Am i retarded?

[AspiringTrader.]

I took a intraday position out on the Eur/Usd to go long and the back of TA and Fundamentals.

I based my position on the hourly, the current price action droped down to 1.4436 support level on a upward hourly trend. i had the next resistance level as first target, and a key resistance level on the daily as my second target. My entry was on the fifteen minute TF after worse than expected durable goods data was released for the US. My position rose about 20 odd points before falling to the wayside 100pts over the next 7 hours.

my thinking was, US debt ceiling still unresolved, threatning downgrade of US AAA rating, worse than expected durable goods data(from 1.9% to -2.1%), the pair hit a support level on the hourly, the pair broke up through the trend previously on the daily but had a small retrace.. and so on

Am i missing something here? am i reading the data wrong? is my strategy wrong? i know we cant win all trades but i was confident with this one after the data release and with the US debt crisis.

IDK, any help would be greatly appreciated,
picture attached

Cheers,
AT

 

[petedeluiz]

Trading have nothing to do with fundamentals imo, it's all derived by the force and we have to know how to read them, and the timing of it to happen. The force uses simple supply/demand equation, a few MAs and they are greedy like hell, always want the cheap.

 

[andycon]

Trading have nothing to do with fundamentals imo, it's all derived by the force and we have to know how to read them, and the timing of it to happen. The force uses simple supply/demand equation, a few MAs and they are greedy like hell, always want the cheap.

May the force be with you:cheesy:

 

[petedeluiz]

Hopefully Andycon :cheesy:

 

[Black Swan]

I took a intraday position out on the Eur/Usd to go long and the back of TA and Fundamentals.

I based my position on the hourly, the current price action droped down to 1.4436 support level on a upward hourly trend. i had the next resistance level as first target, and a key resistance level on the daily as my second target. My entry was on the fifteen minute TF after worse than expected durable goods data was released for the US. My position rose about 20 odd points before falling to the wayside 100pts over the next 7 hours.

my thinking was, US debt ceiling still unresolved, threatning downgrade of US AAA rating, worse than expected durable goods data(from 1.9% to -2.1%), the pair hit a support level on the hourly, the pair broke up through the trend previously on the daily but had a small retrace.. and so on

Am i missing something here? am i reading the data wrong? is my strategy wrong? i know we cant win all trades but i was confident with this one after the data release and with the US debt crisis.

IDK, any help would be greatly appreciated,
picture attached

Cheers,
AT

Well...I went short and read the market, price action and patterns totaly differently to you..Suspect we'll now get a re-trace.

 

[TheBramble]

TA AND Fundamentals? Hmmmm.....

If you were trading the Daily, I'd suggest fundamentals with perhaps an MA to give you value entries would be the right way to go.

Anything sub-Daily really isn't going to be that interested in Fundamentals.

If you're trading the Hourly, I'd suggest forgetting about trying to second-guess potential developments in the macro space and just stick with basic TA.

As for your interpretation of S&R levels, you may possibly be taking too narrow (temporal) a view. The 4330 level (where it's at and been at for a while) was always a more obvious Support level.

You seem to have taken the level 100 pips above (4430) as a Support level when that was more relevant to a Resistance level - you use local highs for Resistance and local lows for Support. In an upward trend (if it is an upward trend - LOL) you're really looking for pullback to local lows, not highs.

 

[bbmac]

It would seem that risk aversion took hold of that market yesterday re the U.s debt negotiations hence the drop. but I agree with bramble above, it's no good taking a position off a 15min t/f from a fundie point of view..these can take days/months to play out.

G/L

 

[Black Swan]

Are you retarded? Nope..it can take years of trial and error to accept that we really have no idea what price will do next and we can only base our decisions on repeating (ryhming) patterns if using charts. What wil happen in Euroland, what will happen in the USA to affect price..? Your guess is as good as mine.

I only trade the Euro now, on average I'll take no more than 3 trades per week, last week one, this week one so far (although split into two trades)..concentrating on the one security has benefits and drawbacks. Just keep plugging away, don't beat yourself up, imho if you get the trade 'right' two times out of three you're exceptional.

 

[Black Swan]

closed both for circa 240 pips, that's it for the week for me..

 

[TheBramble]

What's have your trades got to do with the OP? (Unless it's simply that your subconscious was attracted to the title of the thread...)

And for someone with an apparent track record, it's bloody weird to see you crowing about absolute pips profit without any mention of pips risked.

Well done for making those pips. Whatever that means in reality.

 

[Splitlink]

I'm up 100 on my week, so far, but I only do mornings and indices.. Still to-morrow, though. This is pure TA, as far as I am concerned. I've had to do more trades than you, though, BS.

 

[Chartsy]

Well...I went short and read the market, price action and patterns totaly differently to you..Suspect we'll now get a re-trace.

That's a pretty chart, but where's da Mac-dee

 

[scose-no-doubt]

That's a fake, Swanny. Where's the figures showing your entry price? Entry arrow is too big as well. Rumbled, son but good effort.

 

[Black Swan]

What's have your trades got to do with the OP? (Unless it's simply that your subconscious was attracted to the title of the thread...)

And for someone with an apparent track record, it's bloody weird to see you crowing about absolute pips profit without any mention of pips risked.

Well done for making those pips. Whatever that means in reality.

my my..Tony you've changed.."crowing", what's that?

The guy brings up his Euro bias, I only trade the Euro these days (quiet life, leaves plenty of time to work on other industry related *stuff*) and had the opposite viewpoint. Made sense and was appropriate to show the OP where I was in the market when I spotted the post, I closed early but..well you know how it is with exits. My views on fundies and prollys have been done to death, as has my railing against the zeitgeist that indicators are voodoo..they do work, but not as most expect them too and I'm not about to bore the guy with my technique/edge/opinions..

Pips risked? The first graph shows how the stop had been moved to near on b/e, as for risk 2% per trade every trade, I gain approx. 15% per month on current performance..

* it's 1% per trade, 2% on the total trade if I get the second entry opportunity. The stops are always at the HH or LL of the session or previous session

 

[Black Swan]

That's a pretty chart, but where's da Mac-dee

What is this voodoo instrument of which you speak? Is that the...ya know...grail thing?

 

[rc450]

(quiet life, leaves plenty of time to work on other industry related *stuff*)

you ain't about to go all *vendor on us iz ya!

edit *mentor

 

[Black Swan]

you ain't about to go all vendor on us iz ya!

Hahaha..I'd be such a patient 'teacher'..

 

[x4x]

No, of course not - the trade didn't work out and you lost - get over it.

The only thing I would say is if you are trading 15M charts, you had plenty of time to reverse your trade when you saw a close below the support you highlighted - and as some others have suggested forget the fundies - they will mess with your head.

 

[Pazienza]

Fundamentals can be tremendously helpful even when trading intraday. However, most people do not understand the key fundamental consideration.

I trade both ignoring and using fundamental considerations. As with everything else, it is not as simple as saying "you must use them" or "you must ignore them".

 

[x4x]

Fundamentals can be tremendously helpful even when trading intraday. However, most people do not understand the key fundamental consideration.

I trade both ignoring and using fundamental considerations. As with everything else, it is not as simple as saying "you must use them" or "you must ignore them".

Fair point - I'll rephrase: Forget fundamentals unless you thoroughly understand them.