A system which does not require to think*

Doctor Leo

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This system had been originally designed as an intermediate step in my investigations workflow, so let's consider it as a side-product which survived the lab. ;)
The system is based on too-well-known double tops and double bottoms patterns, the only difference is that it's completely formalized, there's no room to guess whether it is a pattern or not.

Here you are, in just 5 steps.

1. Let's call an upper cardinal point the following high:

h(-2) < h(-1) < h(0) > h(1) > h(2),
where h(i) represent highs of consequent bars, h(2) is the high of the last closed bar, thus h(0) is the upper cardinal point 2 bars ago (they are always two bars behind).

2. Respectively, a lower cardinal point conforms to the following formula:

l(-2) > l(-1) > l(0) < l(1) < l(2).

3. Now let's find one of the following patterns: a) a lower cardinal point between two upper ones or b) an upper cardinal point between two lower ones in strict consequence.

4. As we've found a pattern we place a stop sell order at a small distance below the lower cardinal point (case 3a) or a stop buy order at a small distance above the upper cardinal point (case 3b). We place stops at the highest of upper cardinal points (case 3a) or at the lowest of lower cardinal points (case 3b).

5. We move stops at new upper (case 3a) or lower (case 3b) cardinal points as they appear.

That's all. I've been trading this for a bit more than half a year quite successfully, although I should notice that I used some additional rules, for instance I was filtering out some entries if a stop would become greater than a pre-defined critical level, or did something else, but even in its vulgar purity the stuff described above just works. Suppose it could be of some use for, say, beginners.

Eh, almost forgot - I'm trading only FOREX, so I do not know if this works with other instruments, would be pleased to hear about it.
 
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Hi there,

I would be interested to know in which time frame(s) you have been trading this, and what success ratio you have observed.

Also, could you elaborate on the meaining of strict? Does it mean 'no bars in between'; and likewise, does it mean that the (cardinal point) patterns may not overlap?

Thanks for sharing...
CJ
 
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By strict I mean that there're no other cardinal points in the aforementioned three-points pattern. Say, if you have one upper, then two lowers and then an upper cardinal point again it's not a sell pattern.

I've traded H1 with real money and paper-traded 5-minutes and daily. H1 suits me most, as with 5-minutes you have to sit stuck to the monitor all day long, and with daily you've got stops arount 200 points and more, and both is not suitable for me. But the system works on all these timeframes. With 5-minutes you've got more losers, but stops are really small.

With H1 I earned about 2500+ pips from September, 2005 till March, 2006, maximum drawdown was 400 points, but I used some additional criteria for approving patterns. Plain system should be expected to bring some 1000+ pips for the same period with approx. the same 400 pips drawdown.
 
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Thanks for your answers.

Real dumb question: What is 'H1'? If I should know this, I apologise.

Can the cardinal patterns overlap, ex. the first cardinal top be part of the second cardinal bottom (maybe overlapping a bar or two)?

All the best...
CJ
 
Sure they may ovrelap but if you read the algorythm carefully you realize that the minimum distance betwee them can not be one or two bars.

H1 is 1 hour timeframe. Similarly M5 is five minutes, D1 - daily and so on.
 
Doctor Leo said:
H1 is 1 hour timeframe. Similarly M5 is five minutes, D1 - daily and so on.

Duh, I knew that... ahm... :eek:

Thanks for answering.
CJ
 
Doctor Leo said:
Sure they may ovrelap but if you read the algorythm carefully you realize that the minimum distance betwee them can not be one or two bars.

As you are operating on Highs and Lows, nothing to hinder for that, as far as I can see.
See the example in the pic:
 

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Ah, yes, I thought you meant consequent points of the same nature, i.e. lowers or uppers. In the situation you've illustrated, BTW, if (or, rather, when) you observe next lower CP (cardinal point) there'll be NO buy order, as you'll have at least two upper CPs between two lowers. I hope I'm clear now.
 
Doctor Leo said:
Ah, yes, I thought you meant consequent points of the same nature, i.e. lowers or uppers. In the situation you've illustrated, BTW, if (or, rather, when) you observe next lower CP (cardinal point) there'll be NO buy order, as you'll have at least two upper CPs between two lowers. I hope I'm clear now.

Yes, perfectly, thanks for clarifying.

Last point (I hope): I gather that, even though you initially compared this to double tops, there is no criteria of ex. two upper CPs (with a lower in between) actually being close in height, i.e. resembling a traditional double top. They could as easily be in, say, a steep down trend, as per picture, right?

Thanks for sharing.
 

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Right. In fact, you're now talking about tweaks to the system that I used. But I don't want to share my further ideas in public. One thing I can say - you're on the right way.
 
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