best fx pair to trade in evening?

[munchiedude]

hi all,

just wondered what are the best fx currency pairs to trade in the evenings, say 5pm - 12am GMT?

considered the eur/usd as it is usually the cheapest to trade however, it does go fairly quiet around the times specified above.

factors i am currently taking into account includes cost of dealing, evening volatility etc.

my aim is to scalp/day trade 1 selected pair but only in the evenings.

anyone suggest any ideas?

 

[shadowninja]

Just because something's quiet, it doesn't mean it's bad to trade it - just need to figure out the best way of doing it. Volatility isn't always a good thing - for instance, I've avoided Aussie like the plague recently as it's just moving too fast for my liking. Same for gold.

 

[Doomberg]

I like the EUR/USD at any time, even middle of the night sometimes

 

[munchiedude]

thanks for your feedback. just taking an example of last night, the eur/usd at one point became so flat, it was +/- 5-10 pips. in this tightly ranging environment, what would be best approach? one would assume scalping on the basis of trading within range or perhaps trading/fading breakouts, however it is fairly flat for that with hardly any breakouts. with so little pippage(?) movement, i'm inclined to scalp with tight stop loss and low take profit target. would this be a sensible approach?

as i feel inclined to trade in trends rather than range, would there be a better currency pair that trends in the evening that i could trade?

 

[cmmichaels]

thanks for your feedback. just taking an example of last night, the eur/usd at one point became so flat, it was +/- 5-10 pips. in this tightly ranging environment, what would be best approach? one would assume scalping on the basis of trading within range or perhaps trading/fading breakouts, however it is fairly flat for that with hardly any breakouts. with so little pippage(?) movement, i'm inclined to scalp with tight stop loss and low take profit target. would this be a sensible approach?

as i feel inclined to trade in trends rather than range, would there be a better currency pair that trends in the evening that i could trade?

I would be interested to know how you get on I basically do the same thing at the moment after work a mixture of real trades and demo trades when I'm not sure. From what I've seen USD/JPY has a tighter range anyway but can slow down massively, the only trading strats I know at the moment are using the fib from last weeks high/low and trading the retracements I normally look for a double test of a level as well also trying to look for a range on the 15m and trading the range or breakout but I look across all pairs I don't think I would get many set ups on 1 pair but I'm still learning.

 

[pipsurfer56]

I would say as well that it does not matter so much what pair. If you are looking for more volume the AUD and JPY will have the most volume.

 

[counter_violent]

hi all,

just wondered what are the best fx currency pairs to trade in the evenings, say 5pm - 12am GMT?

considered the eur/usd as it is usually the cheapest to trade however, it does go fairly quiet around the times specified above.

factors i am currently taking into account includes cost of dealing, evening volatility etc.

my aim is to scalp/day trade 1 selected pair but only in the evenings.

anyone suggest any ideas?

Really not sure why you would want to trade forex at these times. As a rule of thumb you would filter to trade currencies relative to their respective world time zones. So considering that you would only be starting your trading activities in the second half of the US session, then it may make sense to trade only in the direction of the established trends of the day. Alternative to this would be to trade the US index's from say 6pm until close of play. There are plenty of decent moves to be had after 7pm. Whatever you decide, you absolutely must keep an eye on current volatility and take this into account regarding position size and price ranges which at the moment are huge.

 

[cmmichaels]

Really not sure why you would want to trade forex at these times. As a rule of thumb you would filter to trade currencies relative to their respective world time zones. So considering that you would only be starting your trading activities in the second half of the US session, then it may make sense to trade only in the direction of the established trends of the day. Alternative to this would be to trade the US index's from say 6pm until close of play. There are plenty of decent moves to be had after 7pm. Whatever you decide, you absolutely must keep an eye on current volatility and take this into account regarding position size and price ranges which at the moment are huge.

Hello Counter Violent I'll just say I'm a big fan of your work always enjoy reading your posts so cheers for all your comments.

Do you think it would be better to focus on the US Indices as opposed to FX for trading these hours? With what I've learnt so far I don't spot as many entries on the Indices as I do with FX hopefully in time I'll learn more.

Why do you say after 7pm because of the increased volatility as the market begins to close for the day?

 

[Pazienza]

Have a look at US indices, you often get a lot of action in the last couple of hours (from 7pm GMT), and not infrequently from around 6pm as well.

 

[cmmichaels]

Have a look at US indices, you often get a lot of action in the last couple of hours (from 7pm GMT), and not infrequently from around 6pm as well.

Thanks for the info. I do try looking at the index as well I've done a couple of trades bit mental at the moment though. I was just reading your thread I like the analogy of round numbers and you don't arange to meet people at 12:13 or something that is a great of looking at it. I try and watch the round numbers anyway but I'll keep an eye out even more.

I was reading somemore can't remember where that the Russell is really good to trade never really look at it, to me DAX looks the best but I can't watch it because I'm at work tickling my boss' balls

 

[Pazienza]

Thanks for the info. I do try looking at the index as well I've done a couple of trades bit mental at the moment though. I was just reading your thread I like the analogy of round numbers and you don't arange to meet people at 12:13 or something that is a great of looking at it. I try and watch the round numbers anyway but I'll keep an eye out even more.

I was reading somemore can't remember where that the Russell is really good to trade never really look at it, to me DAX looks the best but I can't watch it because I'm at work tickling my boss' balls

Russell's fine, probably a bit jumpier than the others overall.

 

[munchiedude]

lol, i feel like my thread has been hijacked by CMMICHAELS! oi, get off my thread! lol (just kidin!)

the reason i trade at these times is largely due to me holding down a typical 9-5 job so trading during the day is not possible altho im sneaking in MT4 into the office comp....sshhh!

some good pointers made here, focus on US indices, and aus or jpy for max volume.

I've recently joined smart live markets and trading 10p/point on MT4 with a 12-20pip stop loss. just finished my first session tonight with the EUR/USD...cant say im up, lol, down £5. this trading thing is a steep learning curve!
y
on a very general note, any advice or tips to help a beginner on the way?

 

[Pazienza]

lol, i feel like my thread has been hijacked by CMMICHAELS! oi, get off my thread! lol (just kidin!)

the reason i trade at these times is largely due to me holding down a typical 9-5 job so trading during the day is not possible altho im sneaking in MT4 into the office comp....sshhh!

some good pointers made here, focus on US indices, and aus or jpy for max volume.

I've recently joined smart live markets and trading 10p/point on MT4 with a 12-20pip stop loss. just finished my first session tonight with the EUR/USD...cant say im up, lol, down £5. this trading thing is a steep learning curve!
y
on a very general note, any advice or tips to help a beginner on the way?

Honestly, if day trading is difficult due to other commitments, why not trade daily charts?

I know, I know, but it really doesn't have to be the death by boredom that everyone thinks. First, it is a lot easier as a noob - you have a lot longer to think, you don't have to worry so much about the intraday shenanigans and so on.

The key is to watch a lot of markets.

There's around 30 forex pairs that are reasonably tradeable, maybe 10 stock indices, commodities (metals, oil, wheat, corn, hogs, beans etc), interest rates, and pick 50 or 100 major stocks from the US, UK and Europe. With all that lot you should find enough good trades to keep you going.

 

[munchiedude]

thanks pazienza for your quick response and ideas, it certainly has given me food for thought.

i did forget to clarify a point...im not entirely a noob to the markets, im a broker during the day so watching and buying/selling shares is what i do but the forex playground is a new area for me. im keen on day trading over swing trading as do prefer to watch my positions live.

you do mention "find enough good trades"...i guess as a noob to trading, i assume a 'good' trade is a high probability trade? im s still in the early states but how would one differentiate from a good and bad trade?i.e. what should i be looking for? (now sounding like a total noob!)

 

[Pazienza]

thanks pazienza for your quick response and ideas, it certainly has given me food for thought.

i did forget to clarify a point...im not entirely a noob to the markets, im a broker during the day so watching and buying/selling shares is what i do but the forex playground is a new area for me. im keen on day trading over swing trading as do prefer to watch my positions live.

you do mention "find enough good trades"...i guess as a noob to trading, i assume a 'good' trade is a high probability trade? im s still in the early states but how would one differentiate from a good and bad trade?i.e. what should i be looking for? (now sounding like a total noob!)

Oh sorry, my mistake.

Well, there's no such thing of course as a "good" trade. But I guess the easiest way to think about it is this:

Find your method, whatever it is. Then begin by focussing on the most obvious set ups - the ones that really tick all the boxes, the ones that absolutely jump out at you. Then you can start to refine it from there (the most obvious are sometimes not the most obvious, if you see what I mean, but as you get more experienced working your own method you'll be able to refine it, focus on the key elements etc).

Sorry, that might not be much help, but it's what I've taught myself to do, and how I look at it.

 

[munchiedude]

Oh sorry, my mistake.

Well, there's no such thing of course as a "good" trade. But I guess the easiest way to think about it is this:

Find your method, whatever it is. Then begin by focussing on the most obvious set ups - the ones that really tick all the boxes, the ones that absolutely jump out at you. Then you can start to refine it from there (the most obvious are sometimes not the most obvious, if you see what I mean, but as you get more experienced working your own method you'll be able to refine it, focus on the key elements etc).

Sorry, that might not be much help, but it's what I've taught myself to do, and how I look at it.

thats a good start, thanks for that. In terms of method, ive been using MACD/STOX crossovers and placing stops near the prior strong sup levels. just tested it today and came across a bit of an issue which perhaps some thoughts or ideas could come in useful..

i believe my risk management needs refining but im ok with stop losses and maybe could fine tune the placement of these once i get going, but i stumble when it comes to profit taking...i.e. when to take profit. naturally i let my profits run, ideally looking for at least 1:1 risk reward but how much to let it run by sometimes gets me. any thoughts to how this should be done?

 

[Pazienza]

thats a good start, thanks for that. In terms of method, ive been using MACD/STOX crossovers and placing stops near the prior strong sup levels. just tested it today and came across a bit of an issue which perhaps some thoughts or ideas could come in useful..

i believe my risk management needs refining but im ok with stop losses and maybe could fine tune the placement of these once i get going, but i stumble when it comes to profit taking...i.e. when to take profit. naturally i let my profits run, ideally looking for at least 1:1 risk reward but how much to let it run by sometimes gets me. any thoughts to how this should be done?

I don't use any indicators, so I'm afraid I can't help there.

As far as taking profits, it's impossible to say, because it's so personal, different markets tend to work better with different things. For example, I like a simple, largely mechanical trailing stop on index futures intra day, but that might be totally wrong for someone else, or for a different market.

I honestly think you've just got to put the hours in here. Keep very good records of your trades as a matter of course. Now, also keep a spreadsheet of "what if" outcomes based on different exit methods. For example, a simple target based on R:R, a target based on something on the chart (S/R for example), fully discretionary, trailing out, scaling out etc etc.

The results should be very enlightening. For example, I never scale out, because my (very extensive) records showed me that I would have been better off taking full profit at my target area.

Like I say, it is very individual, there is no right or wrong. Scaling out might suit you perfectly, trailing might be a disaster etc etc.

 

[munchiedude]

I don't use any indicators, so I'm afraid I can't help there.

As far as taking profits, it's impossible to say, because it's so personal, different markets tend to work better with different things. For example, I like a simple, largely mechanical trailing stop on index futures intra day, but that might be totally wrong for someone else, or for a different market.

I honestly think you've just got to put the hours in here. Keep very good records of your trades as a matter of course. Now, also keep a spreadsheet of "what if" outcomes based on different exit methods. For example, a simple target based on R:R, a target based on something on the chart (S/R for example), fully discretionary, trailing out, scaling out etc etc.

The results should be very enlightening. For example, I never scale out, because my (very extensive) records showed me that I would have been better off taking full profit at my target area.

Like I say, it is very individual, there is no right or wrong. Scaling out might suit you perfectly, trailing might be a disaster etc etc.

thanks for the advice, im sure both myself and other noobie lurkers would find your advice useful.
im more than willing to put the legwork in to make it work and i have a realistic expectation that initially im going to lose more than i gain, ultimately the reason why i am starting with 10p/point!

in terms of record keeping, im wondering what sort of things would be useful to keep a record of and how detailed one should be with the records?

simply a matter of pips gained or lost in every trade? or as detailed as noting the time of trade?

 

[Pazienza]

thanks for the advice, im sure both myself and other noobie lurkers would find your advice useful.
im more than willing to put the legwork in to make it work and i have a realistic expectation that initially im going to lose more than i gain, ultimately the reason why i am starting with 10p/point!

in terms of record keeping, im wondering what sort of things would be useful to keep a record of and how detailed one should be with the records?

simply a matter of pips gained or lost in every trade? or as detailed as noting the time of trade?

Well, obviously I keep a spreadsheet of all the "book-keeping" information (risk, P/L, % P/L, date, contract blah blah). I also note things on there like stop size, direction, slippage if any and so on.

What I really meant was proper records of the trade that you can review and learn from. So I take an immediate screenshot at entry so I can look back at it and get the pre-hindsight view. Then one when it's all done so I can see how it all played out.

I also write a kind of journal entry - reasons for the trade, pros, cons, worries I had etc. Finally, a few days later I write a brief post-trade review.

The idea is I've got a comprehensive record of each trade so I can wring as much analysis out of it as possible.

 

[munchiedude]

thanks paz, its insightful for you to outline what you normally do for record keeping, thanks for sharing and i will adopt a similar approach to yours and maybe start a blog which could provide the running commentary of my journey as well as help on feedback.

from the sounds of it, you seem very experienced already in trading the fx?