95% failure rate...

[arabianights]

I really cant understand why a few of you here are getting your knickers in a twist. Sorry guys but if I'm gonna speak my mind I'd say I'm getting a tad suspicious of some of the posters against the idea, with respect but are they the kind of people that withdraw money from there accounts regularly or do they keep topping them up.

And this is exactly why this is a bad idea

 

[trader_dante]

Trader dante, I'd listen to you any day mate, although more than that, I would actually implement it to the letter without tweaking and changing.

There are a few (select) others that I would also take on board and do the same.

Ah, cheers mate!

You know, when all is said and done, I make atrocious calls from time to time and have been known to give somewhat controversial advice but I am making money and when I was learning this game, I wanted to lean on the advice of someone that was. Of all the trading books I read and advice I followed, I didn't become profitable until I started listening to a real trader who has walked the walk (J16).

End of day: if I was buying a Ferrari, I would rather listen to someone that owned one rather than someone that had read all about them and test driven one a couple of times. Bit of a neanderthal analogy because owners can be biased etc but I think it gives the impression of my point...

 

[TomTom]

Lee so you offer trading tuition then ?
What trading platforms do you use ?
Do you have a prime broker ?
What is the lowest commission fees for 5000 trips per month ? SPX
Is your teaching methods machanical ?
How much do you charge for this service ?

 

[trader_dante]

Lee so you offer trading tuition then ?
What trading platforms do you use ?
Do you have a prime broker ?
What is the lowest commission fees for 5000 trips per month ? SPX
Is your teaching methods machanical ?
How much do you charge for this service ?

WTF?!

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Lee so you offer trading tuition then ?
What trading platforms do you use ?
Do you have a prime broker ?
What is the lowest commission fees for 5000 trips per month ? SPX
Is your teaching methods machanical ?
How much do you charge for this service ?

Simply put.

The guys a c0ck.



Take a look at some his posts...if you can be bothered to waste some time on this pathetic individual.

I think I see him in one of my fav music vids


YouTube - Song To Say Goodbye - Placebo

Actually, dont bother, he's a waste of skin.:innocent:

 

[gamma]

I'm with you mate. I was in touch with a firm a while back and volunteered to do live trading for them infront of an audience of people. They looked at me like I was on crack and said "we've contacted several big names in terms of gurus in the trading world and none of them will put themselves on the line like that". I was dumbfounded by this. These people teach trading and supposedly make money but just not infront of other people?

I agree with everything you say above, but there is one point I would like to bring up.
When you are being watched by an audience, it puts tremendous pressure on you to trade.
I know good traders who will not trade live, not because they are fakes or make their money from teaching, they do not teach at all.But simply cannot not and do not wish to teach.
If you are a good trader and plan your trades what are the chances that your criteria will be met the day you decide to trade live in front of an audience?

 

[Lee Shepherd]

I agree with everything you say above, but there is one point I would like to bring up.
When you are being watched by an audience, it puts tremendous pressure on you to trade.
I know good traders who will not trade live, not because they are fakes or make their money from teaching, they do not teach at all.But simply cannot not and do not wish to teach.
If you are a good trader and plan your trades what are the chances that your criteria will be met the day you decide to trade live in front of an audience?

Hi mate,

Thats the point exactly, if they live trade then the audience can see how its done, at the end of the day its how you trade, this is how a good trader can tell a bad one.

Every trader has bad days, but no days bad trading.

Its all about habit forming, when you get set in a pattern you follow it, this works for good and bad of course. New/poor traders are never consistant and swap and change methods constantly through desperation and failed hope, whereas an experienced trader will keep at it with the upmost persistance.

If they have a system, why not test it live in front of an audience?? If they dont like being watched or interupted then have a speaker to do the talk and a trader to do the trades...best of both worlds.

If you traded in a live pit or office then you'd have to get over the fact of noise, shouting, people dashing about and also people taking a sneaky peek over your shoulder let alone the odd ball of scrunched up paper bouncing off your head. But who cares, as long as your making money, thats all that counts.

 

[trader_dante]

I agree with everything you say above, but there is one point I would like to bring up.
When you are being watched by an audience, it puts tremendous pressure on you to trade.
I know good traders who will not trade live, not because they are fakes or make their money from teaching, they do not teach at all.But simply cannot not and do not wish to teach.
If you are a good trader and plan your trades what are the chances that your criteria will be met the day you decide to trade live in front of an audience?

Very good point and the main reason why I haven't done a live trading session. Because inevitably I would invite a load of people who would sit there bored stiff. I watch the market 24/7 but trade about once or twice a week at the moment (if that). The other morning I drove into the office at 4am when I saw the Dollar setting up in the Asian session and then got in only to see my entry criteria not fulfilled. So, yes, an excellent point. Would probably only work for a scalper or short term trader and they might not be good teachers or even want to teach and you are right - they might not relish the added pressure. All great points.

 

[foredog]

Very good point and the main reason why I haven't done a live trading session. Because inevitably I would invite a load of people who would sit there bored stiff. I watch the market 24/7 but trade about once or twice a week at the moment (if that). The other morning I drove into the office at 4am when I saw the Dollar setting up in the Asian session and then got in only to see my entry criteria not fulfilled. So, yes, an excellent point. Would probably only work for a scalper or short term trader and they might not be good teachers or even want to teach and you are right - they might not relish the added pressure. All great points.

Can you not get remote access for out of hours? Saves the drive for nothing?

 

[trader_dante]

Can you not get remote access for out of hours? Saves the drive for nothing?

Not yet...

 

[foredog]

Ah, how about a blue button? make them get up instead..ha ha

 

[luckyd1976]

Trader dante, I'd listen to you any day mate, although more than that, I would actually implement it to the letter without tweaking and changing.

There are a few (select) others that I would also take on board and do the same.

Lee,

The others on this board you would implement???

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Lee,

The others on this board you would implement???

JayDee

Only know from this site and have never spoken to directly outside this forum, however, he clearly has good solid experience and knows his onions.

Ceydababy

Know him personally, met him through this site and since have caught up for drinks on many occassions. A great all rounder who is solid about risk management, great with tweaking strategies, has helped me before with crunching 18 years worth of data with his excellent excell skills and is somewhat generous with his time on certain subjects.


BrutusDog

Again have met personally for drinks and will do so again. Another great all rounder who is also good with money management and understanding and forming new strats to fit the market climate.

Firewalker

Having traded along side him in real time every day for many months I have seen first hand that this guy can trade solidly through many scenarios and is very consistant in his methods. Also is very giving with his time (although not of late).

 

[luckyd1976]

JayDee

Only know from this site and have never spoken to directly outside this forum, however, he clearly has good solid experience and knows his onions.

Ceydababy

Know him personally, met him through this site and since have caught up for drinks on many occassions. A great all rounder who is solid about risk management, great with tweaking strategies, has helped me before with crunching 18 years worth of data with his excellent excell skills and is somewhat generous with his time on certain subjects.


BrutusDog

Again have met personally for drinks and will do so again. Another great all rounder who is also good with money management and understanding and forming new strats to fit the market climate.

Firewalker

Having traded along side him in real time every day for many months I have seen first hand that this guy can trade solidly through many scenarios and is very consistant in his methods. Also is very giving with his time (although not of late).

Good stuff thanks

 

[Dinos]

Whilst this question isn't directed at me I would say this. If you checked out that FW Live TRading thread before it buggered off to Traders Lab or wherever they are now you would see how certain members skewed calls and trades in order to make hemselves look good.

Of all the people involved on that live call nonsense none of them ever had a down day. You would see people run 100 points offside, have to make their wifes dinner, forget to put a stop in and wow they held it for 100 points profit. Seriously it was a joke.


HI Cey, I to was part of that live trading thread along with yourself and a few others, yes it did go to Traderslab, I joined but having become aware of a few "rogue" calls, I rarely posted any calls, in fact I would say I have intentionally distanced myself from most forums these days, I float around amusing myself in between trades, reading material/profitable system etc etc etc. Nothing of what I read would encourage me to change my trading habits/style. I have been trading for 13 years now, full time time for 8 years and enjoy every bit of it, the freedom, the challenge, the rewards and the worry when I get it wrong.

I personally couldn't give a sh*t, whether Joe Bloggs said he'd made 100 points, rode a -100 negative position to a +200 profit, I take it all with a pinch of salt. I would expect (with the exception of a few) nobody here knows anybody, you could say what you like, promote yourself to be a kudos trader etc etc etc.

I have multiple systems I trade for different markets and conditions, these I have developed like other serious traders over years of studying, pondering, backtesting and evolving. My prime issue, is to generate sufficient income from my trading, keep my losses to a minimum to have a lifestyle I am comfortable with, and of late keep my self to myself and I have taken a concious decision to contribute less to these boards as I have previously done.

I now attend forums for fun and interest and not expect to gain anything that would change my perspective of how I trade, we all have our own methods and systems, if you have it right, why would you bother being here all the time contributing etc etc.

I have being involved in live trading, with the benefit of hindsight, I ask myself why the hell did I bother, what did it achieve, absolutely nothing, only started questioning my own trading ability and decisions.

I found that when I visited boards/forums my trading suffered, now I trade, earn my crust, and if I feel I want to I'll have a look around the threads, I do for a bit of fun amusement not serious trading information.

Might be putting my neck on the line here, serious and profitable traders/investors do not need forums, they know what they want, how to acheive it and deliver the rewards, they don't need to access sites like these to gain an insite into how to trade, they don't need to self promote.

JUst my two penneth

 

[rols]

Whilst this question isn't directed at me I would say this. If you checked out that FW Live TRading thread before it buggered off to Traders Lab or wherever they are now you would see how certain members skewed calls and trades in order to make hemselves look good.

Of all the people involved on that live call nonsense none of them ever had a down day. You would see people run 100 points offside, have to make their wifes dinner, forget to put a stop in and wow they held it for 100 points profit. Seriously it was a joke.


HI Cey, I to was part of that live trading thread along with yourself and a few others, yes it did go to Traderslab, I joined but having become aware of a few "rogue" calls, I rarely posted any calls, in fact I would say I have intentionally distanced myself from most forums these days, I float around amusing myself in between trades, reading material/profitable system etc etc etc. Nothing of what I read would encourage me to change my trading habits/style. I have been trading for 13 years now, full time time for 8 years and enjoy every bit of it, the freedom, the challenge, the rewards and the worry when I get it wrong.

I personally couldn't give a sh*t, whether Joe Bloggs said he'd made 100 points, rode a -100 negative position to a +200 profit, I take it all with a pinch of salt. I would expect (with the exception of a few) nobody here knows anybody, you could say what you like, promote yourself to be a kudos trader etc etc etc.

I have multiple systems I trade for different markets and conditions, these I have developed like other serious traders over years of studying, pondering, backtesting and evolving. My prime issue, is to generate sufficient income from my trading, keep my losses to a minimum to have a lifestyle I am comfortable with, and of late keep my self to myself and I have taken a concious decision to contribute less to these boards as I have previously done.

I now attend forums for fun and interest and not expect to gain anything that would change my perspective of how I trade, we all have our own methods and systems, if you have it right, why would you bother being here all the time contributing etc etc.

I have being involved in live trading, with the benefit of hindsight, I ask myself why the hell did I bother, what did it achieve, absolutely nothing, only started questioning my own trading ability and decisions.

I found that when I visited boards/forums my trading suffered, now I trade, earn my crust, and if I feel I want to I'll have a look around the threads, I do for a bit of fun amusement not serious trading information.

Might be putting my neck on the line here, serious and profitable traders/investors do not need forums, they know what they want, how to acheive it and deliver the rewards, they don't need to access sites like these to gain an insite into how to trade, they don't need to self promote.

JUst my two penneth

I am reminded of a certain Frenchman

Généralement, les gens qui savant peu parlent becoup, et les gens qui savant beaucoup parlent peu.:

Generally speaking, the people who know little speak a lot and the people who know a lot speak little. - Rousseau

 

[Dinos]

I am reminded of a certain Frenchman

Généralement, les gens qui savant peu parlent becoup, et les gens qui savant beaucoup parlent peu.:

Generally speaking, the people who know little speak a lot and the people who know a lot speak little. - Rousseau[/QUOTE]


Damn, never thought of putting it like that, could have saved getting sore fingers typing, hehe

 

[OPGI]

Yes, 95% failurerate. This has three reasons.

The question is, whether trading is a game of skill, just like poker, or is it a game of luck, just like roulette.The similarities between trading and poker or roulette are obvious. The broker always wins, just like "the house", the casino is always winning.

Since most traders, I have heard 95%, is loosing money in the long term, this matches the 95% loosers in the online pokerscenes. Maybe the 95% of the traders are playing roulette and only 5% plays good poker? Good pokerplayers seem to estimate the right betsize and the odds to win. Isn't that like positioning and risk- and moneymanagement?

Just like playing roulette is exiting for lots of people trading is alike. This is reason nr.1
Most traders just like the game, and playing has some value.

The second reason is, the striking reality, that most trades are produced by bots. Estimates indicate, that already 80% of all trades are executed without any human interference.
Remember the sixties: people start laughing when a machine played chess. Even the former worldchampion Dr. Max Euwe, who was a professor in informatica himself said, that "the human intuition shall always be superior to the machine in playing chess".
Today even the worldchampion cannot beat the computer anymore!

The third reason is, that there is indeed predictive value in indicators, but the evidence is not well scientifically documented. The predictive value is not obvious to the human nature, despite what most traders believe!
Only a computer is able to combine all information available in a split second and execute trades based on that information, even before the human eye can see it. When a human being starts to react, the situation is already changed.

My conclusion is, that today we just face a battle of programming. This whole devellopment results in smaller positions and far more trades. The small percentage of traders who still can make their money by hand will be facing losses in the very near future. Mark my words.



May God bless you,



OPGI

 

[Jaydee]

The second reason is, the striking reality, that most trades are produced by bots. Estimates indicate, that already 80% of all trades are executed without any human interference.


The third reason is, that there is indeed predictive value in indicators, but the evidence is not well scientifically documented. The predictive value is not obvious to the human nature, despite what most traders believe!
Only a computer is able to combine all information available in a split second and execute trades based on that information, even before the human eye can see it. When a human being starts to react, the situation is already changed.

I agree with your odds based theory of trading (like poker as you said). However, what you said about 80% of orders being done by machines is slightly out of context with what happens in the market:

First of all, 80% of trades may be done by machines but the volume traded has only increased slightly from machine trades whereas the number of transactions has increased dramatically. This implies that most of the transactions run through by machines are time sliced into very small shapes (volumes). Watch the FTSE 100 stocks orderbooks between 4 and 4:30pm to see what I mean. Whereas 1 trade used to be 10,000 shares - it's now 100 trades of 100 shares done by an algorithm instead, for example. Therefore, the machines don't contribute in as much of a way as you would think.

Secondly, machines running through trades are not all black boxes (i.e. the algorithm is autonomous and finds and places trades in line with how it has been programmed), many are just facilitating Execution Traders who sit at banks, hedge funds, pension funds, etc; pushing through large trades at the fund managers say so. It is these algorithms which fill large basket trades and other orders by slicing the order into small chunks so as not to move the price considerably - they are not fully automated like a black box, the trader sets the parameters such as aggression ratio, time period, etc. The percentage of pure black box algorithms is considerably smaller than the 80% you mention.

As the understanding of neural networks and econometrics expands, you may see more pure black boxes trading for profit but we are still a long way from the human trader being removed from the trading process completely.

 

[jeffsmith]

Forex trading looks easy but of course its not and why would it be when the rewards are so big? If you accept you have to have the willingness to learn and apply yourself with discipline, your efforts will be well rewarded.