sense that it is much more difficult now, but I wouldn't say that it was no longer an option. I still use it successfully, and granted it's nowhere near as good as it was a few years ago, it's still not a bad method if used with discipline.
Having said that, the other method you refer to sounds like it has more long-term potential bearing in mind the current circumstances regarding the bookies.
