Base Metals ?

[PeterTT]

Anyone else been riding this Base metal bull market? Nickel seems to have been the big one but consolidating for a while now. Copper then took over, but thats also lost a bit of consistancy, now it seems like Tin is the one. My favourite at the moment is Zinc for a test of its 1997 highs (1550).
Not the easiest market for outsider to get into as you have to trade 3 months forward rolling dates (on the LME) but has been some of my most profitable trades over the last 6 months. If anyone is interested I will post some charts later.

Peter

 

[DaveT]

I've not previously traded LME metals, but I do follow the charts and fundamentals.

The 3-month price structure is a little off-putting.

Peter, I would be interested to see your analysis.

 

[bgold]

Haven't traded any of them other than copper. Attached an alluminium chart with elliott wave counts. Ride isn't over yet!!

Keen to see your analysis.

 

[execute]

new

Hi all .. I am new to base metals .. would you provide me with some useful links for rec. , charting (inventory vs. prices)...general knowledge...etc.

thanks all

 

[PeterTT]

Hi all .. I am new to base metals .. would you provide me with some useful links for rec. , charting (inventory vs. prices)...general knowledge...etc.

thanks all

Difficult to trade as the market is mainly LME and the contracts are generally 3 month outrights. Copper is easier to trade through COMEX . I only really spreadbet them, so I do not "day trade" as the spreads tend to be a bit wide. IGindex and City index will quote spreadbets in them (they get quotes from market makers on the LME floor and just spread their price). A place to start is Sucden brokers

http://www.sucden.co.uk/metals2.html

Good Luck

Peter

 

[execute]

Difficult to trade as the market is mainly LME and the contracts are generally 3 month outrights. Copper is easier to trade through COMEX . I only really spreadbet them, so I do not "day trade" as the spreads tend to be a bit wide. IGindex and City index will quote spreadbets in them (they get quotes from market makers on the LME floor and just spread their price). A place to start is Sucden brokers

http://www.sucden.co.uk/metals2.html

Good Luck

Peter

Thanks PeterTT, well I am interested in LME base metals only because one of my clients want to, I am already doing well in forex. well I was told about the "lead" and how it more than doubled from $400 to $1000 during the last year, and still there's a room for all base metals to go up again. The client is very excited.

Anyway I will check suceden. Isn't it so strange that there's no way to get LME real time prices and charts. it seems very restricted. Even with a $2000 annual subscription to "Metal Bulletin" I still get a 30 minutes delay. so how on earth traders would place their orders if they don't get real time prices, news, and charts. for now it look such a harder market than Forex.

 

[PeterTT]

Try the LME website itself .. lotsof useful info there .. also it links to some other sites of brokers .. http://www.lme.co.uk/dataprices_distributors.asp

It is a real "insiders" market and I seem to be able to catch some nice moves over several days/weeks, but I would hate to try and daytrade it.

Peter

 

[minx]

Isn't it so strange that there's no way to get LME real time prices and charts. it seems very restricted. Even with a $2000 annual subscription to "Metal Bulletin" I still get a 30 minutes delay. so how on earth traders would place their orders if they don't get real time prices, news, and charts. for now it look such a harder market than Forex.

Get eSignal, they have LME prices......

 

[execute]

Thanks again Peter TT and you too minx .. I agree base metals market doesn't seem to be good for day trading strategies, or good with high leverage

 

[elliott]

Hi guys,

Base metals currently witnessing some huge fund liquidation. Copper, Ali, Nickel all suffering big losses. The markets seem to be holding at present but are way off the highs.
Fundamentally, Copper and Ali demand still outweighs production and should continue higher.......eventually. Nickel on the other hand has been artificially propped up by large Hedge fund buying and is in my opinion still over-valued.I would be looking for Nickel to average somewhere between $9,000-12,000 per ton in 2005.

Should you require any clarification on how the 3month prices work on LME please ask. In many cases the difference between the cash and 3month price can add value to your position.

Elliott.

 

[PeterTT]

Elliott .. Nice to see someone new posting here .. Have you any views on Lead? I bought some 3months yesterday so I got a good fill under 830 including my spreadbet costs. I agree regarding the backwardation of alot of the base metals adding extra value (one of my reasons for buying lead yesterday).

Peter

 

[fastnet]

Execute - trade all the above metals on the next desk. They are seem to do most of the business by telephone and only hedge with the LME. As far as I can assertain it's one of the few ''relationship'' type of markets left.

 

[minx]

I'd be really interested in finding out about trading LME products. I was looking at the website and it mentions the futures but when I went to the LME it was just people round the little circle trading for 5 or 10 mins per commodity. Is that just the cash mkt and where are the futures traded? Is it electronic? What are the liquidity and B/A spreads like? I love the way some of those metals move and would prefer to trade UK hours to NY hours.
Thanks
Minx

 

[elliott]

peterTT

Had a big sell off in Lead, but likeing it down at these levels. On most of the base metals now, we are getting to prices where it is attractive for consumers to start picking up material.
Although it looks like some of the hedge funds have unloaded, we are still seeingh tightness due to good demand.
Good demand from Japanese battery producers should help Lead re-test the $910-20 although now you have some daylight between your entry level and the current price, it may be an idea to run a stop, just in case some more fund liquidation comes in.

 

[elliott]

Minx,
Basically the benchmark contract traded in base metals is 90 days forward. For instance, we are trading for the18th of Jan 05 today. When a position is opened for a particular date, it must be closed for the same date. Therefore what happens is, you trade basis the 3month price and then adjust back to your entry date. This can be a little confusing to start but is easily picked up......with the help of a good broker of course!.
The market trades for 24hours a day like fx and when not trading on the exchange is quoted inter-bank.The exchange does operate a series of 'rings' with 5minutes for each contract sequencially. There are 2 sets of rings followed by a 'kerb' session where all contracts trade. Then this process is repeated.
The important thing to remember is that all dates and all contracts can be traded at ALL times of the day regardless of wether a ring or a kerb.
I hope this makes sense.
Elliott.