Any ideas for simple stop loss calculation?

Kenneth Paine

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Hi all. I am a beginner in this field and I share a spreadbetting alert service with a friend. The service will email us once a week with one or two opportunities based on technical analysis. The alert explains how the conclusion has been arrived at using charts etc. so it is also educational. My friend and I then go and lay our spread bets accordingly

My problem is that the usual instruction is "Buy/sell at X price. Target (say) +/-40 points. Set you stop at -/+ 50 points.

Point 1 is that I am uncomfortable with a stop loss which could give you a bigger loss than the potential profit. Fortunately the service has been quite accurate, but this leads to point 2:

Point 2 is that the service may take some time before it instructs the stop to be moved and by what amount. Meantime the price may have moved favourably and we are still exposed by 50 points unless we start interfering.

So the question is: If you were to find a pattern indicating a swing, how would you calculate your stop loss and trailing distance? I am looking for a proportional method that can be applied to all stocks whether they are trading at 40 or 400 points.

My friend and I have different bet sizing methods. He will think: "I want to make £200 out of this trade so I will place £5 a point while I am thinking I don't want to loose more than £200 on this trade so I will place £4 a point. This leads to a further issue: How do you compare apples with apples? How do you apportion equal risk amongst very different stocks?

There must be an ATR related equation that can be applied. Any ideas?

Many thanks,

Kenneth.
 
Kenneth - good questions.

You could consider NOT taking those trades where the Risk:Reward is not within your acceptable criteria.

I personally would not trade a Black Box system (which this is) especially none where you are dependent upon dynamic info (the email on stoploss movement) with no backup?

The Stoploss issue is a perennial one. Without more info on your timeframe and instruments I'd be unwilling to comment further (even with them I'd be unwilling to be honest).

I guess my point is:- if you're trading a black box system and it's profitable - trade it. (Your Point #1).

If you're unhappy with your risk/exposure - stop trading the black box system entirely and start developing your own system.
 
Is it not a simple case of putting your stop underneath support by X points? Do you actually know where support is. If you don't, I think you're going to be on thin ice. Of course, you may well do. You haven't said what level of experience you have.
 
Kenneth Paine said:
My friend and I have different bet sizing methods. He will think: "I want to make £200 out of this trade so I will place £5 a point while I am thinking I don't want to loose more than £200 on this trade so I will place £4 a point. This leads to a further issue: How do you compare apples with apples? How do you apportion equal risk amongst very different stocks?.
Missed this bit earlier Ken.

You could assign a certain percentage of your trading capital to each trade. Say, ooh I don't know....1% :cool:

You then look at your risk for each trade. If you have a stop that's 25p (you are SBing UK stocks?) then you divide 1% of your total trading capital by 25p. How many 25ps can you afford to lose on this trade? That's the £1/pt or number of shares you buy/sell.

E,G.

Say you have £100,000 trading capital. 1% of that is £1,000. So you're willing to risk £1000 per trade.

You have a long trade lined up on a stock with an initial stop/risk of £0.50.

£1,000 / £0.50 = 2000 shares or £20/point.

Allow for slippage (broker) or slipaaaaage (SB)

HTH
 
KP,
You are doing what a tipping service tells you to do, but one which is not even real time or constantly updated.
That to my mind is simply inadequate and is doomed to certain failure.
I think your energies would be better directed at learning how to fish for your supper rather than at consuming fish fingers of dubious provenance and asking how best to eat them safely.
Richard
 
Thanks very much for your support guys. I will be back later on today to answer your questions and keep this thread going.

Kind regards,

Kenneth
 
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