Are any signal systems legit?

[MrBrilliant]

I know the obvious answer is "of course not, if it worked whoever is selling you a signal system could be making more money by just executing the signal"...

However, I was wondering if there was possibly more to the story? For example, I was just looking at one site that has 67% success rate on 15000 trades and it seems to be making consistent money, so what's the catch?

 

[Pat494]

I know the obvious answer is "of course not, if it worked whoever is selling you a signal system could be making more money by just executing the signal"...

However, I was wondering if there was possibly more to the story? For example, I was just looking at one site that has 67% success rate on 15000 trades and it seems to be making consistent money, so what's the catch?

Why not sign up and then let us know ????????????????

:cheesy:

 

[Forexmospherian]

I know the obvious answer is "of course not, if it worked whoever is selling you a signal system could be making more money by just executing the signal"...

However, I was wondering if there was possibly more to the story? For example, I was just looking at one site that has 67% success rate on 15000 trades and it seems to be making consistent money, so what's the catch?

Hi Mr Brilliant

I looked at signal service companies many years ago and even joined three for a couple of months to see how good they were.

I am sure there must be at least 1 out of 20 or 50 that might work over 3 - 12 months but you either spend a lot of time and money finding out and then you don't even learn how to trade

One of the signal services ( back in 2005) was run by an American guy called Steve Matrix - he would trade 8 -10 pairs a day with a couple of calls on each pair - and if you followed them - on the good days you would win 500+ pips and on his bad day you would lose 700 -1000 pip. So a good month - it was brilliant - but join the wrong week or month and you would lose your shirt. Money Management was never even mentioned - except only trade what you were prepared to lose. ( great advice). Even in those days it was $200+ a month.

You are far better - if you are serious, spending the months and years to make your own decisions based on your own methods gathered from thousands of hrs studying and watching live charts along with understanding MM and finding out if you have the correct mindset to carry it all out.

ie Learn to fish - rather than buy it and not have a clue what's going on

Did you know - even with a 67% win ratio and 15000 trades - they could still only just be surviving - or even could be losing money.

You can have short term intraday traders with 70-80% win ratios with targets of say 20 pips and no stops - or stops of 50 -70 pips - still having all their wins wiped out by a few bad trades.

Similar if they only have win ratios of 35 - 45% but their winning trades are with RR's over 2.5 or 3 - ie 30 pip stop and say 80 or 90 pip target - they will make money over time - but normally the results will be cr*p - like commercial results of only 3- 6% per month average and you could even have losing months

Trading is not a science - it requires high skill levels - excellent timing and results on retail capital accounts growth should be double or five fold plus compared to what you hear about in the commercial world - as they are dealing with millions - and they can no way afford to lose it all ;-)

Hope that helps

Regards

F

 

[Pferd]

I have tried several and can confirm that at least (for me) they don't work. Some of the guys outthere I believe are decent and honest people, however I can see how the pressure of the business model affects their services.

Let me explain myself:

I am pretty sure most of the clients of these services are either novice traders or people with micro (or very small) accounts, trying to find a shortcut to instantly become the next George Soros. Therefore 100 US$ a month (or more for most services) is a great deal of money, specially if you compare it with the size of their trading account.

Let`s take for example Dave Floyd in Aspen Trading. He is a great and decent guy and his analysis (although many times don't agree with mine) are well thought and useful. But as soon as he makes a couple of recommendations which go wrong, I can see panic starting to rise so he changes the system how he counts the winning/losing pips to always give the impression that no matter what his service makes money, which is not always the case.

I imagine that if you have a couple of bad months in that business you will be left with zero clients. If he would have a service (at a reasonable price) that allows me to just look at his analysis, I would prefer to pay for that instead of the trading recommendations.

To conclude: As there are no standard systems or a independent entity (like in Sports betting) where you can go and really see the performace of each service, I would suggest not to put money into any of them. I don't doubt there are some profitable, but I have not encounter any of them in my trading years, at least not in the long run.

Also we have to think that right now, as there is not a lot of volatility, it is not a very good time for trading short time styles like swing and scalping. When the volatility returns, then it will be much easier to trade, therefore one has to question if at that time makes sense to subscribe to any of these services for signals which anybody will be able to generate.

 

[MrBrilliant]

Thanks for the input guys, I really appreciate it!

 

[Pat494]

That losing 90% level probably applies to prop houses too.

Tough business imho but beats scratching around the Yukon for gold.

 

[OrderFlowDashPro]

Yes, as a previous vendor systems (not offered now), I tracked that my subscribers made thousands and thousands of real dollars.

While your attitude is understandable, these sorts of arguments "could make more money by trading it then selling" don't hold up. Now, in my case I did take my systems private because I wasn't making enough from the subscriptions. But, I might reintroduce them in the future.

The first thing to understand is that there are no absolutes in trading. There is always risk. So, there are no guarantees. A trader can make money every day of the month and then have a bad day and lose it all in one day.

So, once you understand that there are no "risk free" profits in trading then you can understand the first reason a trader might sell a profitable system: the reason is that no matter how profitable a trading system is, it requires both capital and the taking of risk to trade it. System developers may lack either capital or not want to take the risk.

More over, a good systematic strategy might return say 50% or even 100% per year. Systems that become popular are known to make their developers, 10k or even 15k per month. A small strategy developer starting with a 10k risk capital stands to only make 10k trading his system over the year but could make 180k in offering subscriptions.

So, you can see clearly for the small trader that selling the signals can work out better. But, even for a moderately capitalized trader, let's say this trader has 100k but only wants to allocate 25% of his capital to this system, which gives 25k profit over 1 year versus again 180k profit, and even with 100% allocation, selling the signals can produce 180k vs 100k. And now factor into that logic, that there is nothing preventing the trader from both trading and selling the signals you can start to understand why someone would sell the signals.

So, yes it is no surprise as to why a successful systems and signals are sold. Generally, I'd be less weary of signals sold then outright systems. In general, it is best to see third party auditing unless you know the developer.

 

[Pferd]

Yes, as a previous vendor systems (not offered now), I tracked that my subscribers made thousands and thousands of real dollars.

While your attitude is understandable, these sorts of arguments "could make more money by trading it then selling" don't hold up. Now, in my case I did take my systems private because I wasn't making enough from the subscriptions. But, I might reintroduce them in the future.

The first thing to understand is that there are no absolutes in trading. There is always risk. So, there are no guarantees. A trader can make money every day of the month and then have a bad day and lose it all in one day.

So, once you understand that there are no "risk free" profits in trading then you can understand the first reason a trader might sell a profitable system: the reason is that no matter how profitable a trading system is, it requires both capital and the taking of risk to trade it. System developers may lack either capital or not want to take the risk.

More over, a good systematic strategy might return say 50% or even 100% per year. Systems that become popular are known to make their developers, 10k or even 15k per month. A small strategy developer starting with a 10k risk capital stands to only make 10k trading his system over the year but could make 180k in offering subscriptions.

So, you can see clearly for the small trader that selling the signals can work out better. But, even for a moderately capitalized trader, let's say this trader has 100k but only wants to allocate 25% of his capital to this system, which gives 25k profit over 1 year versus again 180k profit, and even with 100% allocation, selling the signals can produce 180k vs 100k. And now factor into that logic, that there is nothing preventing the trader from both trading and selling the signals you can start to understand why someone would sell the signals.

So, yes it is no surprise as to why a successful systems and signals are sold. Generally, I'd be less weary of signals sold then outright systems. In general, it is best to see third party auditing unless you know the developer.

Can you point us in the direction of one of these marvelous systems which such returns? I am more than eager to subscribe......Otherwise what you write does not make any sense. Thanks!

 

[Pat494]

e obvious I know the answer is "of course not, if it worked whoever is selling you a signal system could be making more money by just executing the signal"...

However, I was wondering if there was possibly more to the story? For example, I was just looking at one site that has 67% success rate on 15000 trades and it seems to be making consistent money, so what's the catch?

Having pointed out above in red that you already know the correct answer to your own question I would like to mention 2 alternatives I have come across.

!. In automatic trading on I have found an expert which looks really good. 6*s your initial wedge in a few months as tested on this year's figures. The bad news it has an unacceptably high draw-down of about 50%.
2. Some guy called Sean ? plays by a calender. He has shown good results over about 2 decades. Buys in e,g. a utility for instance on a given date, holds for the given number of days and sells out for a profit. Weird or what.

 

[MrBrilliant]

!. In automatic trading on I have found an expert which looks really good. 6*s your initial wedge in a few months as tested on this year's figures. The bad news it has an unacceptably high draw-down of about 50%.

Would you be willing to share the identity/website of this expert?

 

[peter_anders]

the problem with any system is the underlying market changes. It's very rarely a sudden change either which would make it obvious. It's a gradual process before you notice your system isn't performing as well.

Every trader is a systematic trader to an extent as that is only way to have consistency. However the art of trading is being able to feel when a system needs to tweaked and in which a parameter according to the current state of the market

 

[Giovan]

Tested a few of those.....one made 600pips in a week and lost 800 two weeks later....They are only useful if they are being closely monitored on the other end

 

[robertofx]

Tested a few of those.....one made 600pips in a week and lost 800 two weeks later....They are only useful if they are being closely monitored on the other end

Truly agree with you here. I also had the similar experience

 

[frank1212]

optionscholar.com

I personally don't believe in predicting what the market is going to do by some stupid chart. I have followed several services and the ones that fair best are the ones that don't care what way the market moves. optionscholar.com is a great company that makes money in any market condition. I am sure there are several other services out there with similar outlook this just happens to be one i have had the most success with.

 

[redtag12]

Hi,very fair comment here on this subject i suspect like me some are actual traders(N ow there is a rare species here)lol just joking.I have tried signal services and like others have learnt the lesson leave then at your peril.also i have found and its not rocket science use your own money management system on the signals.Yes 15000 trades @67% win rate ,nice but as pointed out could still be a loser its all down to your money management.For me Money management is no1 and should be for any novice.So yes i think signal services can be ok .Tips for you newbies always try them out on a demo accounts first, obvious i know but people you can be so impatient.Its a long road keep it that way and you may survive.Good luck to all.

 

[SpearPointTrader]

Before I comment here, I want to disclose that I am a Broker with Aim Futures & Options. My use of the disclaimer is in case this should be, at some point, deemed communication with the public.

So far as the subject of signals goes, it has been my experience both in simulation and in real money I have traded in the past, that trying to trade off of individual signals is not sustainable. The reason is that the signal itself is nothing more than the representation of a specific, reoccurring market condition. So even though we can be pretty comfortable that the said signal will reproduce every time that specific market condition arises, we must understand that it can randomly appear during the normal course of the market's usual background noise as well.

In order to take advantage of the specific signal, we must ALSO learn to tell when the actual market condition is in play, and separate those times from the random market noise. I feel years of study, and implementation through manual trading is the best way to do this.

That said, there are a number of signals that are statistically generated more often by real conditions than they are random noise. If you can identify these, you can make money, in theory, by trading each one, robotically like a computer, every time it comes up. The problem comes in, when you hit a time period where it's mostly random market noise. You have to be big enough to weather all the drawdown until it comes back out the other side and you start getting real signals again.

If you have no way to know if the signals are real, or noise, you have to take them all and trust the historical, statistical performance of the method. It's a risk, that requires nerves of steel and this is where many people lose it....right before real signals start flooding in and it all turns around to become favorable again (seems to be the law of the universe or something)

To continue on, sometimes it's wise to use multiple signals in conjunction to kind of quantify each other. As an example, in my personal charting system I use what I call a "Spear Point" to quantify a common bollinger band squeeze. This helps me weed out the fake ones generated by random noise, from ones that are generated by real market conditions.

So, what this all means, is that you need much more than a simple signal to be successful. Trading is tough. You CAN do it, but it is a lot of work, effort and study.

SPT

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITIES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN ATTAINABLE IN COMMODITY TRADING CAN WORK FOR YOU, AS WELL AS AGAINST YOU.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

 

[counter_violent]

hay ballard thanks for the cool forex levels you posted last night for today

hey guys your welcome hope they kept you on track and made you somemoney

I'd start a journal if you like talking to yourself

 

[Pat494]

I'd start a journal if you like talking to yourself

You ole cynic CV. Didn't he discover the Titanic ?

 

[Looking22]

ES trades I dont do much else

If interested in Emini sp trading only AM to make 3-4 per lot per 3-4 trades let me know. Traders helping traders.

 

[forexjudge]

I know the obvious answer is "of course not, if it worked whoever is selling you a signal system could be making more money by just executing the signal"...

However, I was wondering if there was possibly more to the story? For example, I was just looking at one site that has 67% success rate on 15000 trades and it seems to be making consistent money, so what's the catch?

There are no such thing as perfect trading systems or signal system. Even the providers do lose on several occasions. You can use them, but expect failure sometimes.