Bob Volman Price Action Scalping

[cha-ching]

Re: Using Ninja Trader

Hi. This is for those who want to SIM using NinjaTrader.

Ninjatrader keeps a database of market replay data on their servers, and anyone using NinjaTrader has access to it. I just checked, and they do have EUR/USD. I think they keep up to a years worth of data for the popular instruments.

They have some youtube videos showing how to download the data and others on how to use the replay feature.

To get the replay data:
Start NinjaTrader, but don't connect to any data servers.
Go to-> File->Utilities->Download Replay Data
You will get a popup window.
Under Type -> select Currency
Name is: EURUSD
You only need the L1 data for the replay.
Unfortunately you have to go through this process for each day you want to download, but with this data you can replay it as though it's real time.

Hope this info helps

Thanks. Seems we cannot export the market replay data? I just picked a week's data and compared with ProRealTime. Seems a 25 tick chart from NinjaTrader's market replay data is approximately equivalent to a 70 tick chart from ProRealTime.

 

[vanica]

Thought I should spend couple of minutes away from the chart because clearly I got a bit too active in the market after yesterday's increased volatility. The DD setup was a bit aggressive because it wasn't clear to me whether the preceding move down, which went through all the range support, had enough fuel left. I saw some pause at 50level so thought entering this trade with sharp trailing was an ok idea. I got out at my entry price on the pullback. The second trade was better in terms of context/setup quality, but I have doubts about my trade management. I didn't get fill at 10ticks and was hoping for a new lower tipping point but the pullback just didn't want to break down. I put my bid at my entry price for a scratch again and was shocked to see that massive bar smashing prices lower and taking me out. My stop was just couple of prices away from where the market was trading when I decided to scratch my position. At that point, considering the fact that market did go 10 prices in my favor and how strong the pullback was, I just didn't think probability of success was still on my side. Not sure how this sort of decisions will affect my long-term performance though. The third trade was clearly a mistake as the breakout didn't go far enough.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

Can anybody tell me where are the setups today?

 

[cha-ching]

My trade today. Please comment if you think I read the overall picture wrong and anything else.

 

[vanica]

My trade today. Please comment if you think I read the overall picture wrong and anything else.

Yeah, was thinking about this one as well. Wasn't sure about the strength of trend generally. Move down was a breakout from the range, so it was hard to determine whether it'll continue lower at once (which is something you expect taking with-trend setups).

 

[BLS]

My trade today. Please comment if you think I read the overall picture wrong and anything else.

I basically took the same trade. I figured I might as well try to ride out the momentum to the downside. I meant to enter as a DD but I got careless and entered it as an FB instead, which was rather aggressive. I decided to tighten up the stop when momentum stalled above the 20 level.

Can anybody tell me where are the setups today?

Not much on my end either. There was one possible trade that worked out but I wasn't too sure about it so I skipped it. Tell me what you think about it (I would like to hear from other people as well).

 

[vanica]

Not much on my end either. There was one possible trade that worked out but I wasn't too sure about it so I skipped it. Tell me what you think about it (I would like to hear from other people as well).

I wouldn't feel comfortable with the way it broke out. Trying to focus on more easy to spot trades at the moment. Thought that pressure was a bit two-sided as the flag variant continuation was still possible.

 

[shotgun77]

My trade today. Please comment if you think I read the overall picture wrong and anything else.

I think it may be too early and also the 20 level might be a problem.
See chart 43-21 where he doesn't like the continuation because no real test of support (resistance in your case).

See chart 39-16 where he doesn't like the continuation because it is at a low and into a 50 level -- in your case a 20 level.

 

[BLS]

Thought I should spend couple of minutes away from the chart because clearly I got a bit too active in the market after yesterday's increased volatility. The DD setup was a bit aggressive because it wasn't clear to me whether the preceding move down, which went through all the range support, had enough fuel left. I saw some pause at 50level so thought entering this trade with sharp trailing was an ok idea. I got out at my entry price on the pullback.

The DD trade looks good to me. The pullback tested a previous low which happened to coincide with the 20EMA. I think Bob says it's not our job to figure when a trend is going to end so we should just take valid with trend trades as we see them. The market wanted to test the 40 level but we could

The second trade was better in terms of context/setup quality, but I have doubts about my trade management. I didn't get fill at 10ticks and was hoping for a new lower tipping point but the pullback just didn't want to break down. I put my bid at my entry price for a scratch again and was shocked to see that massive bar smashing prices lower and taking me out. My stop was just couple of prices away from where the market was trading when I decided to scratch my position. At that point, considering the fact that market did go 10 prices in my favor and how strong the pullback was, I just didn't think probability of success was still on my side. Not sure how this sort of decisions will affect my long-term performance though.

It sucks but it happens. I think long term it's better to stick with the tipping point because it'll help keep you sane. I used to drive myself nuts trying to figure out where best to bail because I saw a trade faltering and wanted to book some profit. I still drive myself nuts from time to time but I try my best to remind myself that the tipping point is there to relieve me of my anxieties (some of them anyway).

 

[shotgun77]

Not much on my end either. There was one possible trade that worked out but I wasn't too sure about it so I skipped it. Tell me what you think about it (I would like to hear from other people as well).

I think it was good to skip. I'd think the bear move needed more time before bulls entered in force. But I guess the bulls wanted to test that break and/or 20 level.

 

[BLS]

I think it may be too early and also the 20 level might be a problem.
See chart 43-21 where he doesn't like the continuation because no real test of support (resistance in your case).

See chart 39-16 where he doesn't like the continuation because it is at a low and into a 50 level -- in your case a 20 level.

I was thinking more along the lines of 43-10 and 41-14 when I took that trade but looking back the downward pressure was more pronounced in 43-10 than it was in today's charts. Perhaps today's the trade was rather aggressive and better skipped given the conditions.

edit: added charts for comparison and convenience

 

[shotgun77]

@BLS
I did think of 43-10 too because it does look similar. In 43-10 and 41-14, you'd be taking it as a BB in a trend. Whereas today, I don't know. I was looking at it as an arb in a range type day. Did you and others see it as a BB/flag in a trend?

 

[cha-ching]

@BLS
I did think of 43-10 too because it does look similar. In 43-10 and 41-14, you'd be taking it as a BB in a trend. Whereas today, I don't know. I was looking at it as an arb in a range type day. Did you and others see it as a BB/flag in a trend?

I did realize later it was a break from a range (which was quite far back) as vanica pointed out. I was concerned about that big bear bar (7:40 on BLS's chart) taking out the false low earlier but since it's not at the end of the downtrend I ignored it. Not sure about the role the false low plays, guess I need to reread the chapter on unfavorable condition.

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

It was probably too agressive to aim for continuation simply because there was no trend, only a bunch of stop losses triggered after that sideways action got violently broken.

How much time per week (and on weekends) do you spend with trading related activities?

 

[cha-ching]

It was probably too agressive to aim for continuation simply because there was no trend, only a bunch of stop losses triggered after that sideways action got violently broken.

Yes I agree!

How much time per week (and on weekends) do you spend with trading related activities?

Ideally I want to trade 4 hours per day (8 - 12 noon, my time zone is EST). Another 4 to 6 hours during the afternoons and evenings to review and learn and do market replay or bar-by-bar simulation. On weekends I hope I could spend a total of 4 to 6 hours to learn. So it's a total of about 50 hours per week. I spent far less than that for the past two months for various reasons but I'll be getting there soon.

 

[vanica]

Morning trade. I guess my first successful ARB ever.

 

[shotgun77]

Morning trade. I guess my first successful ARB ever.

Good tipping mgm!

 

[stehlikpetrmsncom]

A difficult week in my opinion. Just when I thought I might be finally able to reap profits from the markets I end up the week with losses again. How did you do this week?

 

[vanica]

Another ARB. Generally don't have any confidence in trading the breakout-pullback-type ARBs, but for some reason this one looked not too bad. I didn't buy it where the arrow is on the chart, but on the pullback to the same price. Maybe that big green bar made me believe a bit more. Anyway, 5min before the data decided not to wait for my stop to be hit so exited earlier.

 

[vanica]

A difficult week in my opinion. Just when I thought I might be finally able to reap profits from the markets I end up the week with losses again. How did you do this week?

If the lack of tradable setups makes things more difficult, then this week was definitely hard to trade. On the other hand, personally for me it made me more picky and focused on the "good" setups. Possibly slower environment is beneficial for less experienced traders, me included, because it becomes not that easy to overtrade. Not sure I can make any conclusions or should pay attention to statistics of results. At this point I feel I need to spend much more time in front of the screen trading before I can analyze my performance accurately.