B
Black Swan
Not sure re the fundas, but It's *bounced back* from second level of resistance R2 (I'm using 4hr TF for analysis), be interesting to see if it breaks through on a second attempt as I saw/still see 8200 ** as a breach of sorts...it it bounces back, from another re-test, I expect a fall (as I do anyhow)...but heh, wtf... bigger (collective) 'brains' than mine will make those decisions, that'll impact on my charts...etc...etc...etc...
** I'm looking at Daily US crude btw...
The current price is always right.
elitejets
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I'm bullish, buy on dips.
Brent tends to follow US crude so you need to check that chart.
I have it in an ascending channel. We are at strong resistance at 80 and a close above it is bullish. Next resistance is 82.50, then 85 and I think 88.90 very likely.
The dollar index is correcting off its rally, the FTSE made new yearly highs today and the SnP broke above the resistance level at 1130 area and is set for higher. All support higher prices. Fundamentals don't always matter very much in crude and there is a spring seasonal affect also.
Brent tends to follow US crude so you need to check that chart.
I have it in an ascending channel. We are at strong resistance at 80 and a close above it is bullish. Next resistance is 82.50, then 85 and I think 88.90 very likely.
The dollar index is correcting off its rally, the FTSE made new yearly highs today and the SnP broke above the resistance level at 1130 area and is set for higher. All support higher prices. Fundamentals don't always matter very much in crude and there is a spring seasonal affect also.
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Interesting thank you
N Rothschild
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wrong!
B
Black Swan
I noticed, I did put a note to that effect in my post. I've been long (Daily US crude) since 7900 March 2nd, elite-jets anaylsis above can't be faulted IMO.
Funny I've looked at the news all day and the general consensus when you get past the noise is there is plenty of supply and no real reason for the sharp increase in price bar speculation. No doubt that is my inexperience in not realising the power of media and the effect of sentiment
With todays action definatley not, do you still see a fall coming though?
B
Black Swan
I don't want to come across as a Mark Douglas acolyte but honestly I am (have become) a v. simple/unsophisticated, probability based trader...On my currency pairs I work off/ manage my trades/make all my decisions on a 30 min TF with a *mixture* of; rsi, stoch, macd, 2 MAs (one fast EMA one slower MA), levels of resistance/support and the daily pivot...seeing clear PA is simply a converse 'support' to this method/edge...Other than knowing of interest rate decisions and other key macro economic releases I ignore all fundamental issues/news througout the day and concentrate on TA exclusively..
I operate this way for a couple of reasons (one related to my early experiences of trading crude); on forex...trading the seven most liquid pairs I trade, there is little ramping/control/media influence that can cause movements/spikes. There is volume at key areas of each 24hr period. However, with oil the vast amount of commentary and actions, by diverse parties with cloaked interests, created to deliberately move/control prices is stunning. That's why I trade it over a 4hr/daily TF, 'arguably' the swings are then based on the truer fundamentals (if such exist with crude), once all the BS has evaporated.
But, that not withstanding, I still trade oil on the basis of the strat/edge outlined above, I simply tweak it to accomodate its behaviour...It is in the clear ascending channel elite-jets suggests, it has moved up ten $ a barrel inside the past month..I've simply followed the swings/mini swings. Do I expect a fall, absolutely, whether that'll be a correction this coming week, offering up price discovery to then move back up, or a major swing I havn't got a clue....which is all I had to say in the first place before typing 3 paras...
BSD
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Great posts Elitejets and Black Swan.
Nice chart, too, Nic:
This is what I'm harping on about all the time...
As long as the MA's are sloping down you could have shorted every single pullback and / or inside bar and ended up at a minimum breakeven on individual trades and way ahead overall, ditto for longs when the MA's are sloping up.
Even works in ranges - eg check out that range on the chart in the middle from Dec 2008 till February 2009 - as long as you don't go against the MA's.
Privce always has and always will move in cycles that give yq more than ample opportunities to hop onboard.
Best way of trading that exists in my book because it doesn't only have high winning percentages, but also lets you place extremely tight stops generating some great risk / rewards ratios.
Simple KISS at it's best yet so effective.
Nice chart, too, Nic:
This is what I'm harping on about all the time...
As long as the MA's are sloping down you could have shorted every single pullback and / or inside bar and ended up at a minimum breakeven on individual trades and way ahead overall, ditto for longs when the MA's are sloping up.
Even works in ranges - eg check out that range on the chart in the middle from Dec 2008 till February 2009 - as long as you don't go against the MA's.
Privce always has and always will move in cycles that give yq more than ample opportunities to hop onboard.
Best way of trading that exists in my book because it doesn't only have high winning percentages, but also lets you place extremely tight stops generating some great risk / rewards ratios.
Simple KISS at it's best yet so effective.
Elaborate...
I don't want to come across as a Mark Douglas acolyte but honestly I am (have become) a v. simple/unsophisticated, probability based trader...On my currency pairs I work off/ manage my trades/make all my decisions on a 30 min TF with a *mixture* of; rsi, stoch, macd, 2 MAs (one fast EMA one slower MA), levels of resistance/support and the daily pivot...seeing clear PA is simply a converse 'support' to this method/edge...Other than knowing of interest rate decisions and other key macro economic releases I ignore all fundamental issues/news througout the day and concentrate on TA exclusively..
I operate this way for a couple of reasons (one related to my early experiences of trading crude); on forex...trading the seven most liquid pairs I trade, there is little ramping/control/media influence that can cause movements/spikes. There is volume at key areas of each 24hr period. However, with oil the vast amount of commentary and actions, by diverse parties with cloaked interests, created to deliberately move/control prices is stunning. That's why I trade it over a 4hr/daily TF, 'arguably' the swings are then based on the truer fundamentals (if such exist with crude), once all the BS has evaporated.
But, that not withstanding, I still trade oil on the basis of the strat/edge outlined above, I simply tweak it to accomodate its behaviour...It is in the clear ascending channel elite-jets suggests, it has moved up ten $ a barrel inside the past month..I've simply followed the swings/mini swings. Do I expect a fall, absolutely, whether that'll be a correction this coming week, offering up price discovery to then move back up, or a major swing I havn't got a clue....which is all I had to say in the first place before typing 3 paras...
Thanks for the Insight, really useful
N Rothschild
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well the price is only right if you believe that markets are always at equilibrium which is total rubbish!
Instead of viewing price as right or wrong, price is just price. There's no right or wrong on reflection, it just is.
But if uknown fundamental economic realities become known, as is the case with macro-economic releases and they show that retrospectively, instrument x is overpriced relative to general economic performance - which can be measured other markets (imbalance) - then elasticity will kick in and a new price discovery will take place until the a balance is struck or the new "right price" is found.
Example: http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-gains-metals-oil-dip-on-china-inflation.html
Suppose the more I'm learning and beginning to form my own opinions the more I'm starting to think the market is NOT run by omnipotent beings and the premise of EMH is probably correct a to some degree it just really isn't that efficent.
Unknown realities as you say, implies the future, which might affect future price. Price at present is what all participants have agreed on with present factors known, therefore no one should dispute that current price. We can only position ourselves with our perception of how events will unfold in the FUTURE.
User
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Even though the prices of financial instruments are a measure of its future worth, the price itself still changes hands at a given point and at that given point the price is always right.
Markets don't have any equilibrium; if they did then prices would not move in the manner in which they do.
The price is always what one is prepared to pay. If that is a hedge fund, investment bank or small guy the price will be signified by the influx of capital involved within it.
Any technical, systematic, fundamental, instinct or opinions can be seen as all underlying speculation. This is because however one’s ‘price expectation’ has been derived it has no guarantees of reaching one’s valuation of it. Therefore any printed price at a given time is always correct.
In complex terms the worth of anything in this world is controlled by one currency the US Dollar. Regardless of variables such as valuations of a particular instrument, profits or losses or supply and demand the underlying price can change with the worth of the Dollar alone no matter what the respected currency may be.
:smart:
Markets don't have any equilibrium; if they did then prices would not move in the manner in which they do.
The price is always what one is prepared to pay. If that is a hedge fund, investment bank or small guy the price will be signified by the influx of capital involved within it.
Any technical, systematic, fundamental, instinct or opinions can be seen as all underlying speculation. This is because however one’s ‘price expectation’ has been derived it has no guarantees of reaching one’s valuation of it. Therefore any printed price at a given time is always correct.
In complex terms the worth of anything in this world is controlled by one currency the US Dollar. Regardless of variables such as valuations of a particular instrument, profits or losses or supply and demand the underlying price can change with the worth of the Dollar alone no matter what the respected currency may be.
:smart:
