AUD/USD Trade Idea - 05.03.2015

DavidKl

Member
67 0
Hi Guys

I would like to share a trading opportunity that is forming on the AUD/USD pair. On the daily chart the candles are forming an evening star right on the resistance level. The other very important fact is that this particular pattern is forming on top of the downtrend channel which is in play since September last year. I entered short on 0.7800 with my first target being 0.7717 nearest support level. I will close half a position at that level with therest of the position to capture any further downside. What do you think guys? It migh be a good opp. Let me know your thoughts.
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
Hi David

Love to share my thoughts on the AU .

I am more intraday ( short term ) but do leave swings on with stops in profit etc from my scalps

What is your stop size from your 07800 entry for your approx 80 -85 pip target ??

I have interim supports at 7742 to 7760 area and i would be buying in that area - but might only be short term scalps for 10 - 40 pip pullbacks

I understand why you have sold at any price under 7815 /20 and can see your reasoning

Good Luck with it and if we do go under 7740 then yes can see 7720 and 7700 area being on


Regards


F
 

DavidKl

Member
67 0
Hi mate. My stop is currently set at 62 pips away at 0.7862 just above the resistance zone. I will move my SL to break even as soon as I hit my first target.

thanks David
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,422 1,347
Getting into a nice trade here. I shorted this since the London close on Tuesday evening at 0.7772. At this point it was showing a very weak close below the preceding swing high, 26/02.

Nothing to show for it yet but hopeful - this is in close second place for most promising forex trend-following short, after EUR/USD (obviously).
 

DavidKl

Member
67 0
Hi tomorton. What is your TP on that trade?
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,422 1,347
I always initially put in a target at r:r 1:1 ahead of the trade in case my entry signal coincides with a spike in my favour. But we're well out into open water, no recent support levels to stop this going much lower. Its easy to see price respecting the downtrend channel but still reaching 0.76 by the end of the month. I'm trailing the stop lower as we go down and pushing the target but I would usually expect to be bored out of the position if we start to go sideways before being stopped out on either.

I don't mind banking the profit if we drift into a range, I can always get back in.

I don't normally speculate further out but beyond that, we might even see the 2008 lows around 0.6 within 6 months but little expectation at this stage of going much beyond that.
 

stefcio2002

Junior member
19 3
I always initially put in a target at r:r 1:1 ahead of the trade in case my entry signal coincides with a spike in my favour. But we're well out into open water, no recent support levels to stop this going much lower. Its easy to see price respecting the downtrend channel but still reaching 0.76 by the end of the month. I'm trailing the stop lower as we go down and pushing the target but I would usually expect to be bored out of the position if we start to go sideways before being stopped out on either.

I don't mind banking the profit if we drift into a range, I can always get back in.

I don't normally speculate further out but beyond that, we might even see the 2008 lows around 0.6 within 6 months but little expectation at this stage of going much beyond that.

I will take short from the H4SMA200

On the monthly the pair broke a fib line support but trades at the SMA200 level with no clear idea where to go. Weekly and Daily are ranging.
H4 gives some clues with two bounces from H4SMA200. I will follow price action there.
 

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tomorton

Legendary member
8,422 1,347
I think that Non-Farm Payroll and US Unemployment rate just came in handy :clap:


True we're going the right way but not half as well as we might have hoped.

My other $-related trades - short EUR/USD and long USD/JPY - going much better.

I thought I was being a bit conservative with my targets for this pair but just shows you should always trust your own TA.
 

DavidKl

Member
67 0
Exactly I agree. Well 1st target hit, I now closed half of my position. Moved my SL to break even and will wait for the further downside movement. I can see your trades doing pretty well too... good luck tomorton.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,422 1,347
Heads up for economic announcements next week -
Thur 12/03 @ 0030GMT - Australian employment change for February: forecast is +15,000, last month was -12,200;
Also @ 0030GMT - Australian unemployment rate for Feb: forecast is 6.4%, unchanged.

If these releases come in as forecast, effects probably neutral - what do you think?
 

DavidKl

Member
67 0
Hi mate. I will have a quick look at them. I dont usually look at a lot of those as they might conflict with my views, if you know what I mean. but i will give it a quick look
 

stefcio2002

Junior member
19 3
Hi mate. I will have a quick look at them. I dont usually look at a lot of those as they might conflict with my views, if you know what I mean. but i will give it a quick look

In that case I got the same analysis lon gterm. As long as we are under ,8, betteer be a seller. Pleas enote that we are in the process of breaking down SMA200.
 

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