Hi Stefcio, hopefully it will stay under that SMA, It looks like the area of 0.7717 will be broken now, so the next level to watch out for in my opinion will be the low from February 2nd at 0.7619 if that level will get broken as well, we'll be looking at the 61.8% Fib expansion at the area near 0.7504 - 0.7508. Just a thought.
I expect to be both buying and selling again this next week on an Intraday basis with the main idea of leaving sells on under 07760 /70 - with approx 55 / 60 being the critical area
I had favoured sells on my part stake swing trades after the first half of the week as long as we kept under 7780.
I took in total 5 scalp buys from the 7755- 60 area on Thursday evening and Friday morning - with the move going up in total approx 90 pips - although I had only 60+ with my exit on the last buy being at just after Midday Friday on thread number 38408 on my intraday blog -
After NFP news it was sells again with more added when we got under 7740 - but left none on over the weekend.
I actually made more money along with better RR's out my pre NFP buys then the sells afterwards - as all scalps on stops under 5 pips.
I plan to look at buying if we stay above 7680 / 95 and then its a case if we stay under 7755 / 60 more sells again.
If we breach under 7660 I will look at holding sells down to 7625 area with next supports at 7600. We then ideally need to stay under 7750 again for more attempts going lower under 7600 to mid 7500 area.
Everything changes for me back above 7780 - 7800 and 7850.
In a normal week i will take a minimum 6 trades on the AU and maximum say 20 with most scalp RR's being from 1 to 4 and swing ones of part stakes can be easily 10+ as still based on original 5 pip stops.
It ranks maybe 5th or 6th on my intraday FX pairs list with EJ / EA / EU and GU my main 4 pairs I intraday the most.
Are you aiming for the 50% fib retracement? I am looking at the daily chart on the AUD/USD and I'd be cautious about the 0.382 retracement level at 0.718 as there is a resistance created by the doji from the 22nd of November. Also let's remember that there is a strong downtrend in place.
Great to keep a log of all trades. There's always something to learn about this game, ways to improve.
If you're not wishing to post up here your methodology for AUD/USD trades, maybe at least whatever lessions being learned from the trades taken (both winners and losers, also the non-trades, the trades signalled but not taken)?
I think that the bulls are running out of the steam they rallied up earlier but got rejected by the short term trend line. My strategy is to wait and see what happens at those level 50-61.8% and then get into a short trade with a target to retest the previous support at 0.7070 (nice round number)