Any one else get this gut indicator?

arabianights

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2007
6,725
1,377
223
#1
I generally have no particular problem listening to my gut, but here's a fairly strange one. I trade in lots, and very often there's no particular size of position I have on... in any case I always think of profits in ticks.

But say a couple of times a week, on average, I calculate the expected profit in pounds* after making the trade and start thinking about what my pnl is going to be. And I should say about 95% of the time I do this I need to scratch or take a loss.

It's now been going on for over a year, and I'm bloody certain it's not conformation bias or whatever... so whenever I get this feeling now I'm gonna scratch. Try it for a month or two then revealuate.

Anyone recognise this?

*For reasons not worth bothering with it's not necessary for me to do this with any precision before entering a trade.
 
Likes: Waterfield
Mar 29, 2007
2,806
125
73
www.oilfxpro.com
#2
I generally have no particular problem listening to my gut, but here's a fairly strange one. I trade in lots, and very often there's no particular size of position I have on... in any case I always think of profits in ticks.

But say a couple of times a week, on average, I calculate the expected profit in pounds* after making the trade and start thinking about what my pnl is going to be. And I should say about 95% of the time I do this I need to scratch or take a loss.

It's now been going on for over a year, and I'm bloody certain it's not conformation bias or whatever... so whenever I get this feeling now I'm gonna scratch. Try it for a month or two then revealuate.

Anyone recognise this?

*For reasons not worth bothering with it's not necessary for me to do this with any precision before entering a trade.
You should only be thinking of perfect execution of the trade and nothing else.The sole objective is to make a profit that the trade is willing to give you.It is called greed and fear indicator:LOL:
 

Prawnsandwich

Active member
Nov 22, 2008
339
30
38
#3
I generally have no particular problem listening to my gut, but here's a fairly strange one. I trade in lots, and very often there's no particular size of position I have on... in any case I always think of profits in ticks.

But say a couple of times a week, on average, I calculate the expected profit in pounds* after making the trade and start thinking about what my pnl is going to be. And I should say about 95% of the time I do this I need to scratch or take a loss.

It's now been going on for over a year, and I'm bloody certain it's not conformation bias or whatever... so whenever I get this feeling now I'm gonna scratch. Try it for a month or two then revealuate.

Anyone recognise this?

*For reasons not worth bothering with it's not necessary for me to do this with any precision before entering a trade.
Hmm definitely sounds a bit familiar...got it slightly today though much less often these days...more common when stepping up level of risk....just keep saying must let it run must let it run must let it run......detachment from the money innit
 

arabianights

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2007
6,725
1,377
223
#4
chaps anything about letting things run is irrlevant to me... I susually have 1 tick profit targets or stops.
 

Prawnsandwich

Active member
Nov 22, 2008
339
30
38
#5
chaps anything about letting things run is irrlevant to me... I susually have 1 tick profit targets or stops.
Must have snake like reflexes so.....how many thousands of trades per day ?
 

DionysusToast

Well-known member
Dec 6, 2009
5,962
1,497
223
www.jigsawtrading.com
#6
I would go with the gut to be honest.

Sometimes you get in & it doesn't feel right - that's enough reason to get out IMO.

The mind is a wonderful thing - it just doesn't always fill you in on all the details. Sometimes it just presents you with directions.
 

4xpipcounter

Well-known member
Jun 12, 2010
1,556
28
58
#7
Sounds like you migth be making goals for profits on each one of your trades. Take it trade-by-trade, and let the chips fall where they may. Personally, I get in a trade at point A, and I know it is going to point B, and that's it. The amount of lots I use is based on a percentage of the total equity in my account. That way I keep things on an even keel, and then my emotions don't get carried away.

But say a couple of times a week, on average, I calculate the expected profit in pounds* after making the trade and start thinking about what my pnl is going to be. And I should say about 95% of the time I do this I need to scratch or take a loss.
 

Prawnsandwich

Active member
Nov 22, 2008
339
30
38
#8
Ifs OP is being serious then, perhaps an explanation is that when he starts thinking about the money rather than the trade, it somehow negatively affects his execution / management of the trade....leading to the trade not working out.....

...as in not detaching himself from the money...depends on what happens the instrument after he exits when he says he needs to take a loss or scratch..does it then go his way on any occasion ?
 

barjon

Well-known member
May 6, 2003
10,093
1,490
223
78
#9
I generally have no particular problem listening to my gut, but here's a fairly strange one. I trade in lots, and very often there's no particular size of position I have on... in any case I always think of profits in ticks.

But say a couple of times a week, on average, I calculate the expected profit in pounds* after making the trade and start thinking about what my pnl is going to be. And I should say about 95% of the time I do this I need to scratch or take a loss.

It's now been going on for over a year, and I'm bloody certain it's not conformation bias or whatever... so whenever I get this feeling now I'm gonna scratch. Try it for a month or two then revealuate.

Anyone recognise this?

*For reasons not worth bothering with it's not necessary for me to do this with any precision before entering a trade.
arab

i think prawny is has probably got to it.

by thinking money you may be diverting your minds attention from the price action to your account (the trading your account rather than the action syndrome) and that is affecting your making of "clean" judgements about what is actually happening.

alternatively, it may be that when you start thinking money after making the trade it is a sub-conscious trigger that all is not well.

in either case, kill the trade :)

cheers

jon
 

Prawnsandwich

Active member
Nov 22, 2008
339
30
38
#10
arab

i think prawny is has probably got to it.

by thinking money you may be diverting your minds attention from the price action to your account (the trading your account rather than the action syndrome) and that is affecting your making of "clean" judgements about what is actually happening.

alternatively, it may be that when you start thinking money after making the trade it is a sub-conscious trigger that all is not well.

in either case, kill the trade :)

cheers

jon
Agreed - its all down to what happens the instrument after exit - was it correct to exit or not....

If it turns out that the exit wasn't correct in the most part, then its important to learn to stay in trade as long as its conforming with trading method......letting it run...

If it turns out that it was correct to exit in the majority of cases, even though trade is conforming with the trading plan, then thats some spooky sh1t right there....
 
Last edited: