Critical evaluation
Hi all,
not sure if it is of interest but, well here goes.
August was a quiet month for me, hols, golf and general laziness!
I entered 19 trades and am positive around 50 points.
I have made some errors in my stops and I will share them.
IMHO, stops should be trailed rapidly to break even then should be slackened to let the trade run.
In the case of 3 trades not following that fundamental strategy has cost me dear, almost 100 points! Ouch!!!!
As far as my forays into the indices I am break even, well, slightly positive. I know most of you do not like these trades but for me there is huge potential with a very simple formula. It is certainly not for those of a nervous disposition! It requires a huge amount of concentration and screen watching. but the results can be spectacular.
At the moment I am still long in BG,(going well, stop @ BE) IRV (Flat) and VED (going very well, stop @ BE)
Good trading
Dave
Hi all,
not sure if it is of interest but, well here goes.
August was a quiet month for me, hols, golf and general laziness!
I entered 19 trades and am positive around 50 points.
I have made some errors in my stops and I will share them.
IMHO, stops should be trailed rapidly to break even then should be slackened to let the trade run.
In the case of 3 trades not following that fundamental strategy has cost me dear, almost 100 points! Ouch!!!!
As far as my forays into the indices I am break even, well, slightly positive. I know most of you do not like these trades but for me there is huge potential with a very simple formula. It is certainly not for those of a nervous disposition! It requires a huge amount of concentration and screen watching. but the results can be spectacular.
At the moment I am still long in BG,(going well, stop @ BE) IRV (Flat) and VED (going very well, stop @ BE)
Good trading
Dave
Hello everyone new ones or old ones
Did not post anything yesterday as was busy moving house and left all my positions to my colleague. but still managed to get in and out of blt, but apart from that nothing i am long in was moving yesterday.
feel a lil withdrawn at the moment because i have only got a small amount of anto left from last week (the only one that is active and going the right direction today). looking to buy avz and cs. both have interesting graph, anyone any thoughts?
kim
Did not post anything yesterday as was busy moving house and left all my positions to my colleague. but still managed to get in and out of blt, but apart from that nothing i am long in was moving yesterday.
feel a lil withdrawn at the moment because i have only got a small amount of anto left from last week (the only one that is active and going the right direction today). looking to buy avz and cs. both have interesting graph, anyone any thoughts?
kim
barjon
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mornin' dave - all very quiet on here lately
Was your ouch because you didn't have a stop or because you set them in the "wrong" place?
I tend not to operate mechanical stoploss nowadays (just about got the discipline to pull out when trade is failing - but not always, I still let myself down sometimes
). Still use mechanical stop on profitable exits when i've decided to close - it's worth a couple of points to benefit from a continuation of the move if my decision was premature. I'll take profits on half position when I've got 1:1+ then set a mechanical stop on the remainder at entry price to lock in that profit.
Still with you on bg also emg and anto long. no shorts on the horizon as yet although some brewing.
good trading
jon
Was your ouch because you didn't have a stop or because you set them in the "wrong" place?
I tend not to operate mechanical stoploss nowadays (just about got the discipline to pull out when trade is failing - but not always, I still let myself down sometimes
). Still use mechanical stop on profitable exits when i've decided to close - it's worth a couple of points to benefit from a continuation of the move if my decision was premature. I'll take profits on half position when I've got 1:1+ then set a mechanical stop on the remainder at entry price to lock in that profit.Still with you on bg also emg and anto long. no shorts on the horizon as yet although some brewing.
good trading
jon
Hi all:
Jon,
my ouch was because I set my stops too tight and after they were hit the stocks rose considerably! Hence my comments about stops.
Kim,
With you on AVZ, would like to see another close above the 5ma though.
CS., not too sure about that one, it is above the 5 & 20ma, within a trading channel and closing on the upper Boll band. I would want to see what develops with that one.
Jon,
my ouch was because I set my stops too tight and after they were hit the stocks rose considerably! Hence my comments about stops.
Kim,
With you on AVZ, would like to see another close above the 5ma though.
CS., not too sure about that one, it is above the 5 & 20ma, within a trading channel and closing on the upper Boll band. I would want to see what develops with that one.
barjon
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kim
ezj, cs you've obviously got a much bigger stable block in this new mansion of yours (hope the move went well) to be straying beyond ftse100.
not sure about avz - probably want see more dust settle before thinking about direction.
don't forget anto interim results due 7/9 in case you're so busy getting things straight in the house.
good trading
jon
ezj, cs
you've obviously got a much bigger stable block in this new mansion of yours (hope the move went well) to be straying beyond ftse100.not sure about avz - probably want see more dust settle before thinking about direction.
don't forget anto interim results due 7/9 in case you're so busy getting things straight in the house.
good trading
jon
Hi Everyone,
No trades to enter or exit over the last couple of days. This morning has been busy though - unfortunately closing out losses.
Closed HNS short @ 588.5 (opened @ 573.15(xd) on 23/8). Sharp jump overnight, so by 9am it was at my stop out level. Suspect that the jump may be over speculation that aggregates will be in demand following US hurricane - nothing on the newswires. Didn't want to risk a rise beyond my stop. Price has subsequently tanked
Closed IHG short @ 750.75 (opened @ 741.25 on 22/8). Broker upgrade this morning, suspect price will rise further in run up to interims next week. Daily stochastic suggests rise may have some way to go.
Closed DXNS short @ 151.75 (opened @ 149.3(xd) on 12/8). No clear downtrend established. Daily stochastic suggests rise may be imminent, so decided to exit with small-ish loss.
Was looking to go long in CBRY today but (sod's law) price leapt overnight & is now too high to enter comfortably. Will have to wait & see on this one.
Late July & August have been pretty lousy for me. On analysing trades, I seem to be making more mistakes in identifying trades/directions. Last time I did the analysis I'd invariably got this right but often exited trades too soon. Suspect these errors may be partly due to low summer volumes giving false signals. Also, after too many trades signalled recently, decided to tighten my "filter" criteria & only choose trades where weekly MACD signal is in direction of a long term price trend (i.e. > 6 months), or where there is no clear overall trend. I'm hoping this will improve my accuracy.
Current position:
Short BATS, EMG, JMAT, SGE; Long CPI (one bright spot today), SBRY & TATE
I'm expecting to close the BATS trade some time today.
BTW re stops. I concluded quite a while ago that it was best just to leave stops where I set them originally, until ready to exit a trade. By moving them up I found that I was often being stopped out before the REAL profits came. So far, I don't think this policy has caused me any problems.
Good trading,
Mark
No trades to enter or exit over the last couple of days. This morning has been busy though - unfortunately closing out losses.
Closed HNS short @ 588.5 (opened @ 573.15(xd) on 23/8). Sharp jump overnight, so by 9am it was at my stop out level. Suspect that the jump may be over speculation that aggregates will be in demand following US hurricane - nothing on the newswires. Didn't want to risk a rise beyond my stop. Price has subsequently tanked
Closed IHG short @ 750.75 (opened @ 741.25 on 22/8). Broker upgrade this morning, suspect price will rise further in run up to interims next week. Daily stochastic suggests rise may have some way to go.
Closed DXNS short @ 151.75 (opened @ 149.3(xd) on 12/8). No clear downtrend established. Daily stochastic suggests rise may be imminent, so decided to exit with small-ish loss.
Was looking to go long in CBRY today but (sod's law) price leapt overnight & is now too high to enter comfortably. Will have to wait & see on this one.
Late July & August have been pretty lousy for me. On analysing trades, I seem to be making more mistakes in identifying trades/directions. Last time I did the analysis I'd invariably got this right but often exited trades too soon. Suspect these errors may be partly due to low summer volumes giving false signals. Also, after too many trades signalled recently, decided to tighten my "filter" criteria & only choose trades where weekly MACD signal is in direction of a long term price trend (i.e. > 6 months), or where there is no clear overall trend. I'm hoping this will improve my accuracy.
Current position:
Short BATS, EMG, JMAT, SGE; Long CPI (one bright spot today), SBRY & TATE
I'm expecting to close the BATS trade some time today.
BTW re stops. I concluded quite a while ago that it was best just to leave stops where I set them originally, until ready to exit a trade. By moving them up I found that I was often being stopped out before the REAL profits came. So far, I don't think this policy has caused me any problems.
Good trading,
Mark
barjon
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mark
Have you checked back on market conditions that maintained during your good and bad periods? You may find something to show when your method is most productive and when to stand clear (or reduce position size).
btw seen aything on the wires to explain boc rise today?
good trading
jon
Have you checked back on market conditions that maintained during your good and bad periods? You may find something to show when your method is most productive and when to stand clear (or reduce position size).
btw seen aything on the wires to explain boc rise today?
good trading
jon
Hi Jon,barjon said:
Nothing new on BOC that I can see. There seem to be quite a few sharp movements today. Probably lots of city boys coming back to their desks after the hols.
I haven't yet studied impact of market conditions on trading. I don't think I've got a large enough sample to do that yet. I'm taking a break in early November & will be able to look back at my trades with a more dispassionate view then, I think. Bit wary of trying to read too much into too little and making a knee jerk reaction.
Thanks,
Mark
barjon
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mark
mmm, you certainly need a big enough sample - i review every 50 trades and then every 50 longs and every 50 shorts. no surprise that my results suffer when i'm fighting the market and that's why i move to half positions for trades against market direction. could argue that i'd be better not taking such trades at all - but i do so enjoy it :cheesy:
cheers
jon
mmm, you certainly need a big enough sample - i review every 50 trades and then every 50 longs and every 50 shorts. no surprise that my results suffer when i'm fighting the market and that's why i move to half positions for trades against market direction. could argue that i'd be better not taking such trades at all - but i do so enjoy it :cheesy:
cheers
jon
barjon said:kim
ezj, cs
not sure about avz - probably want see more dust settle before thinking about direction.
don't forget anto interim results due 7/9 in case you're so busy getting things straight in the house.
good trading
jon
thanks jon,
yeah i bought some at 370 and now losing, guess i will soon get stopped out.
and thanks for your info re anto.
anythin interesting on your radar mate
kim
Hi Jon,barjon said:
I'll bear that point in mind but I do focus on individual stocks and the trend on any given stock could be with or against the overall market, though obviously it's more liekly to be with it. I think the last 6 weeks have been tricky. The FTSE closed on 26th August at a lower level (5230) than it closed on 14th July (5255), so you can argue that it's been fairly directionless over that period.
In fact, it was rising through to mid-August, corrected back in 2nd half of August & now looks like it's on the rise again. I suspect it's that fall back that gave me lots of false short signals. I'll bet volume was low over that period - I'll have to find some figures to check that. If I'm right, my signals should work better in September, with people back at work. Time will tell!
Probably the lesson is: go on holiday when the city boys do!
Good trading,
Mark
