AUD/USD Trade Idea - 05.03.2015

[DavidKl]

Hi Guys

I would like to share a trading opportunity that is forming on the AUD/USD pair. On the daily chart the candles are forming an evening star right on the resistance level. The other very important fact is that this particular pattern is forming on top of the downtrend channel which is in play since September last year. I entered short on 0.7800 with my first target being 0.7717 nearest support level. I will close half a position at that level with therest of the position to capture any further downside. What do you think guys? It migh be a good opp. Let me know your thoughts.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi David

Love to share my thoughts on the AU .

I am more intraday ( short term ) but do leave swings on with stops in profit etc from my scalps

What is your stop size from your 07800 entry for your approx 80 -85 pip target ??

I have interim supports at 7742 to 7760 area and i would be buying in that area - but might only be short term scalps for 10 - 40 pip pullbacks

I understand why you have sold at any price under 7815 /20 and can see your reasoning

Good Luck with it and if we do go under 7740 then yes can see 7720 and 7700 area being on


Regards


F

 

[DavidKl]

Hi mate. My stop is currently set at 62 pips away at 0.7862 just above the resistance zone. I will move my SL to break even as soon as I hit my first target.

thanks David

 

[tomorton]

Getting into a nice trade here. I shorted this since the London close on Tuesday evening at 0.7772. At this point it was showing a very weak close below the preceding swing high, 26/02.

Nothing to show for it yet but hopeful - this is in close second place for most promising forex trend-following short, after EUR/USD (obviously).

 

[DavidKl]

Hi tomorton. What is your TP on that trade?

 

[tomorton]

I always initially put in a target at r:r 1:1 ahead of the trade in case my entry signal coincides with a spike in my favour. But we're well out into open water, no recent support levels to stop this going much lower. Its easy to see price respecting the downtrend channel but still reaching 0.76 by the end of the month. I'm trailing the stop lower as we go down and pushing the target but I would usually expect to be bored out of the position if we start to go sideways before being stopped out on either.

I don't mind banking the profit if we drift into a range, I can always get back in.

I don't normally speculate further out but beyond that, we might even see the 2008 lows around 0.6 within 6 months but little expectation at this stage of going much beyond that.

 

[stefcio2002]

I always initially put in a target at r:r 1:1 ahead of the trade in case my entry signal coincides with a spike in my favour. But we're well out into open water, no recent support levels to stop this going much lower. Its easy to see price respecting the downtrend channel but still reaching 0.76 by the end of the month. I'm trailing the stop lower as we go down and pushing the target but I would usually expect to be bored out of the position if we start to go sideways before being stopped out on either.

I don't mind banking the profit if we drift into a range, I can always get back in.

I don't normally speculate further out but beyond that, we might even see the 2008 lows around 0.6 within 6 months but little expectation at this stage of going much beyond that.

I will take short from the H4SMA200

On the monthly the pair broke a fib line support but trades at the SMA200 level with no clear idea where to go. Weekly and Daily are ranging.
H4 gives some clues with two bounces from H4SMA200. I will follow price action there.

 

[DavidKl]

I think that Non-Farm Payroll and US Unemployment rate just came in handy :clap:

 

[tomorton]

I think that Non-Farm Payroll and US Unemployment rate just came in handy :clap:

True we're going the right way but not half as well as we might have hoped.

My other $-related trades - short EUR/USD and long USD/JPY - going much better.

I thought I was being a bit conservative with my targets for this pair but just shows you should always trust your own TA.

 

[DavidKl]

Exactly I agree. Well 1st target hit, I now closed half of my position. Moved my SL to break even and will wait for the further downside movement. I can see your trades doing pretty well too... good luck tomorton.

 

[tomorton]

Heads up for economic announcements next week -
Thur 12/03 @ 0030GMT - Australian employment change for February: forecast is +15,000, last month was -12,200;
Also @ 0030GMT - Australian unemployment rate for Feb: forecast is 6.4%, unchanged.

If these releases come in as forecast, effects probably neutral - what do you think?

 

[tomorton]

I find these weekly clips a concise and usually accurate round-up for the major pairs.

 

[DavidKl]

Hi mate. I will have a quick look at them. I dont usually look at a lot of those as they might conflict with my views, if you know what I mean. but i will give it a quick look

 

[DavidKl]

Also, I think dailyfx weekly round ups are pretty informative in terms of the economy news and so on.

 

[stefcio2002]

Hi mate. I will have a quick look at them. I dont usually look at a lot of those as they might conflict with my views, if you know what I mean. but i will give it a quick look

In that case I got the same analysis lon gterm. As long as we are under ,8, betteer be a seller. Pleas enote that we are in the process of breaking down SMA200.

 

[ranina]

New here

Hi everyone, I'm new here t2w and my 1st posting.
Some great looking charts I see on this thread.
Please excuse me if my charts look upside down to everyone else?

AUDUSD just completed wave (iv) correction moving down to find new low.

 

[DavidKl]

Hi Stefcio, hopefully it will stay under that SMA, It looks like the area of 0.7717 will be broken now, so the next level to watch out for in my opinion will be the low from February 2nd at 0.7619 if that level will get broken as well, we'll be looking at the 61.8% Fib expansion at the area near 0.7504 - 0.7508. Just a thought.

 

[Forexmospherian]

AU - Intraday plans from the 9th March for next week.

Hi David

Love to share my thoughts on the AU .

I am more intraday ( short term ) but do leave swings on with stops in profit etc from my scalps

What is your stop size from your 07800 entry for your approx 80 -85 pip target ??

I have interim supports at 7742 to 7760 area and i would be buying in that area - but might only be short term scalps for 10 - 40 pip pullbacks

I understand why you have sold at any price under 7815 /20 and can see your reasoning

Good Luck with it and if we do go under 7740 then yes can see 7720 and 7700 area being on


Regards


F

Hi guys

I expect to be both buying and selling again this next week on an Intraday basis with the main idea of leaving sells on under 07760 /70 - with approx 55 / 60 being the critical area

I had favoured sells on my part stake swing trades after the first half of the week as long as we kept under 7780.

I took in total 5 scalp buys from the 7755- 60 area on Thursday evening and Friday morning - with the move going up in total approx 90 pips - although I had only 60+ with my exit on the last buy being at just after Midday Friday on thread number 38408 on my intraday blog -

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/dis...ng-calls-expert-retail-forex-trader-3841.html

After NFP news it was sells again with more added when we got under 7740 - but left none on over the weekend.

I actually made more money along with better RR's out my pre NFP buys then the sells afterwards - as all scalps on stops under 5 pips.

I plan to look at buying if we stay above 7680 / 95 and then its a case if we stay under 7755 / 60 more sells again.

If we breach under 7660 I will look at holding sells down to 7625 area with next supports at 7600. We then ideally need to stay under 7750 again for more attempts going lower under 7600 to mid 7500 area.

Everything changes for me back above 7780 - 7800 and 7850.

In a normal week i will take a minimum 6 trades on the AU and maximum say 20 with most scalp RR's being from 1 to 4 and swing ones of part stakes can be easily 10+ as still based on original 5 pip stops.

It ranks maybe 5th or 6th on my intraday FX pairs list with EJ / EA / EU and GU my main 4 pairs I intraday the most.

Good Luck to all trading it this next week

Regards


F

 

[csc2009]

Australia ANZ Job Advertisements: actual 0.9% compare with previous 1.3%.

 

[stefcio2002]

Here are my views on AUDSD for this week (youtube video).

I did not know I had such a strong accent....

AUDUSD trading plan