AUD/USD Long near support area!!!

inakocibelli

Junior member
16 0
AUD/USD dropped after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its inflation views in its statement of Monetary Policy. The pair is coming into historical 50% Fibonacci level, another indication of an over-sold pair is the RSI which is located at 30 number area.
Entry is at 0.73250 with the 4hr close being above the entry number. If the 4hr candle closes I will then exit the trade as that will indicate a further decline. Profit is at 100 pips (0.74250)
:)
 

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fxstrategist

Established member
582 15
Audusd

it could retrace to the upside and give a long entry, but the trend is still bearish, it may continue lower before retracing.
 

Oscar Reed

Senior member
2,060 593
Just sell it on the way back up.
Simple.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 per cent, effective 4 May 2016. This follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.
The global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected, with forecasts having been revised down a little further recently. While several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China's growth rate moderated further in the first part of the year, though recent actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term outlook.
Commodity prices have firmed noticeably from recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.
Sentiment in financial markets has improved, after a period of heightened volatility early in the year. However, uncertainty about the global economic outlook and policy settings among the major jurisdictions continues. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.
In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom. GDP growth picked up over 2015, particularly in the second half of the year, and the labour market improved. Indications are that growth is continuing in 2016, though probably at a more moderate pace. Labour market indicators have been more mixed of late.
Inflation has been quite low for some time and recent data were unexpectedly low. While the quarterly data contain some temporary factors, these results, together with ongoing very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, point to a lower outlook for inflation than previously forecast.
Monetary policy has been accommodative for quite some time. Low interest rates have been supporting demand and the lower exchange rate overall has helped the traded sector. Credit growth to households continues at a moderate pace, while that to businesses has picked up over the past year or so. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.
In reaching today's decision, the Board took careful note of developments in the housing market, where indications are that the effects of supervisory measures are strengthening lending standards and that price pressures have tended to abate. At present, the potential risks of lower interest rates in this area are less than they were a year ago.
Taking all these considerations into account, the Board judged that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting.
 

Oscar Reed

Senior member
2,060 593
Short bet's placed, see if I can pick some shorts up on Monday.
The inflation number and rate cut came has a big surprise.
And is a game changer.
Before we were looking at no rate cuts in Australia this year. with possible rate rises late next year.
Now we looking at another rate cut this year with no rises next year.
With the US having two more rates rises this year, that closes the yield big time.
That give's me the reason to sell now, just need to find where the punters will sell now.
And mange risk with size.

What can change this the US going into recession next year with rate cut's.
Looking at what happened in New Zealand this is highly likely.
 

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Oscar Reed

Senior member
2,060 593
Only picked up one short last week.
Steady trend down and not much to sell into.
China data will see a gap lower at the open.
So load some more shorts at lower prices.
If I can't fill these this week might have to give up and not chase.
Bit of Aussie and US data this week might see something to sell into.
 

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fxstrategist

Established member
582 15
Audusd

The AUDUSD may pullback to the 0.7300 level, which could act as resistance. The price may go back down to its bearish trend.
 

dianajs

Established member
533 8
The AUDUSD may pullback to the 0.7300 level, which could act as resistance. The price may go back down to its bearish trend.
I think it might even rise to 0.7315 - 0.7320 before it starts falling again. There is no signal for a reversal though.
 
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Oscar Reed

Senior member
2,060 593
Been selling above .7320
Watch for jobs data on Thursday.
Plenty of sell areas above .74
 

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bunnygirl

Well-known member
405 16
I'm short .7331. Aiming to take profits at .7321, .7301, .7281 and finally .7187. Time will tell ��
 

bunnygirl

Well-known member
405 16
I've just add to aud at .7277, back up to full trade now, final target .7187. In between targets .7267, .7247, .7217 . Stop loss on all .7287 so no big risk if it doesn't work.