After thousands of hours of screentime...

[keano]

Does there ever come a point where a trader can basically always tell where the price is heading, whether they're looking at a 30second chart or a 1hr chart at any given point in the day?

I ask this question because I am concerned about possibly overtrading recently. Although, I am making lots of points most days so its not necessarily a 'problem' (if you see what I mean)

I know all about 'waiting for the right set-up' but when I was trading today, I was looking at very small time frames and no matter what time I sat down at my screen I had a very strong feeling of what was happening and where price was headed and traded it accordingly.

I took, I think, 18 trades in the last few hours or so. Is this considered a lot of trades to you guys?

A you can see I was stopped out a few times for about -8 ticks each time but took about 130 ticks on the other trades. I am currently holding that very last long (bkue arrow) you can see which is currently makinjg me another 40 ticks.

Does any one else trade like this? Is it considered 'over trading'? Do you think its possible that after years of screen watching one can just 'know' exactly what price is doing and where it is going and doesn't need to wait for a 'set-up' ? (note - im not saying I have this ability)

cheers.

 

[bbmac]

It's an interesting point and I can relate to it. You do get an intuitive sense of price action/direction particularly if you specialise in a certain instrument in that you recognise it's charatceristics/idiosyncracies over time. What happensd also is that you end up kicking yourself when price dulty obliges your instinct but you are not in the market for lack of a set-up. (how many times has that happened ?)

The point I guess is deciding whether your trading system/methodology is based on your instinct or a set-up howsoever you define a set-up. Instict is subjective a set-up isn't, and as such a set-up does not require instinct,...it's just a trading edge that you should excercise with impunity when seen. Instinct relies toa certain extent on emotion and any number of outside psychological factors can influence it to the probable extent that you might et it spectacularly wrong one day . In such circumstances how do you know that your instinct hasn't become revenge, or greed or fear for that matter.

 

[keano]

Thanks BBmac. Great reply and im glad you can relate to what im getting at.

that last trade was closed for 35 pips and then I entered another long when it dropped back down which just got closed for another 40 pips.

I need to further investigate this issue I think.

 

[N Rothschild]

for me 18 trades would be over trading. and no trader can always be right and there will be times even the best wont have a clue how or why

 

[vincentlynch]

Hi there, i enjoyed this thread. i've only been trading for a few weeks. but i spent a while playing virtually before i started. all the books i read always say dont overtrade.... but none really define it. and when i watch youtube all the videos show that not staying off the trigger button often resorts in higher points. At the minute i personally couldnt manage 18 a day.
I think there is alot to be said about becoming good at a particular market. alot of the books say 'dont play the indicies its gambling' but from what i've found so far for day trading you havent really got a huge amount of choice if you want movement. Plus living in the UK and watching the news, getting daily papers, etc i find it quite easy to understand the FTSE 100. i feel like i know the companies very well.

Anyway i dont want to make my post massively lengthy, so i'll just leave it at that.

Many thanks

 

[DugDug]

as a rough guide when it comes to overtrading.....if the broker makes more money than you do, you are overtrading.
Also, when it comes to picking the market....i have always worked on the basis that its easy making money, its hard hanging on to it. Its when you loose that hurts you.
I know thats a bit general, but its all about making sure that you keep doing the same thing on a consistent manner. Nothing worksa ll the time, but so long as it gives enough of an edge over the long term then its fine. Trading should be boring, good trading should be easy and boring.

 

[Adamus]

If it really is intuition that you are trading on, then you should look into the martial arts and zen and meditation. In the same way a skilled samurai doesn't have to think to block and parry when an opponent attacks, you should be able to react to the market movements without stopping to consider it. In the same way that moonlight is reflected in still water, it just happens.

Not an easy thing in this society with all of its business and distractions. I certainly can't do it, but then I guess I never practiced enough.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

There are traders that trade up tp 100 times a day scalping for a few ticks. It purely depends on your approach. All traders have a tendency to overtrade as we hate sitting around. As for telling where the price is heading I learnt to do that when I left my losing trades in time and time again and kept watching what happened and virually knew when I was going to lose more and what direction the market was going. Thats why discipline and money management are by far the most important things to learn