Barclay opportunity?

Pound foolish

Pound foolish

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Shares in Barclays fell to 98p on Friday 16th January 2009 prompting a late statement by the firm that profits are expected to be ABOVE analylists expectations.

Only five days earlier shares in the company were trading at 184.6 a fall of nearly 47% in the week.

my feeling is with Barack Obama's inaugrial speech and the reaction to the barclays positive early released profit news, this stock will rocket back early on. next week.
 
I know someone who bought £10k of RBS at 41.9p. Bargain! Went up to ~50p. He saw £3.5k profit... wanted to see 70p.

He's currently reeling now that it's 34p.
 
Problem is that nobody believes the profit figures. That is one of the reasons why banks will not lend to each other, the amount of so called "toxic assets" on the books cannot be properly valued. As the rating agencies originally rated these products AAA it is difficult for them to now say "all this crap is worthless" so the auditors go on the figures put in front on them.
 
UK Government are proposing putting £200 billion of guarantess for the bank's toxic debt.

Bank shraes will go up Monday and I think Barclays has the most scope for day traders.

I am not greedy, I learnt that lessen! so I will get out when they reach 150 next week, even though my heart says they could go as high as £165.
 
Last year I made £300,000 in profit and I will report this to share holders.
I will not tell them that I had £150,000 in bad dept right of's.
Also I will not mention the redundancey bill for this month of £75,000 as it has not been paid out yet.
Ho the profits have not taken into accout of the trading losses of £300,000 i had last year either.

So now dose the £300,000 profit sound good ?

The truth is most UK and USA banks has next to zero capital, if anyone believes other wise there fooling there selfs.
 
Buying shares because their prices are lower than they used to be has no rational basis in either TA or FA, its a strategy built on hope. Apart from any fundamental or geo-political news that might mark a reversal, even fundamentalists would agree that most share prices, once in motion, tend to continue in that direction. Look at Barclays chart, it hasn't been a safe buy since the turn of 06-07. But it has been a brilliant short, until to the shorting ban - this would have made far more than any buy on dips.

One of the main reasons for holding blue chip shares like banks in particular on a long-term basis is that they pay a decent dividend - don't count these chickens before your eggs are hatched, we might be seeing the largecap dividends taper away to virtually nil.
 
Could the drop in UK banks stocks be related to the fact that the shorting ban has been lifted, also what reason did BARC give for not talking money from UK government scheme instead paying some sheiks 14% annum also what happens to banks who do capital raisings ?. A good way to know which banks are the most riskiest is to check their Credit default prices also the banks paying the most money on deposit accounts is usually a sign of problems at the bank i.e., which companies where at the top of the deposit account best buy tables a few months ago ?? Was it the Iceland Banks?

To know if banks are good buys for long term we have to know if the housing market in UK and US has bottomed, also the biggest bluest chip bank in the world is suffering, Citigroup (check its chart, ticker C US listed) then how bad must it be for the smaller banks.
 
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FWIW I think RBS may be an interesting pull-back opportunity for Monday. It's trading out for range now, courtesy of the Barclays rout......
 
My personal opinion is that the shares dropped because of mounting fears that bank recapitalisation vol.2 may be necessary. If that does happen, the gov. will take stakes in institutions such as Barclays. These rescues come with conditions attached, which will limit the risky side of the business done by Barclays Capital and this ultimately translates back into smaller dividend payments. And why would investors want to pay good money for a stock that is (a) not paying great divs (b) part owned by and thus constrained by the gov.

But, despite that, I believe in the law of averages and think that Barclays will go up a little next week.

:)
 
Am I glad I didn't jump the gun and go long on these. Still I have no idea why the fall has been so steep Barclay posted a profit if I'm correct of 5.4Billion right? yet the value is still falling.
 
the value is still falling.....

'the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.' anon.

who buys in a downtrend?
wait till HH and HL appear?
 
blaser said:
Am I glad I didn't jump the gun and go long on these. Still I have no idea why the fall has been so steep Barclay posted a profit if I'm correct of 5.4Billion right? yet the value is still falling.
Click to expand...

Thats what I thought and was my rationale for the post (tip).

I am now sitting on a small paper loss (week's wages) and hoping (praying) for them to go back. i will not sell at half price so will wait for the proper trading figures next month and maybe even a dividend?

Another lessen learned me thinks.
 
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Trying to pick a bottom for a given share, especially when the market itself has not confirmed it has found its own bottom, is a high risk sport. We hear the winners brag about such triumphs when they work, all about their 'three-baggers' and their 'ten-baggers' and so on but nothing at all on the vast nmajority of such trades that are losers - and the level of loss on a diving share can be way beyond normal margins - in the case of a company potentially subject to nationalisation, it could be literally 100%.

If you're looking for a short-term technical correction, its a good idea to buy a share in the course of a downtrend. But I don't get the impression that's what people are doing with the banks here. Anyway, where is the TA signal for such trades?

If you're looking to buy a share with good fundamentals because of a beaten down price, i.e. for the longer term, why buy any share at all when all the major stock indices are showing the most bearish pictures, e.g. all have their prices falling, and their 50MAs are below their 200MAs. The most likely outcome is that the market will fall further and drag most shares down with it.

The FTSE100 price has been up and down through the 50MA over the last year but the 200MA has been in a downtrend since January 08, the 50MA having dived down through it by Christmas 07. At that time, whether you sold your shares or not, it was a firm signal to stop buying. I intend to not be a shareholder again until the 50MA is above a rising 200.
 
tar said:
T2W Day Trading & Forex Forums - View Poll Results
Click to expand...

Entering after a "pullback" gets 50% of the vote. if you to do this you could lose intial gains. In the meantime you are out of the market.

Better to watch the news look at trends and sense what is going to happen good or bad.

My "sure thing" was wrecked by the RBS dive and now every bank is thought of negatively.

there is still money to be made on day trades buying low and selling high of individual companies, just more risky in a falling market.

Long term two to three years those buying now will show the biggest returns.
 
Just to be clear, the 50% who voted for entering on a pullback voted for entering long on a pullback in an uptend: entering on a pullback in a downtrend would mean going in short.

I can't understand why would anyone buy a share that isn't rising, in a sector and market that also aren't rising, regardless of time scale.
 
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