Anyone shorting the Dow Jones? pt 2

[Talbs!]

Going beyond the theory, have people got short positions open on the Dow or sell orders above 13300?

Few of us made some good money shorting but buying back on the small dips not looking for big moves, couple of guys myself included put on some shots Friday but again unless something drastic happens ill be taking profit if I see 50 points

 

[cablemonster]

and of course all this talk of shorting depends if you are trading the temporary pullback in a trend or looking for a full blown reversal through the time frames. Personally I trade reactions to a level and suck it and see from there, judging each trade on it's own merits.

 

[CalvinLe55]

It's at a massive resistance in my opinion... if you remember correctly i forecasted just under a 1000 point fall last time i did a Dow thread. I'm normally an intraday trader but this looks juicy as hell. I'm in at 13605.6 and my stop is 13668.

How is everyone anyway?

Don't be in the way of the Dow 30 trend today

 

[Doomberg]

I'm in at 13605.6 and my stop is 13668.

Lol that was close, i have 62.9 as the highest it went to on friday with IG?

 

[chimpmagnet]

Lol that was close, i have 62.9 as the highest it went to on friday with IG?

62.8 with CMC, so yes :-0

 

[Talbs!]

Lol that was close, i have 62.9 as the highest it went to on friday with IG?

Mine is at 13670 ! Today is so zzzzzzzzzzzzzz hate US holidays !

 

[brewski1984]

I might stick a sell order in at 13668 if that's where all your stops are then

 

[wino59]

I agree about the resistance, but for some reason the market seems so strong, despite everything going on politically... It is like the market doesn't seem to care about the debt crisis.

I think we are going up to 14200 area, before we see a big a sell off, that is only if we below through this resistance area of the 13600. Also the 14200 will be a double top on the DOW, and the sell off could be huge. I am keeping a long position on until I see confirmation either way on this 13600 area.

 

[Talbs!]

Agree it does feel strong, u have to try and short these massive resistances but if they break switch it and get long, non of us know whats going to happen, pick your chart levels and make your trade. the amount of times ive seen these markets going up or down and it all looks one way and suddenly all change again !

 

[CalvinLe55]

The market is looking very juicy and delicious right now, so I wouldn't take any chances at the direction of the oveall trend. Everything can be so attractive to investors just after one day and you will have to reconsider your bets. My gosh I do hate hoildays to the point I don't even keep track of them, because I sent out a Newsletter to my guys on expected action. Oh, well Tuesday will be another thing if Monday the FTSE Exchange does well than it should be lessen down.

 

[brewski1984]

I might stick a sell order in at 13668 if that's where all your stops are then

I've been triggered in overnight, it's only a small stakes punt and I still think we will see over 14000 soon.

 

[Funky Trader]

When the markets are so manipulated, what's the point of trying to second guess?

The massive amounts of QE that the world has seen in the past few years means there should be a massive amount of liquidity out there, somewhere. The US NEEDS the DJI to keep going higher to get more of the (supposed) money on the sidelines to go into equities thereby giving the impression that all is hunky dory and its ever increasing debt is serviceable.

Try looking at Dow Jones vs Dollar index. ALthough it won't get you in a tops or bottoms. it'll give you 'safer' trades?

 

[Doomberg]

I was actually stopped out by a few points when i was not near a PC, however i still believe it will go where i thought

For anyone who wasn't stopped.... good luck :clover:

 

[Talbs!]

I was actually stopped out by a few points when i was not near a PC, however i still believe it will go where i thought

For anyone who wasn't stopped.... good luck :clover:

Manged to take profit on my shorts on the move down, was more luck than anything else so not good trading, i have got long now, think more upside before we tank

 

[Doomberg]

Anyone waiting on a serious collapse? I think it's coming, but when is the question

Also does anyone have any more info RE the alleged recent QE on DJI?

 

[Talbs!]

Anyone waiting on a serious collapse? I think it's coming, but when is the question

Also does anyone have any more info RE the alleged recent QE on DJI?

if congress approve the extention of the debt ceiling for 3 months tomorrow that will give this another push, of course we will come off hard at some point but all about timing and technicals

 

[wino59]

Anyone waiting on a serious collapse? I think it's coming, but when is the question

Also does anyone have any more info RE the alleged recent QE on DJI?

I stated earlier in this post that I thought we would blow through the resistance level of 13600 and go to the old high of 14,200 area. Still riding the long position until I see something to convince me otherwise... If we get to the 14200, I would look for serious decline. However it may take a couple of weeks to get there, there may be a small pull back in there somewhere, but I think we keep chugging along until we reach those levels.

The market isn't going to react until we get to a deadline...especially after the fiscal cliff, where we go right to the wire then something gets done, I think the market just assumes that is the way it is going to be, so why worry with it until it comes.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

It's at a massive resistance in my opinion... if you remember correctly i forecasted just under a 1000 point fall last time i did a Dow thread. I'm normally an intraday trader but this looks juicy as hell. I'm in at 13605.6 and my stop is 13668.

How is everyone anyway?

I'm alright friend and I think it's wise to consider shorting the DJIA at this point in time but I would wait for more signals to start loading up shorts (unless you're buying puts considering bargains won't last long once the bears make their next cameo).

We're progressing towards a correction, I think this can hardly be doubted, but for the time being I see volatility being suppressed and market makers (and deep pocketed operators) operating benevolently for the time being - assisting day-traders in creating quick bounces for easy cash; I think this is a front for long-term positions to unload their positions at a decent price without creating a pre-mature shock in the markets as well. Once those long-term positions cash out the markets will become over-saturated with short-term traders and a sharp correction will ensue as the profits dry up.

But as far as the short - term goes the DJIA could be propped up at current levels, and the bulls could stampede in for one last hurrah before a correction, I expect the correction will be approaching fiercely around March.

Good luck, and if you think the DJIA is going down I would check the NUGT. There is a HUGE upside to gold if there is a panic, or even an overwhelming amount of bearishness. It popped up 5% today. Great to day-trade, huge upside long-term, timid downside as well. Doesn't get much better than that.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Hi Doomberg,
I've been 'predicting' a fall in $SPX since the start of the S&P 500 weekly comp' thread and have come unstuck every time! The 'sap' - or moving averages - are still pointing up. For a long term play, it's too soon to be going short, IMO . . .
View attachment 153992
When the EMAs cross back over - that's the time to load up the shorts!

Right on it's too difficult to call the top up here considering the money supply has expanded so much since the recession and the liquidity problem, which was the chief concern, has been dealt with appropriately. The bulls have a lot of room to work here and a lot of profits to work with, I would wait for more obvious signs to wager on the downtrend.

I see how it can be very tempting to want to buy up shorts up in this stratospheric price but the market is full of surprises, better off just waiting for the downtrend / correction to clearly materialize plain and bright as day.


ATM the upside = the downside so shorting the S&P isn't exactly the best place to park your money.

But if you're indeed right you will nail the extra 3%+ points that shorting all the way up here would bring.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I stated earlier in this post that I thought we would blow through the resistance level of 13600 and go to the old high of 14,200 area. Still riding the long position until I see something to convince me otherwise... If we get to the 14200, I would look for serious decline. However it may take a couple of weeks to get there, there may be a small pull back in there somewhere, but I think we keep chugging along until we reach those levels.

The market isn't going to react until we get to a deadline...especially after the fiscal cliff, where we go right to the wire then something gets done, I think the market just assumes that is the way it is going to be, so why worry with it until it comes.

Agreed short-term confidence in American stocks should be bolstered, at least for the month, I expect longer than 2 months since the fiscal cliff deadline.